UNI football vs. Missouri State 2023 game time, live stream, score prediction and analysis

CEDAR FALLS — Northern Iowa’s football team looks to lock up an FCS playoff bid at Missouri State on Saturday afternoon.

A seventh win for the Panthers (6-3, 5-1) — their sixth in the Missouri Valley Football Conference — would assure them an at-large bid to the 24-team playoff field.

UNI is 35-7 all-time against the Bears (3-6, 2-4) and 19-3 under Coach Mark Farley.

The Bears, coming off a 36-35 home loss to Illinois State last week, are led by a dynamic offense that ranks fifth in the MVFC in yards (404.4) and sixth in scoring (30.7). Quarterback Jacob Clark — who began the season as MSU’s starter — was lost in Week 5 in Missouri State’s 33-20 loss at Southern Illinois. Since Clark went down, Jordan Pachot has averaged 254.5 passing yards per game and thrown 10 touchdowns against just two interceptions.

Here are three keys to victory for the Panthers.

1. Stun the run

A large part of UNI’s defense getting back to its “standard” has been its ability to stop the run.

The Panthers rank second in the MVFC, allowing only 88.9 yards per game, and that dominance has created a number of obvious passing downs for opponents.

While the Bears’ passing game is formidable, putting their offense in obvious passing situations allows UNI’s pass rushers to focus on getting to the quarterback and also allows its defensive backs to be aggressive if the ball is in the air.

2. Two-headed monster

UNI running back Tye Edwards, who missed two games with an injury, looked to be back at 100 percent in last week’s 50-6 win against Western Illinois.

Edwards hit holes hard and ran 12 times against the Leathernecks last Saturday for 96 yards and a touchdown. Amauri Pesek-Hickson continued his recent hot streak, rushing 12 times for 73 yards and two touchdowns.

As the UNI defense has improved, Farley has noted more “complementary football” is being played by his team. Edwards following up his performance against WIU and proving he can be the other part of a two-headed monster in the Panthers backfield will only increase the ability to play “complementary football.”

3. Backup bump

Last Saturday’s lopsided win allowed for a number of UNI’s reserves to get increased snap counts.

Farley and defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson have both said it increased trust in some of their reserves, particularly on the defensive line.

A bump in pass rush production from backups would be a valuable development for the Panthers against a pass-first Missouri State team.

UNI at Missouri State (Nov. 11, 2023)

Kickoff time: 2 p.m. (CT)

Live stream: ESPN+

Prediction: UNI 34, Missouri State 24