MVFC 2023 preseason poll: Can UNI surpass SDSU and NDSU for the conference title?

CEDAR FALLS — The Missouri Valley Football Conference will announce its preseason poll voted on by reporters, sports information directors and radio and TV personnel on August 1.

Defending FCS champion South Dakota State is the heavy favorite to be atop the preseason poll with North Dakota State the likeliest to end up in the second spot. After those two is where the preseason prognostications begin in earnest.

Below is the where and why of my preseason MVFC poll.

1. South Dakota State

2022: 14-1, 8-0 MVFC

The Jackrabbits have their work cut out — on paper at least — to repeat as conference and national champions after the retirement of legendary coach John Stiegelmeier, and the subsequent departure of numerous staff members.

However, a number of key contributors to last year’s championship team return this season, headlined by quarterback Mark Gronowski and running back Isaiah Davis.

2. North Dakota State

2022: 12-3, 7-1 MVFC

NDSU returns Solon native Cam Miller at quarterback and its second-leading ball carrier in TaMerik Williams. On defense, Dubuque native Nick Kubitz’s ability to build upon a productive 2022 season after the graduations of top tacklers James Kaczor and Michael Tutsie will be important.

A regular-season finale in Cedar Falls against UNI could have large implications for how successful the Bison’s season ultimately becomes.

3. Northern Iowa

2022: 6-5, 5-3 MVFC

The offensive juggernaut UNI turned into last season wasn’t enough to overcome its slow start defensively. With longtime defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson back on staff and Pro Football Focus’ highest rated FCS quarterback in Theo Day back for his senior season, expectations are understandably higher than usual in Cedar Falls.

Six of Day’s top-eight receivers also return, as well as all four starters on the defensive line. However, question marks exist in the secondary and offensive line.

4. Southern Illinois

2022: 5-6, 4-4 MVFC

The return of quarterback Nic Baker along with eighth-year coach Nick Hill’s steady rebuild of the program gives the Salukis a puncher's chance to contend for a conference title.

Baker threw for 2,750 yards and 20 touchdowns last season while completing nearly 69 percent of his passes. He’s steadily developed into one of the best FCS quarterbacks. The return of wide receiver D’Ante Cox positions SIU as one of the MVFC’s best offenses headed into 2023.

5. North Dakota

2022: 7-5, 5-3 MVFC

Similar to Southern Illinois, the Fighting Hawks fall in the category of teams that have the talent to disrupt the SDSU and NDSU stranglehold on the MVFC. Quarterback Tommy Schuster was one of the FCS’ best in 2022, throwing for 2,730 yards and completing nearly 69 percent of his passes. Schuster’s favorite target in wide receiver Bo Belquist also returns.

UND’s defense has difference makers at all three levels with defensive lineman Ben McNaboe, linebacker Wyatt Pedigo and cornerback C.J. Siegel.

6. Illinois State

2022: 6-5, 4-4 MVFC

Coach Brock Spack’s Redbirds overcame a lack of impact talent with trademark stingy defense and sound special teams to reach six wins last season — which included a 23-21 win over UNI on the Panthers’ homecoming.

Spack’s penchant for finding a way to keep his team competitive cannot go overlooked, but questions remain. Is Minnesota transfer Zack Annexstad the answer at quarterback? Can redshirt sophomore Wenkers Wright take a big enough step in his development after rushing for 645 yards last season?

7. Youngstown State

2022: 7-4, 5-3 MVFC

The Penguins’ 2023 season will be defined by how they move forward without All-America running back Jaleel McLaughlin, who finished third in the FCS with 1,588 rushing yards in 2022.

Wide receiver Oliver Bryce will need to continue to prove himself as a playmaker, as will defensive end Dylan Wudke and safety Quincy Lenton if YSU is going to muster another top-third finish in the conference.

8. Missouri State

2022: 5-6, 3-5 MVFC

The honeymoon era with coach Bobby Petrino came to an end as the Bears suffered their first losing season since his arrival in 2020. Petrino has since bolted to Texas A&M to become Jimbo Fisher's offensive coordinator this offseason.

Quarterbacks Jacob Clark and Jordan Pachot will battle for the starting gig in fall camp and have big shoes to fill after Jason Shelley’s graduation. Plenty of question marks exist beyond quarterback, too, as Missouri State will hope to bounce back quickly after promoting defensive coordinator Ryan Beard to head coach.

9. South Dakota

2022: 3-8, 2-6 MVFC

Former Iowa State quarterback Aidan Bouman is the Coyotes’ only returning signal-caller with game experience. His 2022 results were pedestrian, throwing for 148.7 yards per game.

Leading rusher Travis Theis returns and will need to build on his 70.5 yards-per-game average this season as USD looks best built to combine a ball possession offense with a defense that has the chance to be stingy.

10. Indiana State

2022: 2-9, 1-7 MVFC

After losing its first four MVFC games by only a combined 24 points, the Sycamores’ only conference win came against winless Western Illinois.

No SDSU or NDSU on its 2023 schedule suggests Indiana State could potentially find its way back into the middle of the MVFC pack, but it’ll need a much higher level of production than Cade Chambers, Evan Olaes and Gavin Screws provided at quarterback in 2022.

11. Murray State

2022: 2-9, 1-4 Ohio Valley Conference

Hard to predict anything but a tough debut season for the Racers in the MVFC after a two-win season in the OVC in 2022.

Murray State’s offense was anemic and its defense porous a season ago — scoring 15.1 points per game while allowing 36.8.

The Racers’ inaugural conference schedule offers no relief with road trips to Missouri State, North Dakota State and Illinois State, while Western Illinois is absent from this season’s slate of games.

12. Western Illinois

2022: 0-11, 0-8 MVFC

A program mired in struggles bottomed out last season, going winless. Now, this season will be the last for the Leathernecks in the MVFC before joining the OVC.

Interestingly, former UNI backup quarterback Matt Morrissey transferred to WIU this offseason and, given the positive remarks from his former Panther coaches and teammates upon that transfer, it appears he may be capable of helping the Leathernecks find some success this season.