2-Minute Drill: Illinois Fighting Illini

IOWA RUSH OFFENSE VS. ILLINOIS RUSH DEFENSE

Overall, there's no question Illinois' defense has improved. The numbers are up across with the board. The Fighting Illini rank in the top 25 nationally in nine different stats, including total defense (21st), scoring defense (23rd) and turnovers gained (24th). That's all positive, but there is a funny money element to some of the Illini's numbers. They've held Kent State, Western Illinois and Middle Tennessee State to less than 100 yards rushing. North Carolina and Nebraska, two legit FBS programs, rushed for 254 and 187, respectively.

Former Illinois coach Tim Beckman this summer hired Mike Phair from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a co-coordinator with Tim Banks. The idea was to fix the run defense (Phair also coaches defensive line). It's not something that happens overnight and there will be plenty of tests ahead.

Illinois plays a 3-4 (three D-linemen with a strongside LB) with an active and stout defensive line that led the way to 6.0 tackles for loss against Nebraska. End Jihad Ward (6-6, 295), noseguard Chunky Clements (6-3, 290) and tackle Rob Bain (6-3, 300) provided push last week. LEO linebacker Dawuane Smoot is third in the B1G 8.5 tackles for loss. Weakside LB Mason Monheim is the No. 2 active tackler in FBS with 331 career tackles.

Iowa found inside yards last week against Wisconsin. Illinois could be a stiffer test. Iowa's running game is waiting for RB LeShun Daniels to get back on track since an ankle injury Sept. 12 at Iowa State. Head coach Kirk Ferentz said in the postgame that he's still bothered by the injury, but Daniels was used on a third-and-2 at Wisconsin's 8-yard line last week.

Senior RB Jordan Canzeri likely will continue in as Iowa's main back. He's sixth in the Big Ten with 441 rushing yards. Three of his five career 100-yard rushing games have come this season.

Advantage: Iowa

IOWA PASS OFFENSE VS. ILLINOIS PASS DEFENSE

The Banks-Phair defense has taken advantage of veteran players. Illinois is now able to roll different coverages at opposing quarterbacks. The result has been seven interceptions (tied with Iowa for the B1G high) and 18 passes defended. Strong safety Taylor Barton (6-1, 215), a third-year starter who symbolizes the strides UI has made, leads with three interceptions. Corners V'Angelo Bentley (5-10, 190) and Eaton Spence (6-0, 185) have allowed the Illini's front to run some different pressures and generally play an aggressive game because they've shown they can handle man coverage. Senior free safety Clayton Fejedelem leads Illinois with 48 tackles.

One extremely impressive number from last week was holding Nebraska star receiver Jordan Westerkamp, a top five receiver in the B1G, to just one reception for minus-1 yard. A lot of that was with Bentley covering. Expect Bentley to be stapled to Iowa junior Matt VandeBerg, who's second in the B1G with 31 receptions.

The Illini have employed a more aggressive front under Phair. Still, Illinois is last in the Big Ten with 5.0 sacks. The Hawkeyes showed last week that a pass rush can shut them down.

Quarterback C.J. Beathard was sacked four times and hit at least a half dozen if not more and it translated to his worst numbers and Iowa's fewest passing yards since 92 in a 2012 loss to Nebraska.

Iowa again will miss senior wide receiver Tevaun Smith, who'll likely be out until after Iowa's bye week on Oct. 31 vs. Maryland. True freshman Jerminic Smith (6-1, 180) started and saw four targets with no catches. He did get open a few times, but there was no chemistry or timing between he and Beathard. Maybe another week pushes that along, but Jerminic Smith won't win as many battles for position than Tevaun Smith did. That's just the physical difference between a senior and a freshman.

Iowa's passing game last week made a living off Beathard throwing VandeBerg open when there was very little 'open” in coverage.

Advantage: Push

ILLINOIS RUSH OFFENSE VS. IOWA RUSH DEFENSE

Running back Josh Ferguson is likely to miss today's game after injuring his right shoulder in the first quarter against Nebraska. This took a lot of the power out of what interim head coach Bill Cubit wanted to do against the Huskers. Before the injury, Ferguson lined up in a handful of two-back sets and had success, including a 48-yard run.

This might turnout to be more of an unveiling than a fill-in for true freshman running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn (5-10, 205 pounds). Illinois nabbed the Rivals.com four-star recruit out of Pearl-Cohn High School in Nashville, Tenn. Vaughn had a mountain of offers, with West Virginia and Louisville among his final four schools. Notre Dame, Ohio State and Tennessee also offered. Vaughn already has rushed for 325 yards on 76 carries, including 98 on 24 vs. Nebraska. The Illini might be OK here.

Illinois runs a lot of different formations - heavy with an extra linemen stuff and five-wide spread - and can turn up the tempo when necessary. Last week, it ran three plays in the span of 23 seconds. Illinois' 407 plays is sixth in the nation and second in the Big Ten (Indiana 422).

Against Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes wanted to take away the run and did exactly that. Iowa held the Badgers to 86 yards on 34 carries. Iowa played a lot of base defense on run downs. Inside linebackers Josey Jewell and Cole Fisher shed blocks. Defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson continued the steady push up front he's given Iowa all season.

The Hawkeyes were dinged in the running game against the spread hurry-up that North Texas threw at them (183 rushing yards). The Illini didn't show it a ton last week, but it does have that gear.

