2-Minute Drill: Iowa vs. Florida in the Outback Bowl

The tricky part is trying to figure out who wants to be here.

The Florida Gators (8-4) have lost their last two games, one against rival Florida State and the other in the SEC championship game against No. 1 Alabama. They probably want to wash that 54-16 loss out of their uniforms.

The Gators have a pile of draft-eligible players. They're all saying the right things.

'It's definitely important,' cornerback Quincy Wilson told the Gainesville (Fla.) Sun. 'Every game is important to put on good film. I always want to be proud of what I put on film and that's what coach says. I'm just going out there ready to play my 'A' game.'

Florida head coach Jim McElwain is finishing his second season in Gainesville. His first season ended with a three-game losing streak that included a 41-7 defeat to Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. Florida has NFL talent that soon will be getting paid to play. But its coach has to live in Gainesville, where fans get restless with season-ending three-game losing streaks and bowl defeats.

You know that Iowa ended the season on a roll, maybe its best stretch of football since the middle of 2015. The Hawkeyes pushed Michigan's season to the brink with an upset at Kinnick. They stomped then-ranked Nebraska.

The month of November began with an ugly beating at Penn State, 41-14 and 599 yards of offense.

The Hawkeyes seem genuinely comfortable in their skin. The offense has found an identity in the running game. The defense got its feet back on the ground after one of the worst efforts in head coach Kirk Ferentz's 18 years.

Iowa and Ferentz kind of need to end a four-game bowl losing streak. A big November finish doesn't mean the Hawkeyes are immune to a Penn State result.

This is a weird game. We really won't know who wants to be here maybe until the end of the first quarter.

FLORIDA RUSH DEFENSE VS. IOWA RUSH OFFENSE

The Gators will battle the Hawkeyes without three starting linebackers. Middle linebacker Jarrad Davis is a likely first-round NFL draft pick. CBS Sports had the 6-2, 238-pounder going No. 30 to the Oakland Raiders. He piled up 60 tackles, 6.0 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks, but he missed the final three games of the season with an ankle injury and Florida head coach Jim McElwain announced Friday that Davis is out with an ankle injury.

In front of him are defensive tackle Caleb Brantley (6-2, 297) and Joey Ivie (6-3, 301). Brantley is a potential first-rounder with 8.0 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks. Pro Football Focus grades Brantley as the Gators' best overall defender and Ivie at No. 2.

Several Gators have been slowed by injuries in the final month of the season. Linebacker Alex Anzalone (broken arm) did return to practice this week, but will miss the game. Without Davis and Anzalone, Florida will be missing its Nos. 2 and 3 tacklers.

Iowa's running game set the pace for its November run. But, again, the Hawkeyes were totally boxed in at Penn State, rushing 26 times for 30 yards (worst since 23 against Michigan State in 2013). A week later against Michigan, Iowa hit for 164, with junior Akrum Wadley going for 115 yards.

So, which Iowa rush attack shows up?

You hate to put so much weight on one game, but consider this: Depending how much senior tackle Cole Croston plays, Iowa could have five returning starters from this game back on the O-line next fall. They don't want to leave a dud on video for O-line coach Brian Ferentz to dissect all winter.

More: After fighting leg injury, Croston ready to roll

Iowa won't hit last year's 2,500 yards and 35 TDs, but Iowa's rush offense could produce two 1,000-yard rushers for the first time in school history. Senior LeShun Daniels is at 1,013. Wadley is close at 966.

Advantage: Push

FLORIDA PASS DEFENSE VS. IOWA PASS OFFENSE

Is the most-NFL player in this game Iowa's Desmond King or Florida cornerback Teez Tabor?

Tabor (6-0, 2-1) led the Gators with four interceptions. CBS Sports has Tabor going No. 11 to the Arizona Cardinals in a mock draft. Tabor also broke up five passes. The Gators could lose both of their corners to the draft. Junior Quincy Wilson has similar NFL mentions along with three interceptions and six pass breakups.

Florida has held opposing quarterbacks to a 46.4 completion percentage. That's second in the nation. Nine Gators have double-digit numbers in quarterback hurries, with all three linebackers in that mix. Defensive end Jabari Zuniga (6-3, 245) leads Florida with 5.0 sacks.

