Bowl projections: One final look

It's possible an eligible Big Ten team could get left without a bowl game when full pairings are announced on Sunday. The same goes for the Southeastern Conference. However, it's likely both leagues meet their bowl quota and everyone ends up happy later Sunday night.

The Big Ten has 10 bowl-eligible teams and officially nine bowl slots. Depending on how the matrix falls in place, one team (probably Illinois) could get left out. If the Big Ten's top non-champion (Michigan State) is rated ahead of the SEC's top non-champion (Mississippi State) in the final poll, Michigan State will head to the Orange Bowl. But the Big Ten loses its Citrus Bowl slot to the ACC if that happens. However if Alabama shockingly loses to Missouri or if the College Football Playoff panel shifts gears and lifts Mississippi State ahead of Michigan State, the Spartans head to another top bowl (Cotton, Fiesta, Peach) and the Citrus Bowl is preserved for the Big Ten.

The Orange-Citrus arrangement is unusual. In hindsight, maybe the Big Ten should have added a clause where if the ACC gains two teams in the top six bowls (like this year), the Citrus-ACC arrangement should be voided. But it's not the case.

The Big 12 could rescue a potential Big Ten outsider if the Citrus gets skipped. The Big 12 boasts only six bowl-eligible teams and has seven bowl slots. If the Big 12 advances two teams in the New Year's Six, that leaves two open bowls. Either one would be thrilled to have a Big Ten participant.

So on the verge of the championship weekend, here's a final stab at bowl projections. All the official pairings will be announced Sunday.

NEW YEAR'S SIX

Sugar

- 1. Alabama vs. 4. TCU (playoff)

Rose

- 2. Oregon vs. 3. Florida State (playoff)

Orange

- Georgia Tech vs. Michigan State

Cotton

- Kansas State vs. Ole Miss

Fiesta

- Arizona vs. Boise State

Peach

- Mississippi State vs. Wisconsin

BIG TEN BOWLS

Outback

- Ohio State vs. Georgia

Holiday

- Minnesota vs. USC

Foster Farms

- Nebraska vs. Stanford

Music City

- Iowa vs. Tennessee

Pinstripe

- Penn State vs. Boston College

Quick Lane

- Maryland vs. North Carolina

Heart of Dallas

- Rutgers vs. Louisiana Tech

Cactus

- Washington vs. Illinois (Big 12 replacement)

POWER 5 BOWLS

Citrus

- Missouri vs. Clemson

Taxslayer

- Auburn vs. Notre Dame

Belk

- South Carolina vs. North Carolina State

Texas

- Texas A&M vs. Texas

Liberty

- LSU vs. Oklahoma

Birmingham

- Florida vs. Memphis

Independence

- Arkansas vs. Pittsburgh

Alamo

- Baylor vs. UCLA

Russell

- West Virginia vs. Louisville

Armed Forces

- Houston vs. Air Force (Big 12/Army replacement)

Sun

- Arizona State vs. Duke

Las Vegas

- Utah vs. Colorado State

Bitcoin

- Miami vs. Central Florida

Military

- Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

OTHERS

Miami Beach

- BYU vs. East Carolina

Poinsettia

- San Diego State vs. Navy

Hawaii

- Fresno State vs. Rice

Potato

- Nevada vs. Western Michigan

New Mexico

- Utah State vs. UTEP

New Orleans

- Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Middle Tennessee State (Air Force replacement)

GoDaddy

- Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green

Camellia

- South Alabama vs. Central Michigan

Boca Raton

- Western Kentucky vs. Toledo

Bahamas

- Marshall vs. Northern Illinois

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com