UNI football vs. Western Illinois: Live stream, 3 keys to the game, prediction

CEDAR FALLS — Just four weeks into its 2022 season Northern Iowa faces a must-win game.

After losses at Air Force and North Dakota, and a home loss to No. 7 Sacramento State last Saturday, the Panthers risk falling to 0-4 if they’re unable to win at Western Illinois (0-3) Saturday.

Picked last in the Missouri Valley Football Conference’s preseason poll, the Leathernecks finished 2021 with 2-9 overall and 2-6 conference records in what was coach Myers Hendrickson’s first season.

Western Illinois is coming off a 17-10 loss at home to Southern Utah. Its other two losses came in Week 1 at Tennessee-Martin and Week 2 at Minnesota.

The Leathernecks have gotten their yards on offense with committees at quarterback and running back.

Nick Davenport, Henry Ogala and Clay Bruno have attempted at least 31 passes this season, but Davenport is the only signal caller to have played in all three games. All three quarterbacks have played a part in the running game, along with backs Ludovick Choquette and Erin Collins.

UNI leads the all-time series 33-16 and won last season’s matchup at the UNI-Dome, 41-3.

Here are three keys to victory for the Panthers.

1. Bring the heat

UNI’s defensive struggles are well documented through the first three weeks of its season. Tackling has been poor, pressure from the defensive line has been inconsistent and coverages have sometimes broken down.

Coach Mark Farley has remained confident despite his team’s struggles due to the unit having so many veterans. The matchup against the Leathernecks is simply one the Panthers cannot afford to lose.

Farley has pointed out in the past that rushing with more than four is always a gamble, but given his defense’s struggles and the lack of horsepower from WIU’s offense it seems like as good of a matchup as any to bring the heat and call more blitzes than usual. If early blitzes bring results it could play a part in the Panthers defense finally getting into a rhythm.

2. Dialing long-distance

Co-offensive coordinators Bodie Reeder and Ryan Clanton have to be pleased with how well their new scheme has looked so far this season.

While there have been some red zone and ball security issues, the Panthers rank first in the MVFC in total offense (419 yards per game) and second in passing yards per game (296.7).

Perhaps most exciting about the new scheme has been its flashes of verticality.

In the Week 2 loss at North Dakota, quarterback Theo Day connected on a season-high 72-yard completion to Deion McShane. Last week, Day hit Logan Wolf for a 34-yard touchdown pass and in Week 1 against Air Force, McShane reeled in a 40-yard reception.

Against a vulnerable defense like Western Illinois’ there’s no reason why Reeder and Clanton shouldn’t be as much, or more, aggressive in taking shots down the field in the passing game.

3. Get exotic

Three weeks gone by and no wins to show for it ought to make it as likely as ever for the Panthers to whip out a trick play or two against the Leathernecks.

It may even be as easy as a gadge play that’s not on film yet that could catch WIU by surprise and lead to quick, early points.

UNI’s 34-20 win over WIU in the 2021 spring season began with a 75-yard Isaiah Weston catch on a motion route. Something similar could allow the Panthers to not have to play from behind for the first time this season.

UNI football at Western Illinois

Kickoff time: 3 p.m. (CT)

TV: none

Live stream: ESPN+

Prediction: UNI 27, Western Illinois 17