Beginning at the end of November, everyone Iowa has been saying how much of the struggles in the passing game haven't been quarterback C.J. Beathard's fault. Head coach Kirk Ferentz and offensive coordinator Greg Davis have said the receiving personnel went into a tailspin after wide receiver Matt VandeBerg was lost for the season with a broken foot in week 4.

So, it's not all on Beathard. The bigger question is whether or not any of Iowa's young receivers made strides toward contributing during bowl preparation. Sophomore Jerminic Smith is probably the closest. He's good for a play or two a game. More than that would definitely help.

More: Hawkeyes' offense eventually made its point

Against Michigan, Iowa was able to get Wadley in space against linebackers. Florida certainly has seen that and might have to account for Wadley out of the backfield.

Tight end George Kittle is as healthy as he's been since midseason. Iowa really missed his ability to find matchups and exploit linebackers with his speed. He could be in line for a half dozen targets.

Advantage: Florida

FLORIDA RUSH OFFENSE VS. IOWA RUSH DEFENSE

Florida wasn't great at running the ball this season, finishing last in the SEC and No. 113 nationally with 129.8 yards a game. The Gators have had some moving parts in the offensive line, with left tackle David Sharpe (6-6, 357), guard Martez Ivey and right tackle Jawaan Taylor keeping the unit together. Ivey missed the Florida State game with a leg injury and is listed on Florida's depth chart as an 'or,' so he also could be a moving part.

Of the eight Gators O-linemen with 100-plus snaps this season, Pro Football Focus has just two with positive grades (center T.J. McCoy is the only one of the two who's listed on the Outback depth chart).

More: Iowa takes on a house of an offensive tackle

Florida has played as many as four running backs this season, but sophomore Jordan Scarlett (5-10, 213), PFF's highest-rated Florida offensive player, has taken steps ahead of the pack. He led the Gators with 795 yards and six TDs.

The Gators rushed for just 11 TDs this season, that's tied for No. 120 in the country.

Even with the 359 rushing yards Penn State put on the Hawkeyes, Iowa has allowed 152.0 rushing yards in four November games. That's No. 42 in the nation for the month. It's not a championship number, but the rush defense is a huge reason for the feel-good finish.

The Hawkeyes held Michigan to 98 yards, the Wolverines' second lowest output this season (91 vs. Ohio State). Iowa held Nebraska to 90 yards, its second lowest this season (78 vs. Ohio State).

Yes, Iowa will be stung with the departure of Beathard. It's never fun finding a QB. But ask yourself this: Is there another Jaleel Johnson on the 2017 roster? The senior defensive tackle had a monster November. He won Big Ten defensive player of the week after his performance against Michigan (nine tackles, a sack and a safety).

Iowa will lose Johnson and finding his replacement is going to be a journey, but the Hawkeyes will get middle linebacker Josey Jewell back. The junior said he did check his NFL draft status and said he plans to return to Iowa City next fall. Jewell has been the No. 2 tackler in the Big Ten the last two seasons.

If Iowa doesn't dominate this element, it could be in trouble.

Advantage: Iowa

FLORIDA PASS OFFENSE VS. IOWA PASS DEFENSE

This is another case of 'why can't that happen again.' This time, it would be bad for Iowa if Florida quarterback Austin Appleby finds the little bit of magic he found at Kinnick Stadium last fall.

In a nothing game for Purdue and a Big Ten West Division championship clincher for the Hawkeyes, Appleby did enough to keep the game semi-interesting going into the fourth quarter. He completed 23 of 40 for 259 yards and a TD. It snowed about a half foot the night before, but Appleby did enough to make the Hawkeyes sweat in winning the West.

Why can't that happen again? Florida has a pair of productive wideouts in Antonio Callaway (47 receptions for 666 yards and three TDs) and Brandon Powell (43 for 372 yards). Tight ends C'yontai Lewis and DeAndre Goolsby have combined for 54 receptions.

The Gators have some pieces to work with. Appleby came to Florida for a chance like this. He definitely wants to be here at the Outback Bowl.

