WSJ political futures market shows Obama and Huckabee as Iowa winners

From Wall Street Journal:

As prediction-market traders have tried to make sense of these conflicting signals, they have upgraded Mr. Obama's chances of winning (he's now a better than 50-50 bet), while Ms. Clinton is a clear second-favorite, with a just-under one-in-three chance of winning. ...It looks like a fairly even race, although in recent hours, the markets have broken somewhat toward Mr. Huckabee. Even though the balance of probabilities rest about 60-40 (toward Mr. Huckabee), this is a fairly slender lead. The similarity of the prices on these two candidates may well reflect the uncertainty of forecasting the complexity inherent in the Iowa caucuses, rather than a view that the caucus totals will be close. ...

As prediction-market traders have tried to make sense of these conflicting signals, they have upgraded Mr. Obama's chances of winning (he's now a better than 50-50 bet), while Ms. Clinton is a clear second-favorite, with a just-under one-in-three chance of winning. ...

It looks like a fairly even race, although in recent hours, the markets have broken somewhat toward Mr. Huckabee. Even though the balance of probabilities rest about 60-40 (toward Mr. Huckabee), this is a fairly slender lead. The similarity of the prices on these two candidates may well reflect the uncertainty of forecasting the complexity inherent in the Iowa caucuses, rather than a view that the caucus totals will be close. ...