Voter data shows how Ernst beat Braley

DES MOINES — One can find any number of reasons to explain Joni Ernst's victory over Bruce Braley in the race for Iowa's open seat in the U.S. Senate.

Some will include the damaging video that showed Braley disparaging Iowa's other U.S. senator, Chuck Grassley. Others will note Ernst's popular campaign ads.

Explanations also can be made by the voters themselves in the form of results and exit-polling data.

Here are five key pieces of voter data that help explain how Ernst, a Republican state senator from Red Oak, defeated Braley, a U.S. House member from Waterloo, by 8.5 percentage points:

NO HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE FOR BRALEY

Ernst actually fared better than Braley in the 20-county northeast district he represents in the U.S. House. Ernst edged Braley on his home turf, 48.4 percent to 47.7 percent, according to results published by the Iowa Secretary of State's office.

Although Braley has served northeast Iowa in the U.S. House since 2007, the district's current makeup has been in place only the past two years after redistricting.

Braley also failed to sufficiently distance himself from Ernst in normal Democratic strongholds: Dubuque (50.7 percent to 45.3 percent) and Polk (50.3 percent to 46.0 percent) counties, for example.

THE WAR FOR — NOT ON — WOMEN

Much was made on the campaign trail about a supposed 'war on women.' Braley championed women's health care choices while criticizing Ernst for sponsoring a resolution that expressed support in an amendment to the state Constitution which would have defined life as beginning at conception.

More important was the war for women voters. Polls suggested Braley was well ahead of Ernst among female voters in Iowa, while Ernst secured a vast majority of male voters. But according to CNN's exit-poll data, women actually split down the middle of the two candidates at 49 percent apiece.

Ernst did dominate among male voters, 58 percent to 40 percent, according to CNN's data.

BRALEY'S PLAY FOR SENIORS FAILS

Throughout his campaign, Braley hammered on his promise to preserve Social Security and Medicare benefits and tried to label Ernst's positions as a threat to those programs.

That message apparently did not resonate with Iowa seniors. Of Iowa voters ages 65 and older, 58 percent voted for Ernst compared to 40 percent for Braley, according to CNN.

'IOWA WAY' VS. WASHINGTON

In the campaign's final weeks, Ernst hammered on taking 'Iowa values' and 'the Iowa way' to Washington, D.C., and tied Braley, a four-term U.S. House member, to the ills of the federal government.

Here's why she did that: Three of five Iowa voters said they were either 'dissatisfied' or 'angry' with President Barack Obama's administration, according to CNN's exit polling. Of those voters, nearly four of five voted for Ernst.

Braley got nine of 10 voters who said they were 'satisfied' with or 'enthusiastic' about the administration, but that group accounted for only 36 percent of Iowa voters, according to CNN.

BRALEY OUTVOTED BY DOWN-TICKET CANDIDATE

Surprisingly, more votes were cast for Democratic Secretary of State candidate Brad Anderson (503,962) than Braley (489,250). Anderson also lost; Republican Paul Pate received 525,237 votes to return to the Secretary of State's office after leaving the post 16 years ago.

TURNOUT

Turnout for Iowa's midterm election was 52.3 percent, down just slightly from the 2010 midterm election, according to the Iowa Secretary of State Office.

The 2014 figures are unofficial; county auditors will begin canvassing the results next week.

A total of 1,130,170 ballots were cast this year. Once again, that is just slightly down from the 2010 state record of 1,133,434. Turnout in 2010 was 53.6 percent.