With Romney out, Iowa caucuses even more competitive

DES MOINES - Republican Mitt Romney's decision Friday to forego a 2016 presidential run further opens an already highly competitive race for the party's nomination in Iowa, according to GOP leaders and observers.

The decision by Romney, the party's unsuccessful 2012 presidential nominee, provides a sense of relief for GOP activists who were on hold, awaiting word so they'd know whether to join his campaign or seek another candidate to support or work for, said Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa.

'I think it opens things up,” said Kaufmann, who noted that Romney would have been considered the front-runner in 2016 if he had chosen to run again. 'I wouldn't say it reshapes things because I don't know that we had any shape to begin with. I really think this thing is wide open. It's going to be fascinating to watch.”

Kaufmann said the conventional political wisdom would point to Romney's decision not to run as helping former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. But he added that other GOP hopefuls with less name recognition, money and Iowa connections also would reap a benefit in a developing field.

'There's a vacuum there,” said the Iowa GOP leader. 'And, yes, Jeb Bush could fill that or Chris Christie, but you know what, I think a lesser-known candidate could also fill that void as well.”

Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa who closely tracks GOP politics, said Romney's departure helps other GOP establishment candidates like Bush and Christie but also aids business executive Carly Fiorina and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who have crossover appeal among Republican moderates and conservatives.

'They'll be more competition for that segment of the party,” said Hagle, who noted that the more immediate impact would be what Romney's exit means for prospective donors and GOP operatives who were largely taking a wait-and-see stance before throwing in with a 2016 campaign.

Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll who tracks presidential politics, said he believes the big winner Friday was Bush.

'It's a good day for Jeb Bush,” said Brown, who noted the race for the GOP nomination is a zero-sum game and Romney's decision leaves an opening for other more moderate candidates.

'This takes out a very large roadblock for Jeb Bush,” Brown said.

Christie was aided, too, but does not have the national Bush network and the 2016 head start that Bush has established, he said.

Kaufmann said he believes Friday's development makes it even more important for 2016 GOP prospects, Bush included, to spend lots of time in Iowa, do 'the full Grassley” in visiting all 99 Iowa counties and making their case to Iowa Republicans why they should be the party's presidential nominee.

'I'm probably seeing less solidifying around a candidate at this stage in the election than I have before,” he said. 'I think it's a lot more up for grabs. In my opinion, this makes the caucuses even more competitive.”

Kaufmann said he was not surprised by Romney's decision, saying the 2012 GOP nominee was the only 2016 prospect who had not reached out to Iowa GOP leaders.

'My gut was telling me he was not going to run,” he said. 'It's a fairly rare situation when the loser of a presidential race ends up running right away the next time. It would have been a unique situation in modern American politics.”