2-Minute Drill: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

For the really big dreamers out there, no, Iowa isn't out of the Big Ten West Division race.

But, big dreamer, it comes down to this: Purdue, 1-6 in the B1G and 3-7 overall, has to beat Wisconsin Saturday to keep hope alive. If the Boilermakers topple No. 7 Wisconsin and the Hawkeyes (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) win at Illinois (3-7, 2-5), Iowa would be 5-3 in the league and would still need the Badgers to lose at home in their season finale against Minnesota, a game they've won 12 straight times. Wisconsin's victory over Iowa gives it the tiebreaker.

Right now, big dreamer, your hopes are pinned on Purdue. There's more.

But there's also Northwestern. The Wildcats are 4-3 and finish at Minnesota and against Illinois. Iowa can't finished tied with Northwestern, either, after losing to the Cats earlier this season.

Big dreamer, are we really talking about this?

In Iowa's victory celebration after the 14-13 victory last week over No. 3 Michigan, a number of Hawkeyes had their helmets, ahem, borrowed by fans who streamed onto the field and grabbed anything that looked like a souvenir. Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said all helmets were returned by Monday morning.

The Hawkeyes experienced euphoria last Saturday night at Kinnick Stadium. This Saturday, they'll go into Memorial Stadium, which likely will be half empty, for an 11 a.m. kickoff.

This is what we should be talking about, big dreamer. Iowa needs to make sure its cleats are on the ground Saturday morning.

ILLINOIS RUSH DEFENSE VS. IOWA RUSH OFFENSE

Illinois head coach Lovie Smith made his coaching bones with the Tampa 2 defense. This takes time and right now Illinois is going through some of those growing pains.

The Fighting Illini have allowed 27 rushing touchdowns this season, tied for 13th in the Big Ten and tied for 115th in the nation. Illinois also allows 209.0 rushing yards a game and has yielded 63 rushes of 10-plus yards this season (11th in the league).

Smith runs Tampa 2 with a 4-3. He wants his defenders to play a simple game and play fast and destructive on the field. Illinois has defensive linemen to make this go right now, it's linebackers and defensive backs that are working on it.

Led by senior defensive end Carroll Phillips, the Illini are third in the B1G and sixth in the nation with 8.2 tackles for loss per game. Phillips (6-3, 240) leads the league with 17.0 tackles for loss and 8.0 sacks.

November 13, 2016

#Illini DE Carroll Phillips leads the Big Ten in both TFLs (17.0) and sacks (8.0). @_wildman7. pic.twitter.com/Hg89lBgrDd

— Illini Football (@IlliniFootball)

Keep it up,

Iowa went into the week with tackle Ike Boettger questionable. He left the Michigan game before the final drive with an ankle injury. Ferentz said on his radio show Wednesday that Boettger was progressing, but he wasn't definitive in a return. If Boettger isn't able to go, it might get interesting for the Hawkeyes. Redshirt freshman Levi Paulsen is probably next in, but is he a tackle or guard? Against Michigan, right guard Sean Welsh slid out to right tackle, and Paulsen went inside.

Paulsen is just getting his eye black smudged on this level. Last season, center James Daniels faced down this Illinois D-line, with three returning starters, and learned what it takes to play Big Ten football.

Iowa has the running backs to fuel a running game, in Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels. It will want to do just that on the road, coming off the program's biggest victory in maybe eight years. Boettger's health is a big key.

Advantage: Iowa

ILLINOIS PASS DEFENSE VS. IOWA PASS OFFENSE

Illinois is last in the B1G allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.5 percent of their passes. That's 109th in the nation and that's a lot of third-down conversions and 32 pass plays of 20-plus yards (12th in the league).

Junior cornerback Jaylen Dunlap (6-1, 190) has stood out. In Illinois' victory over Michigan State, Dunlap broke up four passes, tied for 10th most in a game in program history and most by an Illinois player since 2002. Dunlap's 10 breakups are fourth in the league.

