2-Minute Drill: Illinois Fighting Illini at Iowa Hawkeyes

It feels like good things are going to happen for Illinois athletics under second-year athletics director Josh Whitman.

He is Illinois athletics. The former Fighting Illini tight end met his wife while in school there. When he began his career as an Illini tight end in 1997, Illinois finished 0-11. In 1999, Illinois finished 8-4 and played in the MicronPC Bowl in Miami, Fla.

Whitman is 'of' Illinois. Maybe head football coach Lovie Smith is there, too. Maybe not. This is his second season in Champaign-Urbana. It's early, but he's 5-11 and the call to arms is 'opportunity,' with 11 true freshmen earning starts so far this season. That's the most in the nation.

Whether Smith's Illinois (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten) gets on track isn't Iowa's problem. Iowa (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) has opened the Big Ten season with losses against top-tier league programs.

For Iowa, Saturday is all about keeping Illinois down. That might sound harsh, but that's kind of what this is all about.

It's just better for Iowa if Illinois stays 'tame.' Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz gets this. He's 8-3 against Illinois. This time of year, he doesn't say things that reflect globally, but you know the Big Ten West Division works better for Iowa if one of its border rivals is 'compliant.'

Yes, harsh, but Iowa wants and maybe needs to keep Illinois in a headlock.

Saturday's game kicks off at 11:01 a.m. and is on the Big Ten Network.

Illinois rush defense vs. Iowa rush offense

Smith is a devotee of the Tampa 2 defense, which the Illini use with a 4-2-5 alignment. The Illini are extremely young across the board and the defensive line reflects that, with a true freshman and two sophomores.

Linebackers DelShawn Phillips and Tre Watson are active (4.5 tackles for loss combined), but the Illini are 92nd in the nation against the run (179.5 yards a game, 4.20 yards per carry).

Illinois' best bet is to copycat what Penn State and Michigan State did to the Hawkeyes' run game the last two weeks — throw a hyperaggressive scheme at Iowa and force it to pass.

The season is just half over and these numbers are subject to change, but the Hawkeyes are steaming toward rushing numbers well below standard. Iowa's 3.39 yards per carry is 13th in the B1G, just ahead of Illinois.

More: How Iowa's offensive line got here

Iowa hasn't had any timing among running backs and the O-line, mostly because PSU and MSU didn't let it. Between run pressures and flat-out quickness, Iowa has been beaten out of the blocks too much. Snap count and motions can sometimes be starter's pistols for a defense.

That's a simple take and it probably doesn't hold Saturday. If the Hawkeyes don't get the running game off Saturday, something is broken. Really broken.

Advantage: Iowa

Illinois pass defense vs. Iowa pass offense

Illinois is selling opportunity. The first three pages of the school's game notes this week included items like 'Fresh Faces,' 'New Kids on the Quad' and 'Youth Gone Wild.' (Sense a 1990s theme?)

Some of the factlets for the Illini's secondary are astounding. Safety Bennett Williams is the first true freshman safety to start since at least 1980. Corner Tony Adams was the first true frosh to start an opener at corner since Vontae Davis in 2006.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed 62.4 percent of their passes against Illinois (92nd in the country). The Illini are getting after the QB. Freshman DE Bobby Roundtree (6-5, 245) leads the nation's true freshmen with .75 sacks per game. Illinois has 10.0 sacks.

Last week was the first time a long miss in the passing game hurt the Hawkeyes. Sophomore quarterback Nate Stanley missed four potential long TDs against Iowa State and Iowa lived to tell. He missed WR Matt VandeBerg for a probable TD last week in a seven-point game.

This has become stuck in peoples' minds. Sure, one of these would be nice, but what might be better are higher-percentage passes. Since hitting an eye-popping 65.9 percent of passes vs. Iowa State, Stanley has trended down in this area (to be fair, only. Last week, MSU held Iowa's passing offense to 51.6 percent (16 of 31).

Everyone digs the long ball, but Iowa needs to focus on moving the chains right now.

Advantage: Push

Illinois rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense

The 'young' theme continues. Eleven of Illinois' 14 offensive linemen are freshmen and sophomores. Tackle Larry Boyd (6-6, 340) and guard Alex Palczewski (6-6, 290) are true freshmen who've started the last three games.

There are freak athletes everywhere, including the line of scrimmage, but all things being equal, this is where body maturity matters. A 22-year-old defensive tackle is going to have X more years in the weight room than a true freshman.

True freshman running back Mike Epstein has been productive, leading the Illini with 263 rushing yards (5.26 per carry, 50 carries) and three TDs. But Illinois is last in the league with just 106 rush yards a game. The 3.21 yards per carry is tied for 113th in the nation.

