UNI football vs. Missouri State: TV, live stream, 3 keys to the game, prediction

CEDAR FALLS — It’s yet another must-win game Saturday for Northern Iowa as it returns to conference play at home against Missouri State.

Picked third in the Missouri Valley Football Conference preseason poll, Missouri State (2-4, 0-3) finished the 2021 season 8-4 overall and 6-2 in conference games, but bowed out of the FCS playoffs in the first round with a 32-31 home loss to Tennessee-Martin.

The Bears are coming off a 38-21 home loss to 17th-ranked Southern Illinois two weeks ago, but enter Saturday’s game coming off a bye week.

Missouri State is led by reigning MVFC Offensive Player of the Year Jason Shelley, who sits second behind UNI’s Theo Day in passing yards per game (261.8). Shelley also presents a threat with his legs, having run for 252 yards this season, but it’s come at the cost of 29 sacks allowed — nearly five per game.

Here are three keys for the Panthers (3-4, 2-2) against the Bears.

1. Zone-field advantage

Given Shelley’s talents, it seems safe to say that UNI will predominantly play zone coverage.

Playing zone against the senior signal caller will mitigate his ability to create big plays with his legs, but will heighten the importance for great technique and instincts from the Panthers defense.

Making an incorrect read or mistaking any of the play calls could be all Shelley needs to create a game-changing play. Simply doing the job asked of you and allowing your talent to take over is a simple, but undoubtedly effective approach.

2. Third-down dominance

UNI’s blowout win against Utah Tech last week included the Trailblazers going just 2 for 10 on third-down attempts.

Getting off the field on third and fourth down has proven to be critical to UNI’s ability to win games and against Utah Tech, a three-man front with consistent blitzes from the second level proved to be a good game plan. Can Mark Farley use a similar plan with effectiveness against the Bears? Or, was the Panthers’ success against Utah Tech on third down more to do with the Trailblazers’ woes than UNI’s progression?

3. Dialing long distance

Passing touchdowns of 44, 32 and 70 yards made for an impressive highlight reel after last week’s win and replicating those big plays moving forward seems more and more likely as Bodie Reeder’s and Ryan Clanton’s offense continues to develop.

Beyond the obvious positives of finding plays on the call sheet that create big moments, it also helps create more room for UNI running backs Dom Williams and Vance McShane to operate.

As evidenced in last week’s win, it’s important that — as dynamic as the Panthers passing game has been — its run game produces well enough to possess the ball at a level commensurate with complementary football to keep their defense fresh.

UNI vs. Missouri State

Kickoff time: 4 p.m. (CT)

TV: KCRG 9.2, NBC Sports Chicago+

Live stream: ESPN+

Prediction: Missouri State 23, UNI 20