As Smith's defense progresses, there will be increasing responsibility spilled to the linebackers. This season, the Illini have productive players in senior graduate transfer Hardy Nickerson (son of Illini defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson) and sophomore Tre Watson. Nickerson (6-0, 230) is third in the Big Ten with 92 tackles this season. Watson (6-2, 240) earned Big Ten defensive player of the week in the victory over Michigan State (16 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and a pass breakup).

Illinois, which plays eight defensive linemen, is good at pressuring the QB. Phillips leads the Big Ten in sacks per game (.80). End Dawuane Smoot is seventh in sacks per game (.70). Defensive tackle Chunky Clements has 3.5 sacks. This trio kept pressure on Iowa QB C.J. Beathard in last year's 29-20 Hawkeyes victory.

Say this about Iowa's passing game: Last week, Michigan came into the game tracking the number of QBs it had knocked out of games this season. It never did land the knockout punch on Beathard.

Iowa passed for just 66 yards, but offensive coordinator Greg Davis used Michigan's overaggression against the Wolverines, hitting Wadley on screens and swing passes.

That's not an optimum number, but last week it part of a winning effort. That can't hold up again, can it? No, no way. Well, Illinois does start three freshmen in the secondary, so ... Oh, is Iowa's offense sustainable when Wadley produces nearly 73 percent of it? It worked against the No. 3 team in the nation last week, but that can't be sustainable, can it? Nah, can't be.

Advantage: Illinois

ILLINOIS RUSH OFFENSE VS. IOWA RUSH DEFENSE

The Illini have been held to less than 100 rushing yards four times this season, including an ugly 3 yards against Western Michigan (after sack yardage was subtracted). That number was put up in late September and you could argue that it's shaped how coordinator Garrick McGee calls plays.

Illinois has kind of abandoned the run. Its 303 attempts are last in the Big Ten and 124th nationally. Injuries have forced five O-line shuffles for the Illini. This should be the fifth straight week with the same group. Illinois has running backs. Junior Kendrick Foster (5-9, 200) leads with 671 yards and nine total TDs. He hit Michigan State with a career-high 146 yards on 17 carries. Foster has three TD runs of 50-plus yards, tied for seventh most in FBS. Reggie Corbin (5-10, 185) has 442 yards (7.37 yards per carry), and Ke'Shawn Vaughn (5-10, 210) has 301 yards (5.02 per carry).

A week after allowing 359 yards at Penn State (third-most in Ferentz's 18 seasons), Iowa held Michigan, the No. 2 rushing offense in the Big Ten, to 98 yards. That was the fewest rushing yards for the Wolverines in 10 games.

How did Iowa do that? Defensive tackles Jaleel Johnson and Faith Ekakitie performed. Johnson might've planted a flag in a first-team all-conference bid with his nine-tackle performance, including a sack and a tackle for loss that was a safety.

The Illini will attack in an entirely different way. It's a pistol read-option attack. Penn State hammered Iowa on the perimeter. Michigan tested Iowa between the tackles. Illinois runs more of what Penn State runs.

But Illinois doesn't have Saquon Barkley and doesn't have a credible runner at QB.

Advantage: Iowa

ILLINOIS PASS OFFENSE VS. IOWA PASS DEFENSE

Illinois might have a decision to make at quarterback.

Redshirt freshman Jeff George Jr. threw four interceptions in the first half against Wisconsin last week and was yanked in favor of senior Wes Lunt, who sat out the previous four games with a back injury. Lunt threw for 2,761 yards with 14 TDs and six interceptions last season. In three seasons at Illinois, Lunt has 34 TD passes and just 10 picks.

Lunt completed 2 of 8 passes for 22 yards against Wisconsin, but it sounds as if he's poised to return full-time.

'I thought he felt confident in where his body was,' McGee said. 'He's done a lot of good work at practice sessions, though, the last couple of weeks. It's unfortunate how the season's going, unfortunate how Jeff played the other day, but to see Wes get to run out there on this field for the last time is a pretty good deal.'

Illinois' offensive line has allowed just 15 sacks this season (fifth in the league). Junior Malik Turner (6-3, 205) leads Illinois with 36 catches for 535 yards and four TDs. He has three catches of 40-plus yards.