Illinois has rushed for just 106 yards in the first quarter this year (113th).

Iowa's numbers against the run might be among the best in the country if it weren't for Saquon Barkley, Penn State and the 295 rushing yards they hung on Iowa. Still, in a year where Iowa's running game is a mile off standard, the run defense has been there.

The Hawkeyes could control first down better. They're allowing a healthy 4.86 yards on 83 first-down carries (12th in the B1G).

Advantage: Iowa

Illinois pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense

The big news out of Illinois this week was a change at quarterback. Smith was forced to pull the plug on junior Chayce Crouch, who completed just nine passes for 99 yards in a loss against Nebraska last week. Jeff George Jr. replaces Crouch. The only time this year Illinois has passed for more than 200 yards was when George replaced Crouch against South Florida.

George, the son of former Illinois and NFL quarterback Jeff George, completed 12 of 22 for 211 yards, a TD and two interceptions. Freshman Cam Thomas is now the No. 2 QB.

This will certainly change the rhythm of Illinois' offense. Crouch was more of a dual-threat. George likes to sling the ball around. That's an awfully big shift to make five games into the season, but Illinois' hand was forced. The Illini hit on just 54.0 percent of their passes (102nd) and had two TD passes to go with six interceptions.

Iowa corner Manny Rugamba still is iffy with a lower-leg injury. He missed last week, and Michigan State challenged sophomore Michael Ojemudia, Rugamba's replacement. He was targeted three times on the Spartans' opening drive, including the 22-yard TD that finished it.

Iowa probably gets junior safety Brandon Snyder back this week. He suffered a torn ACL in April, but has been medically cleared for return. Now, who goes to the bench if Snyder can get into the lineup, sophomore Amani Hooker or senior Miles Taylor? Hooker hasn't budged since replacing Jake Gervase in the North Texas game. Taylor was replaced for the final four games of 2016.

Advantage: Iowa

Special teams

Cornerback Josh Jackson made a few shaky decisions in punt return last week and it cost the Hawkeyes field position. Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz wouldn't divulge exactly what Jackson's instructions are on fielding a punt inside the 10, but Jackson said if the ball looks like it's going over his head and if he has to back up, he's supposed to let it go.

Jackson has been one of Iowa's best defensive players this year. He's in the circle of trust and probably keeps the punt return job. He's only held this for four games and has returned just three punts. It's early. No rash decisions.

Speaking of 'early' and 'decisions,' Ferentz seemed ready to make a move at punter after sophomore Colten Rastetter couldn't boot Iowa out of field-position trouble vs. MSU. 'Seemed' is the key. Because the offense couldn't punch it out from inside its 10, Rastetter was forced to punt from deep inside Iowa territory three times. This is where Rastetter's 37.8-yard average hurt, but it's also punting from inside your own 10, maybe one of the bigger headaches a special teams unit faces in a game.

The Fighting Illini's coverage units are in the Big Ten's top five. Kicker Chase McLaughlin has made 5 of 6 field goals.

Advantage: Iowa

Intangibles

1. Snortin' mad — That's the attitude you'd expect Iowa to take. Well, it doesn't do that. Ferentz set the tone for this week almost immediately following MSU when he said his team needs to hit the 'improve button' and not the panic button. By design, Iowa isn't rah-rah. Instead, the focus is on the fixes. There are plenty of those.

2. Big Ten West O' Meter — Iowa is 0-2 and in last place in the West. Yes, it's going to be tough. Ferentz didn't want to get too deep here this week, and that's fine. It's part of the 'nah rah-rah' mentality. Last year, Iowa was eliminated from West contention when Purdue couldn't beat Wisconsin. Right now, Iowa doesn't control its own destiny and it has to play like it.

3. Youthful exuberance — What else is Lovie Smith going to pitch to his young team? Illinois has played 19 first-time starters, that's second-most in the FBS behind Baylor. If Smith's young players survive the break-in process, it will have a chance to throw punches in a year or two.

Iowa-Illinois prediction

Illinois will win if ... it gets points for playing true freshmen. Kidding. If the Illini's defense flies toward the line of scrimmage, what's Iowa going to do? Severe disruption is Illinois' best shot.

Iowa will win if ... it can develop any sort of rhythm in the running game. Yes, running game, running game, running game. There's a lot of attention going to that. Injuries have had a say with Iowa's O-line. Iowa has a sophomore QB and a passing game that's still digging out of the rubble of last season, when it had the worst output for an Iowa team since 1982. Opponents won't relent. Iowa is going to have to block its way out of this funk.

Prediction: Iowa 34, Illinois 14

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com