2-Minute Drill: Purdue Boilermakers

IOWA RUSH OFFENSE VS. PURDUE RUSH DEFENSE

The Boilermakers' run defense is the worst in the Big Ten. It's allowed 632 yards the last two weeks (Illinois and Northwestern). It's allowed 209.6 yards a game and 5.12 yards per carry. Those numbers are the worst in the conference with the per-game average 39 yards worse than No. 13 Indiana (170.7 rushing yards allowed per game).

Purdue, ranked No. 112 in the nation in rush defense, has allowed explosion (24 run plays of 20-plus yards is worst in the league) and efficiency (5.79 yards on 224 first-down rushes). That's just not a great place to start for a defense. In fact, it's the worst place to start.

The Boilers returned all three starters at linebacker, but sophomore middle linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley (ACL) was lost for the season Oct. 10. Purdue's D-line has combined for 23 tackles for loss, with junior tackle Jake Replogle (6-5, 275) leading the way. Ends Evan Panfil (6-5, 262) and Gelen Robinson (6-1, 250) have combined for 12.5 tackles for loss. Nose guard Ra'Zahn Howard (6-3, 310) was a force against Northwestern last week.

Snow and cold is in the forecast for Iowa City this weekend. Who knows what will hit and when, but the Hawkeyes come with their own snow tires. Iowa's rush offense still is tracking toward the program's best number since 2002, with 211.7 yards a game (that's No. 2 in the Big Ten and 28th in the nation).

Iowa's O-line withstood a wave of injuries at the tackle position, which started 2015 with two new starters. Sophomore Boone Myers is back from a neck/shoulder stinger. Junior Cole Croston has established himself. Sophomore Ike Boettger has been medically cleared on an ankle injury and could play for the first time since Oct. 10.

Running back Akrum Wadley (426 yards, seven TDs) sat out with an ankle injury last week. He should be able to return, but look for junior LeShun Daniels (career-high 195 yards and three TDs in last week's win over Minnesota) and senior Jordan Canzeri (Iowa's leading rusher with 729 yards) to see the majority of carries.

Advantage: Iowa

IOWA PASS OFFENSE VS. PURDUE PASS DEFENSE

Last week against Northwestern, the Boilers ran a 4-3 base with some shifting into a three-man front. Cornerbacks Frankie Williams and Anthony Brown are a solid Big Ten CB duo. Although Williams is a little undersized (5-9, 190), he can hit and tackle. Brown (5-11, 190) is a physical player who will play aggressively. They've combined for seven interceptions and 10 pass breakups. Strong safety Leroy Clark leads Purdue with 69 tackles and has eight pass breakups.

Purdue has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62 percent of their passes this season, second-worst in the Big Ten. On 88 third-down attempts, the Boilers have allowed a 61.4 percent completion rate (114th in the nation and 14th in the Big Ten). That keeps a defense on the field. Purdue's 19 sacks are 11th in the league (Panfil and sophomore DE Antoine Miles, 6-3, 236, lead with 4.0 apiece) and the Boilers are 11th with 55 passes of 20-plus yards allowed.

The forecast is for wintry conditions with winds and maybe as much as six inches of snow. Plus, Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard is coming off a hip pointer that, on Tuesday, he called maybe his most painful injury of the season (man, isn't that saying something with the season he's had).

How much will the weather dictate what Iowa's able to do through the air? Against one of the nation's softest run defenses, how much will Iowa be forced to throw it? Where is Beathard on the pain chart?

There were some faint drums on the beat for Beathard and postseason conference honors. The counter argument is that the numbers (eighth in the league with 204.4 yards and tied for ninth with 10 TD passes) just aren't there. And maybe that's true. Still, Beathard fits in with what Iowa is doing. His 7.7 yards per attempt (the number that tells you whether or not it's worth it for your team to throw the ball) is on track to be the highest for an Iowa QB since Ricky Stanzi logged a pretty incredible 8.7 in 2010.

An Iowa offense that gets much above 30 pass attempts per game isn't as effective as an offense that's closer to 28 or 27. Iowa is 13th in the B1G with 27.3 pass attempts per game. In recent 'up” years (years with eight or more wins), Iowa has averaged 28.8 (2013), 27.5 (2010), 30.2 (2009) and 25.6 (2008). The ‘09 season is the anomaly, but the championship ratio for Iowa is somewhere close to 40 rushes a game and 27 passes.

