Can Iowa win?

IOWA CITY — Michigan has held steady as a 21-point favorite. This isn't 1977, but that is a Michigan-Iowa point spread from the days of disco.

Iowa has lost its last two games and hasn't won at Kinnick Stadium since Sept. 10. The Hawkeyes (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) will be without offensive tackle Cole Croston for a second consecutive week. No. 3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) is keeping track of quarterbacks it has knocked out of games this season.

This isn't the time to let them see you sweat, and the Hawkeyes fully grasp that as they ready to step to their biggest stage of the season. The Wolverines are the No. 3 team in the country with serious College Football Playoff aspirations. It's a 7:12 p.m. kickoff and a 'Black Out.' Kinnick Stadium is sold out. And ABC's top crew, Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit and Sam Ponder, is on hand.

The Hawkeyes said the right things Tuesday.

'We all believe that we can win,' outside linebacker Ben Niemann said. 'We all realize that pretty much nobody outside of this building is giving us a chance, but the people inside this building matter. We're doing everything we can this week to prepare to win the game.'

This is a gargantuan task. In its second season under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines already are knocking on the door of Urban Meyer and Ohio State's empire. Michigan has three quality victories this season (Colorado, Penn State and Wisconsin). You just watched Iowa get thrashed by Penn State, 41-14. Michigan did almost exactly that to the Nittany Lions, beating them 49-10 on Sept. 24.

'It's a new week, new game, new opportunity,' Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said. '. . . All we can do is focus on what we can do, which is practice and prepare as hard as we can, then we've got to go out and compete on Saturday night, knowing that we're playing a really good football team, but we've played some good teams this year already. You've got to go out and do as well as you can and then go from there, but yeah, we almost have to play a mistake-free game, if you will. That's certainly a starting point because they don't open the door very often for you.'

The point spread this week is news in and of itself. The last time Iowa was a 20-plus point underdog was against Nebraska in 2000. According to goldsheet.com, Iowa has been a 20-point dog at Kinnick only three times under Ferentz and all three happened in 1999, when Iowa struggled to a 1-10 record in Ferentz's first season.

Besides the comparative result against Penn State, the rankings and the 21-point spread, there are a few other factors that point to a long Saturday night for Iowa. Michigan is second in the Big Ten with 17 plays of 40-plus yards. Iowa is 12th in the league with 13 40-plus plays allowed, five of which came against Penn State. Michigan is the No. 1 defense in the Big Ten, allowing just 246.3 yards a game. Iowa's offense is 12th in the league with 335.7 yards a game.

The offense's slump against defenses that aren't Miami (Ohio), Iowa State and Purdue didn't pair well with last week's collapse of the defense, which allowed Penn State 599 yards of total offense, the second-most yards in Ferentz's 18-plus seasons (604 vs. Wisconsin is the most).

'It's going to come down to how we come out and play,' cornerback Desmond King said. 'That's what it's all about. We can't predict anything. No one knows what's going to happen. It's happened to a lot of teams in the past, where a ranked team went down to an unranked team. We have our best game and they don't, that's how it's going to go down.'

The excitement factor could kick in for Iowa. Never mind the fact that Michigan has outscored its last four opponents 210-34 while Iowa has been outscored by its last four 100-86. It's the No. 3 team in the country on their turf for a Saturday night game on ABC.

'I was texting with my brother last night and I wrote, just making a joke, 'This just in: Michigan is good,'' defensive end Parker Hesse said. 'The only thing he texted me back was when Applachian State beat them (34-32 in 2007) they were 35-point underdogs.

'I don't know if he meant it to be motivational to me or if he said it because it was a fact or something, but it really struck me, that's why sports are so cool. It doesn't matter who they are, it doesn't matter if they've won 55 straight games, Saturday night, both teams line up and both teams have to play the game. They have to prove it and we have the opportunity to take something from them.'

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com