3 keys and a score prediction for UNI football against Iowa State

CEDAR FALLS — Northern Iowa opens its 2023 football season at Iowa State Saturday afternoon, the 34th meeting all-time between the two rivals.

UNI is 3-9 against the Cyclones in the Mark Farley era, with wins in 2007, ’13 and ’16. Meanwhile, the last two games in the series have been decided by a combined nine points.

Picked 10th in the Big 12 Conference’s preseason poll, Iowa State is coming off a disappointing 4-8 season, and a tumultuous offseason that had four players leave the team indefinitely or permanently due to the state’s gambling investigation.

Those departures have left Cyclones Coach Matt Campbell with unsettled quarterback and running back competitions entering week one. However, six starters return on Jon Heacock’s defense that led the Big 12 in total defense (285.6 ypg), rushing defense (107.3), passing defense (178.2) and scoring defense (20.2 points).

Here are three keys for the Panthers against Iowa State:

1. ‘Run for yards, throw for miles’

Second year offensive coordinator Bodie Reeder tweeted, “run for yards, throw for miles,” during UNI’s fall camp and anyone who watched his offense last season knows the tweet fits the play-caller to a T.

Reeder’s scheme helped Panthers quarterback Theo Day break out in 2022, earn first team All-Missouri Valley Football Conference honors and show up on the radar of NFL teams for the 2024 draft.

As explosive as UNI’s passing game will need to continue being against Iowa State, its run game cannot go overlooked, especially with a trio of new faces poised to shoulder the workload.

Four new starters on the offensive line and running backs Harrison Bey-Buie, Tye Edwards and Josh Jenkins must take pressure off Day’s shoulders to make an upset possible.

2. Return of the sack?

No apologies if Mark Morrison’s 1996 hit is now in your head. More importantly, if the Panthers are going to pull off an upset at Iowa State they’ll need to rediscover their pass rush and make life tougher than it already likely is for the Cyclones’ inexperienced quarterbacks.

UNI totaled just 17 sacks a season ago, its fewest since 2012. With defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson back on staff, and a requisite amount of line depth built this offseason via the transfer portal, position coach Bryce Paup seemingly has the personnel to get back to his uncanny ways of rotating those players on appropriate downs and distances to maximize their effectiveness.

3. Acute adjustments

Beyond personnel and their ability to execute, Farley made it clear this week the ability to adjust and do so quickly will be critical against the Cyclones.

With Iowa State having new quarterbacks, a new offensive coordinator in Nate Scheelhaase, former UNI offensive line coach Ryan Clanton now on its staff and new wide receivers and running backs coaches there’s more unfamiliarity than ever between the two teams.

Johnson’s return as the Panthers’ defensive play-caller ought to help UNI’s ability to adjust quickly, but easier said than done if Jack Trice Stadium is anywhere near its capacity crowd of 61,500.

Score prediction for UNI vs. Iowa State

UNI 27, Iowa State 21