Advantage: Iowa

IOWA RUSH DEFENSE VS. PURDUE RUSH OFFENSE

Just like Minnesota and Indiana the week before, the Boilers have a spread element in their prostyle design. Purdue has up-tempo, no-huddle capabilities. It also likes to use multiple wide receiver formations and will attack sideline to sideline. The Boilers will use their quarterback in the run game.

Iowa struggled last week against Minnesota's misdirection plays. Purdue's offense also features play-action off inside zone read runs and an athletic quarterback in David Blough, who can throw the ball or run off inside zone action. Up front, all five starting offensive linemen are back from last season, but it's been inconsistent. Left tackle David Hedelin (concussion) was held out of practice Wednesday. If he can't play, RT Cameron Cermin (6-5, 301) will move to left tackle and red-shirt freshman Martesse Patterson (6-3, 345) will take over at right tackle.

The Boilermakers will run varieties of the inside zone read from a variety of formations and motions. Purdue coach Darrell Hazell has seemed to trim back some of the playbook for Blough, allowing the 6-1, 202-pound red-shirt freshman to simply make more plays.

Freshman running back Markell Jones (5-11, 207) is a back who thrives on the inside zone. He gets downhill quickly, loves to run through contact and will run over secondary defenders if they don't come in low. Before leaving last week's game with a knee injury, Jones (692 yards, 5.4 yards a carry and eight TDs) did exactly that against Northwestern. Hazell declared Jones healthy and ready to go this week.

Iowa's defense just saw a lot of this offense last weekend. Just as Minnesota did, Purdue's offense builds off the inside zone series with a variety of fakes, motions, and screens.

The Hawkeyes have plenty of tightening to do against this kind of attack. Last week, the flat was targeted and the Hawkeyes had a difficult time sorting out receivers and receivers who were blockers.

The Gophers, however, are a more established program with better personnel. Purdue is last in the Big Ten and 114th nationally with 128.9 rushing yards per game (the Boilers have generated just 29 10-plus runs and average just 3.18 yards on first down runs).

Advantage: Iowa

IOWA PASS DEFENSE VS. PURDUE PASS OFFENSE

Part of Purdue's overall problem is its quarterbacks have had life spans similar to those of drummers from the movie 'Spinal Tap.” (One of those guys spontaneously combusted, by the way.) It's not that weird in West Lafayette, but Blough will be the third different Boilermakers QB the Hawkeyes have faced in the last four seasons (Robert Marve in 2012, Danny Ettling in ‘13 and ‘14 before he lost the job to Austin Appleby, who then lasted just three starts before yielding to Blough in week 3).

Go ahead, you want to say out loud a sort of smarty-pants 'Is that bad?” Why yes, it is bad. You saw firsthand last season what the seed of doubt at quarterback can do to a team. (And, really, the Hawkeyes knew all along that Jake Rudock was the starter and Beathard was the backup, but the outside world kept clawing and, you bet, it was a distraction.)

Blough is sort of a Dan Persa-type of QB (oh, yes, there's a reference that will get you going, the old Northwestern QB had the Hawkeyes' number). Blough was gigantic in a 55-45 victory over Nebraska (28 completions, four TD passes and no interceptions). He kept the Boilers in it at Northwestern last week with 26 completions, 287 yards and a 65-yard TD pass to WR Domonique Young (6-3, 205) on the Boilers first offensive play of the game.

Wide receiver DeAngelo Yancey is Purdue's top target with 32 catches for 522 yards and five TDs. Senior Danny Anthrop (46 catches, 317 yards) catches a lot of short, check-down passes.

Iowa's pass coverage kind of crumbled against the Gophers. The 301 yards was the second-most allowed this season. The 185.3 pass efficiency was the highest against the Hawkeyes this season and best since Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner put up a 248.5 against Iowa in last season's 51-14 collapse in Minneapolis.

Iowa didn't put a lot of pressure on Leidner, with just one sack manufactured off a blitz. Iowa's linebackers had a hard time ID-ing receivers with a lot of routes thrown into their path to their assigned receiver. Basically, Minnesota ran a lot of rubs and picks that kept Iowa off balance. Look for a bit of a bounce-back week, but also remember the weather could be the Hawkeyes No. 12 defender vs. the pass.

