5 pivotal games will determine Iowa’s fate

IOWA CITY — The Iowa Hawkeyes have hit the midpoint of the Big Ten women's basketball season, and their postseason tournament prospects are no more clear than they were a month ago.

With eight games to go, Iowa (13-8 overall, 4-4 Big Ten) stands in a seventh-place tie in the league, just one game out of fourth.

As originially projected, Maryland (21-1, 9-0) and Ohio State (19-5, 9-1) have sprinted away from the pack. The Terrapins and the Buckeyes are NCAA locks, and Michigan (17-5, 6-2) is likely to join them.

The next tier, consisting of six teams, can be classified as hopefuls. Iowa is in that tier, along with Northwestern (16-5, 5-3), Indiana (15-6, 5-3), Purdue (14-8, 5-3), Michigan State (14-7, 4-4) and Penn State (14-7, 4-4).

With an RPI of 51, Iowa hasn't done much to play itself into — or out of — the NCAA tournament. The Hawkeyes have one win against an RPI top-50 team, but that was a home win against fading Minnesota. On the other hand, they have only one 'bad' loss, at Illinois.

Ranked as the sixth-best conference in terms of RPI, the Big Ten isn't a juggernaut this year and is unlikely to get more than five teams into The Dance. Thus, an 8-8 record isn't going to cut it for the Hawkeyes.

Eight regular-season games remain, and here's the schedule:

Thursday — Rutgers (home)

Sunday — at Michigan

Feb. 9 — Michigan State (home)

Feb. 12 — at Ohio State

Feb. 16 — Northwestern (home)

Feb. 19 — at Purdue

Feb. 22 — at Indiana

Feb. 26 — Wisconsin (home)

A win against Ohio State would be a huge boost, but it's unlikely. A home loss to either Rutgers or Wisconsin, also unlikely, would range somewhere from damaging to catastrophic.

So let's assume form holds with those three, leaving five coin-flip games, three on the road. If Iowa wins three of those, it gets to 9-7 in the Big Ten and 18-11 overall heading to the Big Ten tournament. Win one and lose one there, and it goes into Selection Monday at 19-12 and an RPI probably in the 40s. That might be enough.

Win four of those five pivotal games, and the Hawkeyes are sitting pretty. Lose three or more, and without a deep Big Ten tournament run, hopes for an NCAA berth are probably toast.

The opportunity is there for a late-season run. But it absolutely, positively has to start Thursday.

l Comments: (319) 368-8857; jeff.linder@thegazette.com