Why it’s tough to be a Republican in Johnson County

IOWA CITY — Next month, Johnson County voters will pare down the field of its Board of Supervisors candidates from six Democrats to three.

Candidates in the June 7 primary include incumbents Lisa Green-Douglass and Rod Sullivan and newcomers Kurt Friese, Patricia Heiden, Mike Hull and Jason Lewis.

There are no Republicans currently seeking one of the three open seats on the board, meaning Democrats on the November election ballot could potentially run unopposed.

In Johnson County, where registered Democrats outnumber their Republican neighbors two to one, this is not uncommon.

In fact, only a single Republican has sat on the five-member county board in more than five decades.

'It's tough to find candidates because it's very much an uphill climb to win in Johnson County and most candidates know that, so they just don't want to take on the challenge, especially against an incumbent,' said Tim Hagle, University of Iowa associate professor of political science. 'You just don't have Republicans that can win, or if they run they're going to be lucky to get 30 percent.'

By the numbers

Johnson County had a about 83,000 registered voters on Friday, according to data from the county Auditor's Office.

Of those voters, more than 40,000, or nearly 49 percent, were registered Democrats. A little more than 18,000, or about 22 percent were Republicans and another 24,000 — 29 percent — were registered as being affiliated with no party.

Bill Keettel, Johnson County Republican Party chairman, said those numbers make it difficult to find candidates willing to challenge the county's Democratic powerhouse.

'You have to be honest with the individual that you're asking to run for office, you have to explain what their real chances are,' Keettel said.

Of the six candidates on the June 7 primary, two were once themselves registered Republicans, according to voter-profile records provided by the Johnson County Auditor's Office.

According to records, Heiden registered as a Democrat in January and Hull officially joined the party in late March. Heiden shifted from Republican to No Party in late 2015, while Hull made a similar change in 2008, records show.

Candidate Lewis moved from No Party to Democrat in 2008, according to records.

County records don't indicate party changes for candidates Friese, Green-Douglass and Sullivan.

With the primary rapidly approaching, Keettel said he can't rule out a Republican on the November ballot just yet — a nominee still can be selected through August via convention. That decision could hinge on which Democrats receive party nods in June, he said.

'The answer depends on factors not yet known to me,' Keettel said. 'I would be very foolish not to look at the results of the primary.'

A rare Republican victory

In the past 50 years, a lone Republican has served on the Johnson County Board of Supervisors — John Etheredge, who won a partial term during a March 2013 special election.

County Auditor Travis Weipert said Etheredge's successful campaign, low voter turnout due to a snowstorm and poor campaigning by the Democrats all played a role in the GOP victory.

'There was just a lot of breakdown on the Democratic Party that day, (and) it shows that there's so many factors that go into this,' Weipert said. 'You don't want to say it was a perfect storm, but it was.'

Etheredge beat Democrat Terry Dahms by fewer than 200 votes and became the first Republican elected to the county board since 1958.

'I think you would find that the Democrats did not really believe a Republican could win, even in a special election,' Keettel recalled.

But the victory was short lived, and in the 2014 general election incumbent Janelle Rettig held on to her seat while Mike Carberry replaced Etheredge on the board, returning it to an all-Democrat makeup.

Striving for parity

Keettel and Hagle said it's difficult to pinpoint the root of Johnson County's liberal atmosphere.

Keettel said the UI's often idealistic student base and large number of public sector employees traditionally lean to the left. But he added those ideals are strong countywide.

'I see no real big difference between the university sentiment and community sentiment,' Keettel said.

By contrast, Story County, the home of Iowa State University and nearly 60,000 registered voters, has a much more even distribution between parties.

The county this year has about 19,600 Republicans, more than 21,000 Democrats and a little less than 23,000 no-party residents.

'We're very purple here in Story County,' County Auditor Lucy Martin said.

Martin, who's been with the county for 12 years, said it's rare to have an uncontested race.

'It would be really strange for Story County to field a ballot that looked like that,' Martin said.

Meanwhile, Johnson County Board of Supervisors races have fielded Republican candidates in just two general elections since 2006. There were two No Party candidates on the 2012 general election ballot, but the Democrats easily swept that vote.

Keettel remains steadfast in his charge to even the playing field in Johnson County, but he fully acknowledged the size of that task.

'We have a lot of work to do to bring the Republican Party toward parity in Johnson County,' he said. 'It's going to take a long time.'

When asked how parity can be achieved, Keettel said it comes down to grass-roots efforts.

'One voter at a time,' he said.