Bowl projections: B1G’s Orange/Citrus dilemma

When the Bowl Championship Series was discarded like a four of clubs in a game of two-card guts, college football commissioners were out to make the best deals as possible for their leagues. Bowl officials thought likewise.

After a string of ACC match-ups against smaller conference qualifiers, the Orange Bowl long was anxious for better made-for-television match-ups. So it struck a mutually beneficial arrangement with the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame.

Over a 12-year period, the Orange Bowl will host a national semifinal four times. Of the Orange Bowl's other eight games, the top ACC non-playoff qualifier is guaranteed one slot. It will face a team from the Big Ten three times, an SEC squad three times and Notre Dame twice. It's up to the playoff selection committee to select the annual match-up, but the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame are guaranteed those games. The one caveat is neither the Big Ten nor the SEC would send its champion to the Orange Bowl if either doesn't qualify for the four-team playoff.

The Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl (formerly known as the Capital One Bowl) struck its own deal. The years the Orange Bowl plucks a Big Ten squad, the Citrus Bowl replaces the Big Ten with an ACC squad. That keeps a possible highly ranked ACC squad from slipping down the bowl lineup and could prevent an uneven Big Ten-SEC game.

When BCS bowls could extend their own invitations, Big Ten teams often earned a second major slot because of its high visibility and large traveling fan bases. The league's bowl record suffered with teams moving up one slot in the order because of it. But now a committee picks the upper six bowls so the Big Ten won't face that advantage or disadvantage.

That brings us to this year. The Big Ten boasts two top-tier squads in Michigan State and Ohio State. It appears to have two other competitive teams slightly behind in Nebraska and Wisconsin. Then there's a group of teams that could finish anywhere from 9-3 to 6-6.

If it wins out, the Ohio State-Michigan State winner has a decent shot at a playoff spot. The loser - or West Division favorite Nebraska - will be competitive for a major bowl berth. But for the sake of match-ups (and if a second team is worthy), it might make sense for the Big Ten to request its Orange Bowl slot this year and skip the Citrus Bowl. Or, it might have value for the Big Ten to play in just one of the six major bowls.

On a side note, Nebraska has played in a Florida bowl each year since joining the Big Ten in 2011. If the Cornhuskers don't qualify for a major bowl, their fans might prefer a trip to the Holiday Bowl to a third Citrus Bowl berth in four years.

Here are my bowl projections for this year. Yes, I'm thinking Florida State loses at least one game and falls out of the playoff field.

NEW YEAR'S SIX MATCH-UPS

SUGAR (semifinal)

- 1. Mississippi State vs. 4. Michigan State

ROSE (semifinal)

- 2. Oregon vs. 3. Notre Dame

COTTON (at-large vs. at-large/top non-power five)

- TCU vs. Alabama

ORANGE (ACC vs. SEC/B1G/Notre Dame)

- Florida State vs. Ohio State

FIESTA (at-large vs. at-large/top non-power five)

- Arizona State vs. Kansas State

PEACH (at-large vs. at-large/top non-power five)

- Georgia vs. Marshall

OTHER BIG TEN

CITRUS (B1G/ACC vs. SEC)

- Clemson vs. Ole Miss

OUTBACK (B1G vs. SEC)

- Wisconsin vs. Auburn

HOLIDAY (B1G vs. P12)

- Nebraska vs. USC

TAXSLAYER GATOR (B1G/ACC vs. SEC)

- Iowa vs. Florida

MUSIC CITY (B1G/ACC vs. SEC)

- Louisville vs. Missouri

SAN FRANCISCO (B1G vs. P12)

- Minnesota vs. Stanford

PINSTRIPE (B1G vs. ACC)

- Penn State vs. Pittsburgh

QUICK LANE (B1G vs. ACC)

- Maryland vs. Virginia

DALLAS (B1G vs. CUSA)

- Rutgers vs. Rice

CACTUS (B12 vs. P12)

- Washington vs. Northwestern (Big 12 replacement)

OTHERS

TEXAS (SEC vs. B12)

- LSU vs. Baylor

BELK (SEC vs. ACC)

- South Carolina vs. Georgia Tech

LIBERTY (SEC vs. B12)

- Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State

BIRMINGHAM (SEC vs. American)

- Kentucky vs. East Carolina

INDEPENDENCE (SEC vs. ACC)

- Miami vs. Arkansas State (SEC replacement)

ALAMO (B12 vs. P12)

- Oklahoma vs. Arizona

RUSSELL (B12 vs. ACC)

- West Virginia vs. Duke

ARMED FORCES (Army/B12 vs. American)

- Houston vs. Air Force (replaces Army/Big 12)

SUN (P12 vs. ACC)

- Utah vs. Boston College

LAS VEGAS (P12 vs. MWC)

- UCLA vs. Colorado State

MILITARY (ACC vs. American)

- Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

BITCOIN (ACC vs. American)

- Central Florida vs. Central Michigan

MIAMI BEACH (BYU/at-large vs. American)

- BYU vs. Memphis

POINSETTIA (Navy/at-large vs. MWC)

- Navy vs. San Diego State

HAWAII (CUSA vs. MWC)

- Middle Tennessee State vs. California (replaces Mountain West)

POTATO (MAC vs. MWC)

- Boise State vs. Western Michigan

NEW MEXICO (CUSA vs. MWC)

- Utah State vs. UTEP

NEW ORLEANS (Sun Belt vs. MWC)

- Nevada vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

BAHAMAS (CUSA vs. MAC)

- Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois

GODADDY (MAC vs. Sun Belt)

- Bowling Green vs. Louisiana-Monroe

BOCA RATON (MAC vs. CUSA)

- Southern Miss vs. Toledo

CAMELLIA (MAC vs. Sun Belt)

- Akron vs. South Alabama

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com