Spring flood outlook higher than normal

The risk of the Cedar River flooding here this spring is 33 percent greater than normal, according to the first spring flood outlook released Friday by the National Weather Service.

The liquid content of the snowpack and elevated river and soil moisture levels are the chief factors contributing to the increased risk of spring flooding, said meteorologist Tom Philip.

The National Weather Service models are based on a normal snowmelt.

“A slow, gradual snowmelt without much rain during the process would be the ideal situation,” Philip said.

For the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids, the report projects a 50 percent greater than normal chance of minor flooding, a 29 percent greater than normal chance of moderate flooding and a 16 percent greater than normal chance of major flooding. The comparable percentages in February 2008, just months before a record Cedar River crest swamped Cedar Rapids, were 43, 24 and 13.

For the Iowa River, there is a 36 percent greater than normal chance of flooding at Marengo, a 14 percent greater than normal chance at Iowa City and a 44 percent greater than normal chance at Columbus Junction.

Flooding risk on the Wapsipinicon ranges from near normal at Independence to 14 percent above normal at Anamosa and 29 percent above normal at De Witt.

Along the Mississippi, the risk of flooding ranges from near normal at Bellevue to 27 percent above normal at Burlington, the report said.

“Naturally, we all worry about another flood like 2008 or 1993, but we need to remember that the floods in those years resulted from a combination of environmental conditions and weather factors that came together at the right time - a more complex arrangement than can be predicted with these outlook models,” said KCRG-TV9 meteorologist Joe Winters.

“The bottom line is that we need to keep an eye on the data and be aware and prepared for the possibilities.”

The Weather Service's next flood outlook comes Feb. 19.