Youngstown State road trip could be important for UNI football’s playoff hopes

Editor’s note: 11th in a 12-part series looking at the Northern Iowa football opponents in 2024

CEDAR FALLS — An unrelenting schedule sends Northern Iowa to 25th-ranked Youngstown State in Week 12.

The Penguins — picked seventh in the Missouri Valley Football Conference’s preseason poll — finished the 2023 regular season 7-4 and reached the FCS playoffs for the first time since 2016.

Seven starters return for the YSU offense, including four on its offensive line. But replacing quarterback Mitch Davidson won’t be easy. Sophomore Beau Brungard — who played limited snaps in all 13 games last season — is the favorite to win the job among a trio that includes Central Florida transfer Brady Shannon and sophomore Max Blanc.

Offensive lineman Jaison Williams and running back Tyshon King are the Penguins’ two preseason All-MVFC first-team honorees.

King ran for 1,011 yards and nine touchdowns last season for an offense that ranked fourth in the MVFC in points per game (32.0) and yards (410.2).

Wide receiver Max Tomczak received second-team All-MVFC preseason honors and is joined by three FBS transfers at the position for 2024.

Only one starter returns for the Penguins on defense and 13 of their top 14 tacklers have departed. John Haneline is a first-year defensive coordinator and the five FBS transfers added on defense have little to no game experience.

UNI at Youngstown State: 3 things to watch

1. Defensive deficiency?

Everything on paper points toward the YSU defense having a steep hill to climb to replicate its sixth-place ranking in the MVFC from 2023.

As long as UNI has its quarterback and “Air Raid-adjacent” offense solidified when this matchup rolls around, it’s not out of the question that the Panthers could be a road favorite despite the Penguins entering the season in the top 25.

2. UNI’s ‘Air Raid-adjacent’ offense

This matchup is among a handful on UNI’s schedule that strongly suggests leaning on its talented, experienced offensive line and trio of running backs.

Even if the Panthers’ new offense is operating well in the air and on the ground, being stubborn with their run game to wear down an inexperienced YSU defense could be an uncomplicated, winning game plan.

3. Road warriors?

So far, game-by-game predictions have included two road wins for UNI against ranked MVFC opponents. Can the Panthers realistically have three road conference wins against preseason top-25 teams, or, is the nearly 700-mile trip east to Youngstown State just the type of game that catches up with a team that has a brutally tough schedule like UNI’s?

Prediction for UNI at Youngstown State

A win at YSU could solidify an at-large bid for the Panthers in the FCS playoffs. It’s one of, if not the toughest of the MVFC’s road trips, but UNI Coach Mark Farley’s 16-3 record all-time against the Penguins speaks for itself.

UNI gets a critical win for its playoff resume to improve to 6-5, so important it could allow for a slip up at home against Indiana State in its regular-season finale.