Calloway talked this week about getting a shot at Iowa cornerback Desmond King. It wasn't trash talk, it was a genuine desire to measure himself against one of the best. (You could argue that happens for Calloway every day in practice.)

It might not come to that. Yes, teams generally have avoided going at King. But now Iowa is down to its fourth corner on the opposite side of King.

Sophomore Joshua Jackson will probably get the start. He'll be in place of true freshman Manny Rugamba, who suffered a shoulder/collarbone injury in the season finale against Nebraska and is out for the bowl game. Rugamba was starting in place of senior Greg Mabin, who started 35 games before suffering a season-ending broken ankle.

More: Hawkeyes down to the nub at cornerback

Iowa's secondary has been reshaped since November started. The Mabin and Rugamba injuries have put Jackson in the spotlight. He started the season as the No. 3 corner, but was beaten out for that role by Rugamba in camp. Also, strong safety Miles Taylor went through concussion protocol against Michigan and has since lost his job to senior Anthony Gair, whose performance has been an upgrade.

Can Iowa get pressure on Appleby? Sharpe is 6-6, 357 pounds, so probably take that right end off the list. Johnson has brought inside pressure consistently this season (7.5 sacks is sixth in the Big Ten). With just three corners, Iowa will be limited in what it can do to bring pressure, so the front four will be counted on to disrupt.

Advantage: Push

SPECIAL TEAMS

Florida punter Johnny Townsend leads the nation with 48.1 yards per punt. He's clearly a strength, but he has been prone to outkick his coverage. Yes, this is a real thing that exists. How does it manifest itself? With the best punter in the nation, Florida was just seventh in the SEC covering punts, allowing 9.46 yards per return.

True freshman kicker Eddy Pineiro made 18 of 22 field goals. He made three field goals of 50-plus yards and nine of 40-plus this season.

Callaway is a solid returner at 7.38 yards per return.

King led the Big Ten with 27.2 yards per kick return. He finished third with 9.8 yards per punt return. King likely won't come off the field on defense. If he shows special teams spark Monday, it probably makes him some NFL money.

Ferentz called punter and kickoff specialist Ron Coluzzi an 'unsung hero' this week. Coluzzi averaged 41.3 yards per punt and led the Big Ten in touchback percentage. Coluzzi gave Iowa a boost in field position game down the stretch.

More: Coluzzi's college career ends in palm trees

Special teams was a big strength for Florida through a season that saw the Gators claim their second consecutive SEC East Division title. Can Iowa neutralize that Monday?

Advantage: Florida

INTANGIBLES

1. Streak pressure — Iowa has lost its last four bowl games. That's not cool for anyone. The seniors on this team have never won a bowl. They actually kind of hate that. A bowl victory was one of the top goals for the Hawkeyes this season. That does put some undue pressure on this, as if beating Florida in Florida wasn't enough.

2. Hey, it is Florida in Florida — Iowa likely will be outnumbered at Raymond James Stadium. It's a two-hour drive from Gainesville to Tampa, so math and mileage say, yes, there will be more Gators fans. For what it's worth, Iowa sold nearly all of its 8,500 allotment. Outback officials told Iowa athletics director Gary Barta that Iowa fans have bought tickets from the bowl. Let's put the over/under for Iowa fans at 15,000? What do you think?

3. Pressure pressure — As you all know, Ferentz signed a contract extension through 2025 earlier this fall. He's good as far as that goes. This is McElwain's second year. He's considered a QB whisperer, but that's probably not happening until one of his star true freshmen takes over next season. It's his second year, so McElwain is good. This is the SEC and losing three straight to end the season and falling to Iowa wouldn't go over well, but it's only McElwain's second year. He's good. Probably.

FLORIDA WILL WIN IF ... The offense can put five explosive plays on the Hawkeyes. If this leans shootout — it can't, can it? not with these two defenses — that probably goes Florida's way.

IOWA WILL WIN IF ... The offense plays its best game of the season. That's a general statement, but can the Hawkeyes get more from the rushing game than it did against Nebraska? If yes, that's serious advantage Iowa. Can Iowa get anything out of the passing game? This is less likely, but Iowa's passing game is coming off an efficient and explosive performance against Nebraska.

PREDICTION: Iowa 23, Florida 20

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com