Iowa-Arkansas State game analysis

When the Hawkeyes have the ball

The Red Wolves are led by senior defensive end Alex Carrington, a 6-foot-5, 284-pounder who, according to Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz, runs a 4.7-second 40-yard dash. This is the type of player who ends up in the fifth round of the NFL draft and you're happy your team picked him. Last year, he had 10.5 sacks, was first-team all-Sun Belt Conference and earned the conference's defensive player of the year. He's the preseason pick for the same honor this season.

Carrington is one of three returning D-linemen. He's just by last season's tackle tandem of senior Khari Mays (6-2, 288) and junior Bryan Hall (6-1 284), a preseason all-conference pick. There isn't as much experience among the linebackers, but this might be the most athletic group. Demario Davis, Greg Hardy and Javon McKinnon are speedy and defensive coordinator Kevin Corless isn't afraid to blitz them at any time. The Wolves have six sacks so far this season. The secondary is veteran, led by junior free safety M.D. Jennings (6-0, 172), who had 65 tackles and led ASU with three interceptions last season.

Arkansas State returns eight starters from the second-best defense in the Sun Belt.

“They're veteran upfront and they're not afraid to bring some guys from different areas,” Ferentz said. “You really have to be alert. They keep you on your toes. They play hard. They just keep coming at you. Their guys really play with good energy out there.”

Iowa's offense might be full strength this week. Tackle Bryan Bulaga should be back in the lineup after a thyroid condition knocked him out of the lineup for three games. Also, tight end Tony Moeaki might return from an ankle injury that has held him out the last two weeks.

Iowa's offense wasn't pretty at Penn State. The rainy conditions and Penn State, of course, had a lot to do with that. But, set up by turnovers, the Hawkeyes found a vein of consistency in the fourth quarter.

In the end, Iowa's offense won at No. 5 Penn State with a red-shirt freshman (Riley Reiff) at left tackle and two freshmen running backs combining for 161 yards. Maybe the most important take-away is that the O-line held up, or more than held up, against what might be the best front seven it will face this season.

Going into week 5, quarterback Ricky Stanzi hasn't put together a full game, but five drops and the rain didn't exactly help him last week, when he had a dismal 70.53 efficiency against Penn State. Look beyond Stanzi, though. Iowa's passing game, from QB to receivers to pass blocking to hot reads, hasn't been sync'd this season.

The big-ticket item today is Bulaga. How much will he, can he, play? And if he does play, what happens to Reiff? Does he move inside? In Bulaga's absence, Iowa grew tried-and-true depth and found a future tackle in Reiff. Also, against Penn State, coaches showed some creativity, putting OL Andy Kuempel in as a tight end in two-tight end formations. Coaches wanted more punch at the point of attack, and in his dozen snaps, the 6-7, 300-pound senior delivered.

The passing game needs a clean performance. Just a little something to build on before another massive prime time ABC showdown against a Big Ten blue blood in Michigan next week (7:12 p.m. at Kinnick Stadium).

Advantage: Iowa

When the Red Wolves have the ball

On offense, ASU is led by a preseason all-conference candidates quarterback Corey Leonard and running back Reggie Arnold. Leonard already has the school's all-time mark for total yardage with 7,433 yards. Arnold is inching toward the school's career rushing record.

The Wolves operate out of a shotgun spread attack. Last season, it was the No. 2 rushing offense and No. 3 total offense in the Sun Belt. The O-line had a lot to do with that, but three have graduated, so the Wolves are a little new upfront. This doesn't bode well, with Iowa's D-line starting to move toward what could be peak performance.

Leonard led the Wolves to a 3-3 record in the Sun Belt last season. He threw for 16 touchdowns and rushed for more than 500 yards. He's is a dual-threat that led an offense that ranked 38th in the nation. Ferentz said ASU is a Northwestern spread and Leonard is a Brett Basanez-type QB, with Arnold complimenting him as a Tyrell Sutton-type running back.

“Yeah, he's (Leonard) not afraid at all,” Ferentz said. “He's very confident in what they're doing and he knows how to run that offense.”

So far this season, Leonard has completed 54.4 percent of his passes (31 of 57) with two TDs and no interceptions. During the Sun Belt teleconference Monday, head coach Steve Roberts said he hasn't performed up to standard yet this season. Arnold, who has 3,336 career rushing yards, averages 6.3 yards a carry this season with an impressive seven TDs on just 38 carries.

Jahbari McLennan leads ASU with nine receptions, but Brandon Thompkins has shown some explosion with 24.5 yards a catch.

Iowa's defense hasn't allowed a rushing TD in 29 quarters, dating back to the 2008 season. That's an impressive stat, yes, but the most helpful for the 2009 Hawkeyes clearly has been take-aways/turnover margin.

Iowa is tied with Wisconsin for the Big Ten lead in turnover margin with a plus-5, that's No. 13 in the country. Iowa's nine interceptions are tied for second in the nation with Boise State. SMU leads with 11.

The turnovers are installing scaffolding under an offense that has been shaky during stretches this season. Last week, a blocked punt, three interceptions and a fumble helped Iowa's offense put 16 points on the board in the second half.

After Iowa State, Iowa's D-line had a “discussion” with position coach Rick Kaczenski. Since, the unit has been dominant. The coup de grace was last week's pillaging of Penn State, racking up a pair of sacks, a safety, tons of pressure and DE Adrian Clayborn's blocked punt and 53-yard return for a TD.

This unit is playing with confidence, killer instinct and speed. It's Iowa's best foot forward and, four games in, looks as if it could take the Hawkeyes a long way.

Advantage: Iowa

Special teams

The Wolves lost two fumbles on punt returns in last week's tough loss to league-rival Troy. Kicker Josh Arauco is perfect this season, 3-for-3 with a long of 42 yards. Punter Ryan Wilbourn averages just 35.8 yards a kick and has downed just one punt inside the opponent's 20.

Sometime in his career, Iowa kicker Daniel Murray is going to be asked to win a game from outside of 40 yards. That's just how the Hawkeyes are built. In his career, Murray is just 7 of 11 from 40-49 yards, including 2 of 4 last week. It hasn't been an issue, but it might be the reason why sophomore Trent Mossbrucker dresses every week, which is the plan. If Iowa doesn't use Mossbrucker, obviously, the red shirt is available. But Ferentz said this week that the idea is to win for today, suggesting the competition is still there, if only in practice.

Iowa's kick return team has allowed some meaty returns in the last two weeks, including a 36-yarder in the fourth quarter against Penn State. Still, if you look at the overall number, the Hawkeyes are a decent 35th in the country, allowing 19.58 a return.

Advantage: Iowa

The Scoreboard

Arkansas State has some veteran talent on offense. QB Leonard knows Roberts' offense through and through and runs it very, very well. RB Arnold is a record-setting back at ASU. These are two pretty great cornerstones, even in the face of last week's bitter setback to Sun Belt rival Troy. They should terrorize the Sun Belt this season. The Wolves' defense is aggressive and athletic. They're veteran upfront and it should do some damage in the Sun Belt. This team should do a lot of damage in the Sun Belt. Today is not the Sun Belt.

Iowa 38, Arkansas State 13

- Marc Morehouse