2-Minute Drill: Minnesota Golden Gophers at Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkeyes and the Gophers are 4-3. Getting to a bowl game is a big thing for both. Let's call this the Pinstripe Bowl Pre-Bowl.

After the Hawkeyes, Minnesota travels to Michigan, hosts Nebraska, visits Northwestern and closes with Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes play host to No. 6 Ohio State, travel to No. 5 Wisconsin, play host to Purdue and then finish at Nebraska.

This might be bowl elimination for the Gophers. Is second place in the Big Ten West out of Iowa's reach? On second thought, don't answer that. No one remembers second place in the B1G West. OK, the bowl people do and that's what's really going on here.

Iowa is playing for the best possible bowl. That's the view from the outside. Inside? The Hawkeyes are playing for a performance that feels right. They last experienced that against Penn State and that was a loss, so it's not something everyone is going to gather around the fire and reminisce over.

Good game, but a loss. That sentiment isn't doing it for anyone right now.

The game kicks off at 5:35 p.m. at Kinnick Stadium and will be televised on FS1.

Minnesota rush defense vs. Iowa rush offense

Iowa probably can't spend a lot of time probing for something here.

Yes, Minnesota (head coach P.J. Fleck is committed to a 4-3 alignment) started the season gorging on cupcakes and the defensive numbers have plunged since conference play has started. The Gophers still have some punch inside. Defensive tackle Steven Richardson (6-0, 292) is among the B1G's best. Iowa center James Daniels called Richardson his toughest assignment last season.

The Gophers' numbers — 190.0 yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry in four conference games — are too mediocre for Iowa not to test UM. But Iowa's rush numbers in B1G games are historically bad (95.2 per game, 3.2 per carry).

Minnesota isn't Michigan State, Penn State and maybe not even Northwestern. With two senior three-year starting offensive tackles basically out for the season, Iowa's rush offense isn't Iowa's traditional rush offense.

Banking on Minnesota not being Northwestern here would be a questionable game plan considering how far Iowa's rush attack has fallen.

What will Iowa do? Here's a hint: Asked if a game plan could be shaped around the strengths of freshman offensive tackles Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said, 'I mean, there are things you can do, certainly, for any position to help out a little bit. But we're going to try to play the way we play, and the challenge is for those guys to be able to do it.'

Advantage: Push

Minnesota pass defense vs. Iowa pass offense

If you're confident in your passing game, this is where you go after Minnesota. The Gophers are missing cornerback Antoine Winfield, who's out with a hamstring injury. Minnesota has dealt with a ton of injuries in the secondary. It's played 11 defensive backs this season with seven being underclassmen (four freshman and three sophomores).

That said, another area where young defensive backs show up is run support. One of the big complaints for the Gophers coming out of their loss to Michigan State, in which they allowed 245 rushing yards, was their inability to set an edge. MSU attacked the perimeter and it worked. In the postgame, head coach P.J. Fleck said he would've done the same thing to his team.

With the running game pinned, is quarterback Nate Stanley Iowa's best offensive weapon right now? Stanley's numbers have held up in four B1G games. He's sitting around fifth in most stats except completion percentage, which, at 55.1 percent, needs to be higher.

In conference games, Minnesota has allowed QBs to complete 66.1 percent of their passes. Here's another number that favors the pass for Iowa Saturday: Despite a running game chunking along at 3.2 yards per carry, the Hawkeyes are still fifth in conference games with 5.24 yards per play.

Advantage: Iowa

Minnesota rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense

As the Big Ten team that lives closest to the 48th parallel (think cold weather), Fleck is totally devoted to running the ball. The Gophers are good here. Running backs Rodney Smith (5-11, 210) and Shannon Brooks (6-0, 213) are the real deal. Smith rushed for 1,158 yards last season. Brooks missed five games with an injury, but still managed 650 yards and seven TDs.

Last season, Minnesota was 9-1 when Smith scored; 6-1 when Brooks scored. In four conference games (Maryland, Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois), the Gophers rank third in the league in rushing (168.2 yards per game; 4.2 yards per carry). The right side of UM's O-line is freshman guard Conner Olson (6-5, 297) and freshman tackle Sam Schlueter (6-6, 298). Injuries have forced young players into action. Does that sound familiar, Iowa-landia?

Iowa's defensive line was the consistent bright spot last week against Northwestern. Iowa held NU to 147 rushing yards on 46 carries (3.2 yards per). Iowa's three sacks and four tackles for loss came from D-linemen. Nine defensive linemen saw action. At around 60 percent of the snaps, Iowa seems to have found the snaps sweet spot for senior DT Nathan Bazata. He was Iowa's most disruptive player last week with 1.5 sacks.

