State health official predicts more to come for Iowa's flu season

Iowa's flu season has been slow so far, but the state isn't out of the woods yet.

“It's unpredictable from year to year,” said Dr. Ann Garvey, deputy state epidemiologist, “but I think we'll see cases increase as we move through this month.”

Mild temperatures can play a role in the number of cases, Garvey said, because people tend to stay indoors in close quarters during colder weather, making it easier for viruses to spread.

Scientific studies, however, have not proven how viruses behave differently in warm weather, she said.

Garvey said Iowa and the rest of the country typically see flu cases peak in February.

Tracking performed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 1976 through 2011 shows flu activity most often peaked in February throughout the United States. Flu numbers were highest in February in 16 seasons, or 46 percent of the time, in the last 35 years.

Flu is not a reportable disease in Iowa, so surveillance sites, such as schools and doctors' offices, are used to estimate the activity level.

The flu is a respiratory illness that comes on suddenly. Symptoms include fever, headache, tiredness, cough, sore throat, nasal congestion and body aches.

Most states, including Iowa, had only sporadic cases as of late January, though activity is higher in a line of states through the country's midsection, including Missouri.

Garvey said the number of people vaccinated against the flu also plays a role in the number of cases. Three flu strains have been circulating in Iowa, she said, but this season's vaccine matches all three.

Garvey encouraged anyone who hasn't had a flu shot to get one.

“There's still time,” she said. “We could see cases through March.”