Injuries shaped Iowa's secondary against Michigan. Senior cornerback Greg Mabin, a three-year starter, is out for the regular season with a broken bone in his lower leg. True freshman Manny Rugamba started and had an interception with three pass breakups to earn B1G co-freshman of the week. Rugamba won his way into the lineup out of camp as a nickel defensive back. Now, he's a starter.

On the second play of the game, junior strong safety Miles Taylor left the game because of a suspected concussion. Senior Anthony Gair replaced him and responded with seven tackles and a half tackle for loss. Ferentz said Wednesday that Taylor's status would be decided Thursday.

Led by Johnson, Iowa's pass rush put consistent pressure last week on Michigan QB Wilton Speight. The Hawkeyes are sixth in the B1G with 22.0 sacks.

Advantage: Iowa

SPECIAL TEAMS

Illinois kicker Chase McLaughlin kicked a career-long 53-yard field goal against Minnesota on Oct. 29, tied for the fourth-longest in school history. McLaughlin has made 12 of 16 field goals.

Illinois is 11th in the league in punt coverage, allowing 9.6 yards per return. The Hawkeyes are last, allowing 13.0 yards a return. Iowa has the upper hand in the punt returner department. Senior cornerback Desmond King is No. 2 in the Big Ten with 8.74 yards per return.

King still leads the Big Ten in kick returns (27.27 yards per). Illinois counters with Green, who's ninth with 20.15 a return. Illinois is last in the B1G in kick coverage, allowing 24.14 yards per return. Iowa punter/kickoff specialist Ron Coluzzi is second in the B1G with 34 touchbacks. McLaughlin is 11th with only 11.

Is Keith Duncan an Iowa legend nine field goals into his career? Yeah, he is.

Advantage: Iowa

INTANGIBLES

1. Traaaaaaaaaaap game — Last week was pretty cool, huh? 10 million people watched on TV when Duncan booted a 33-yarder through the uprights to seal Iowa's 14-13 upset over No. 3 Michigan. You know what Iowa's November has been: at Penn State, Michigan, now at Illinois and then Heroes Trophy game in the Black Friday season finale against Nebraska. Which one of those is not like the others? Illinois probably would consider this a season-maker.

2. How can a guy named Lovie be miserable? — Going into November, Illini head coach Lovie Smith found himself responding to an ESPN.com report that quoted anonymous sources saying Smith is 'miserable' in Champaign.

Smith acknowledged the first nine months on the job haven't been easy. He's not happy with where the program sits.

'Am I happy right now with where we are? No,' Smith said. 'No one on our football team is happy where we are right now. Our time in Champaign is bigger than where we are right now.'

After a 48-3 blur last week at Wisconsin, this would be a good week for Smith to poke holes in the misery index.

3. Traaaaaaaaaaap game II — Through six home games this season, Illinois has averaged 46,735 fans in 60,670-seat Memorial Stadium (77 percent of capacity). When the Illini played host to Michigan State, several MSU beat writers posted pictures to Twitter showing a lot of empty seats. Atmosphere can drag a team down. Iowa is not a team that can afford to be dragged down.

Spirited crowd here in Champaign November 5, 2016

Spirited crowd here in Champaign pic.twitter.com/nFfdo8IJMY

— Kyle Austin (@kylebaustin)

ILLINOIS WILL WIN IF ... The Illini's defensive line dictates the line of scrimmage. Illinois returns three D-linemen who forced Iowa to lean so heavily on running back Jordan Canzeri in last season's 29-20 Iowa victory that he set a school record with 43 carries. Iowa's offensive line has dealt with injuries all season. This is Illinois' best way in the door.

IOWA WILL WIN IF ... It boxes in Illinois' running game. Lunt is returning from a back injury. Iowa has been decent at getting to the QB this season. Beyond Turner, Illinois doesn't have a big receiving threat. If Iowa makes Illinois one-dimensional, the Hawkeyes' offense will have time to make something happen. Maybe even something that doesn't run through Wadley, who has been a huge part of Iowa's offense in November.

PREDICTION: Iowa 24, Illinois 10

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com