Oh, linebacker Josey Jewell should be back from the shoulder injury that kept him out last week. Minnesota has rushed for more than 200 yards in four games. This matchup probably decides the game.

Advantage: Iowa

Minnesota pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense

Minnesota isn't a passing football team. Going into last week's victory over Illinois, Fleck named sophomore Demry Croft (6-5, 205) the starter. Croft is a dual-threat QB who's averaged 6.7 yards on 25 carries. He ran the ball 11 times for 32 yards against the Fighting Illini. The Gophers won 24-17 despite completing just five passes.

Sophomore wide receiver Tyler Johnson is the Gophers' top threat in the passing game. The 6-2, 190-pounder is third in the B1G with 71.3 receiving yards a game. He has 27 receptions for 499 yards and seven TDs. Johnson has had three 100-yard receiving games this season. (For what it's worth, Iowa has yet to have a receiver record a 100-yard effort this season.)

Does Croft and his strengths make the Gophers too one dimensional? In two of the Gophers' last three games, they've passed for 101 and 47 yards.

Sophomore cornerback Manny Rugamba returned from an ankle injury last week and looked more like the promising true freshman who did good things in 2016 before suffering a broken collarbone against Nebraska. This makes Iowa stronger in the secondary. Rugamba can do this, and sophomore Michael Ojemudia can move into a nickel back role.

With three pass breakups last week, junior corner Josh Jackson now leads the Big Ten with 13. He came painfully close to three interceptions last week.

Advantage: Iowa

Special teams

UM kicker Emmit Carpenter made 22-of-24 field goals last season en route to being named the Big Ten's Kicker of the Year. He started 2017 missing his first two attempts, but then made his next six. Carpenter has made 10-of-14 field goals this year and statistically is the most accurate field goal kicker in school history (32-of-38 tries, 84.2 percent).

Minnesota putner Ryan Santoso has punted 110 times in his career and averages 42.0 yards, which ranks fourth in school history. Santoso has placed 39 punts inside the 20. His career long of 68 yards came against Michigan State this year. He is first in the Big Ten (14th in NCAA) with a 45.0 average on 32 punts.

The Gophers are 12th in the B1G in kick coverage (22.9 yards per) and seventh in punt coverage (6.6). Iowa is sixth in punt cover (6.4) and second in kick cover (16.1 yards per). Freshman running back Ivory Kelly-Martin is fifth with 23.4 yards per kick return (10).

Junior kicker Miguel Recinos has clinched the most-improved Hawkeye award. He's gone from second string to nailing that 48-yard field goal with 1:30 left in the game to send last week into overtime.

Hlas: Hawkeyes and Mason City get a kick out of Miguel Recinos

Advantage: Iowa

Intangibles

1. Young 'uns — Remember how Illinois was the youngest team in the nation? Minnesota is in that race. Forty-nine of UM's 110 players are freshmen or redshirt freshmen. This scrambles things, particularly for the Gophers' O-line.

2. No. 5 in the 'need to know' — This is the No. 5 item in the UM game notes: Minnesota has played 66 players this season. It's had 21 of those players miss at least one game because of injury or suspension. So, really, no excuses for the Hawkeyes in a night home game against a team that's battled youthful mistakes and injuries (UM practiced with just four OL at times last spring) all season.

3. Night game and maybe alt-uniforms — The night game is for sure. And, for the record, a 5:30 p.m. kick does count as a night game. Iowa is 10-5 in night games at Kinnick and has won eight of its last 10 (both losses coming to Penn State). Will there be alternative uniforms? Ferentz played it coy this week. Running back Akrum Wadley showed off black cleats on Instagram. It sounds like this happens for next week's game against Ohio State, but that'll be an 11 a.m. or 2:30 p.m. kick. New uniforms are so much cooler at night, though, right?

Minnesota-Iowa prediction

Minnesota will win if ... it can shake out a handful of explosive plays. Iowa allowed three in the second half to Northwestern last week. All three led to scores.

Iowa will win if ... it crosses the goal line twice in the first quarter. In perhaps the most incongruous stat in the country, the Hawkeyes are 25th in the nation controlling time of possession in the first quarter 55.24 percent of the time. They have almost nothing to show for that. Iowa is 121st in the nation in first-quarter points with 21, just 3.0 points a game in the first quarter.

Prediction: Iowa 30, Minnesota 17

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com