Advantage: Iowa

SPECIAL TEAMS

Even the Boilermakers' special teams are struggling.

Senior kicker Paul Griggs, who made 16 of 20 field-goal attempts last season, has made only 3 of 9. He missed from 19 yards in a loss to Bowling Green and is 1 of 5 from 30 yards or longer. He hasn't converted a field goal since a loss to Virginia Tech on Sept. 19 (a 34-yarder). Griggs also is ninth in the league with just 15 touchbacks this season.

Purdue is 14th in the league on kickoff returns (17.6-yard average) and 11th on punt returns (8.1). The coverage units need work, too. Purdue is allowing an average of 9.0 yards on punt returns (seventh in the league) and 23.7 on kickoff returns (11th).

Iowa corner Desmond King hit a 58-yard kick return against Minnesota that turned out to be important. It set up the Hawkeyes at the Gophers' 37 and it turned into a short TD drive. Iowa stayed two scores ahead of Minnesota in the second half. A play made on special teams gave the Hawkeyes room to breathe.

One kind of lost stat with Iowa kicker Marshall Koehn is touchbacks. He pounded out seven last week and now has 36 this season, second in the Big Ten. He also made two of three field goals (47, 38).

Advantage: Iowa

INTANGIBLES

1. The vote of confidence bump

- On Nov. 12, news started to circulate that Purdue coach Darrell Hazell would return for the 2016 season despite a 6-29 record. Hazell has three years remaining on his contract after this season. After Purdue athletics director Morgan Burke issued a vote of confidence, the Boilers played an inspired game at Northwestern, falling just 21-14.

'It helps in so many facets,” Hazell said. 'Obviously in the recruiting front, the players in our locker room to our coaching staff, all those things that allow to you set your feet and continue to work extremely hard.

'You need to have that confidence from the powers that be behind you, so it was a huge boost for our program.”

Can Purdue maybe get another bump from that this week? It's not a preferred motivational tool, but it's something the program can get its arms around.

2. Trophy talk

- File a divisional title wherever you want, but here's a vote for it being pretty important. This is the fifth season of divisional trophies in the Big Ten. Only five schools have won them - Ohio State (three), Michigan State (two), Wisconsin (two), Penn State (one) and Nebraska (one).

So, this is a pretty good club to be in. Michigan isn't in it. With a victory Saturday, Iowa pulls into a neighborhood where Michigan State and Wisconsin - two comparable programs for Iowa - have already dropped roots. A spot in the Big Ten title game (Dec. 5) is a big deal. It's a platform for a three-hour Iowa commercial on national TV (Fox). Now, the trick is to show you belong.

3. CFP talk

- It's just talk right now. It's good talk for Iowa, which held its ground at No. 5 this week. Your favorite football program is being examined and given thumbs up or down. The point is that it's in the conversation. Last November, Iowa wasn't ranked. Iowa hadn't been ranked in more than five seasons before busting in at No. 23 in the coaches poll in week 6.

It's good to be ranked. It's good to be talked about. It's really good to have a say in your destiny, which Iowa does as long as it keeps winning.

Look at it this way: You know how the popular kids get TP'd on or around Halloween? Sure, it stinks cleaning it up, but hey, your kid is popular and has friends who think enough of him or her to fill your trees with toilet paper.

Iowa is getting TP'd every week. Just smile and enjoy the cleanup.

IOWA WILL WIN IF

... The Hawkeyes need to be more efficient than explosive Saturday. The weather might have a thing or two to say about what the offenses can do, so the grind might be the thing. Iowa can play this game. The numbers suggest that the Boilermakers can't. If Iowa can maintain a positive success rate (50 percent of needed yards on first down, 70 percent of needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of needed yards on third or fourth down), it will have a trophy in the locker room at the end of the day.

PURDUE WILL WIN IF

... The Boilermakers have to take their punches and land a lot of them. It needs the number of explosive plays and turnovers to come down on their side. Every turnover on average is a five-point swing. A couple in favor of Purdue could shift the pressure to Iowa, which, hey, let's face it, has much more to lose in this game than Purdue. This has season-making potential for the Boilers.

PREDICTION

: Iowa 42, Purdue 14

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com