Advantage: Iowa

ILLINOIS PASS OFFENSE VS. IOWA PASS DEFENSE

Sharks, volcanoes, librarians on the hunt for overdue books, Illinois QB Wes Lunt doesn't care. The Illini have seven fourth-quarter comeback victories the last two seasons and Lunt has five of those, including Illinois' last two games (27-25 over Middle Tennessee State and 14-13 over Nebraska). Lunt hit WR Geronimo Allison for a 1-yard TD with 10 seconds left to lift Illinois over the Huskers.

Lunt set UI's season pass efficiency record last season (141.61). He tied his career high with four TDs in the opener against Kent State. Lunt leads the B1G with 22.2 completions a game and is third in passing yards per game (221.4) and TD passes (eight). Lunt has a big arm and quick release. He took over during UI's seven-play, 72-yard game-winning drive vs. UNL. The yards came on three completions, including a 50-yarder to wide receiver Malik Turner.

Allison (6-4, 195), a juco transfer from Iowa Western Community College, leads the Big Ten with 32 catches and 453 yards. Wide receiver Marchie Murdock (6-1, 195) started the fourth-quarter charge with a 22-yard TD reception.

The Hawkeyes are fourth in the Big Ten with 16 sacks. With defensive ends Nate Meier (5.0) and Drew Ott (4.0) leading the way, the Hawkeyes are fourth in the Big Ten in sacks and are on pace to have one of their better seasons disrupting the QB.

Junior cornerback Desmond King netted his second multi-interception game of the season with two vs. Wisconsin. He leads the Big Ten with five interceptions and has been a punishing tackler. Three of King's five interceptions this season have led to scores, including the game's only TD last week. With eight games left this season, King is just three off Iowa's season interception record of eight, held by Nile Kinnick (1931) and Lou King (1981).

Advantage: Push

SPECIAL TEAMS

If this game feels as if it will be one-on-one hoops to 21, it's because King and Bentley are playing copy cat in the return game. Bentley is fourth in the league with seven kick returns for a 25.0-yard average. King is with 12 for 22.5. King is second in the B1G with 18.71 yards on seven punt returns. Bentley is sixth with 11.67 yards on 12 returns. Bentley is UI's career leader in kick return yardage. He's No. 8 in career punt return average (12.6) among active FBS players.

Both kickers are coming off rough outings last week. Iowa's Marshall Koehn missed a 27-yard field goal, his first and only miss this season, but he'd be the first to tell you a 27-miss is unacceptable. Illinois' Taylor Zalewski missed on 51- and 41-yard attempts, in the swirling winds of UI's Memorial Stadium. That said, both have hit 50-plus yarders to win games for their teams this season. Of course, you remember Koehn's 57-yarder on the final play against Pitt. Zalewski hit a 51-yarder with 2:02 left to lift Illinois over Middle Tennessee State.

Illinois is tied for the NCAA lead with three blocked kicks already this season (two punts, one field goal).

Advantage: Push

INTANGIBLES

1. Cubit crusade

- The majority of Illinois players were recruited by Tim Beckman, who was dismissed one week before the season started amid allegations of influencing medical decisions and pressuring players to play hurt. Maybe there are embedded holdovers, but it really seems as if the Illini have bought into interim coach Bill Cubit. The 61-year-old hasn't acted like an interim anything. In fact, he might be the perfect coach for this situation, having been in the game since the mid-1970s, including head coach at Western Michigan from 2005-12 (which included a victory over Iowa at Kinnick in 2007). Illinois is a team in unison. So far, there's no arguing the Beckman firing has been addition by subtraction.

2. Winning pretty, winning ugly

- Iowa has won with Beathard making something happen out of nearly thin air (rushing for six first downs vs. Pitt). It won with a great second half on both sides of the ball at Iowa State. Then last weekend, the Hawkeyes claimed the Heartland Trophy after a very, very Iowa-Wisconsin football game (read: lots of blocking and tackling and not much else). When it's been the offense's turn, it made it happen. Same for the defense, Beathard, Koehn and, last week, King. Iowa is so balanced that it's three Big Ten weekly award winners this season have come from each unit (Beathard, Koehn and King last week).

3. Until the game is won

- If this becomes a game of chicken, both teams have been there and done that. Illinois has won its last two games by a total of three points. Two of Iowa's wins have come down to the final possession (27-24 over Pitt, 10-6 over UW). Last season, Iowa was 2-4 in games decided by a TD or less. Illinois was 2-0. Who does this favor? It favors a thrilling finish, right?

IOWA WILL WIN IF

... It's awfully early to take this number and try to pump a lot of air into it, but Iowa's offense has been clipping along at a relatively healthy 5.92 yards per play this season. That's fourth in the Big Ten and tracking toward Iowa's best since 6.18 in 2010. Wisconsin happened, yes, but Iowa also lost a key cog in its receiving corps with Tevaun Smith's sprained knee knocking him out until Oct. 31. With Smith and his 19.58 yards a catch (second in the Big Ten), Iowa needs to find some explosion and land as closely as possible to 6.0 yards a play as it can. That's a winning number.

ILLINOIS WILL WIN IF

... The Illini are third in the Big Ten in opponent's third down conversions (21.72 percent). The more Illinois keeps Iowa's offense off schedule, the better its chance to win. The smarter way to say that is if Illinois keeps Iowa on first and second down from gaining 50 percent of needed yards for a first down, the more Iowa will be forced to pass. The Hawkeyes lost some ground there last week. Illinois can't allow them to get it back.

PREDICTION

: Iowa 27, Illinois 14

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com