Sanders crowds show Iowa Democrats’ passion, not necessarily support

DES MOINES - The crowds Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is drawing at campaign stops are a sign of Iowa Democrats' passion for the issues he's talking about, but don't mean former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's 2016 precinct caucus campaign is in trouble.

'You can never go wrong being the most liberal candidate” in the Iowa Democratic caucus campaign, longtime Democratic strategist Joe Shanahan said Tuesday.

However, it's often the establishment candidates who come out on top at the caucuses, he told news reporters from across the country at a Poynter Institute workshop on covering the caucuses at Drake University. He cited the example of Howard Dean, a Vermont governor who took the 2004 caucus campaign by storm, but finished a distant third to John Kerry.

Shanahan, whose campaign experience stretches back to early Sen. Tom Harkin campaigns, expects many Democrats to vote their consciences on issues like income inequality, peace and health care.

Republican caucusgoers also are likely to vote their consciences at the February caucuses, added Tim Albrecht of Redwave Digital in Des Moines.

He cautioned reporters against handicapping the caucus race by who can win because activists often cast a 'conscience-clearing vote” for the candidate who most closely aligns with their beliefs 'even if they can't win.”

Albrecht and Chuck Larson Jr., Shanahan's partner at LS2 Group, predicted that Iowa Republicans will quickly get behind the party's nominee because the GOP base is so hungry for victory.

'We want victory. We want to change the course of the country,” Larson said. 'We will see a highly motivated and united GOP.”

Democrats' response to Sanders doesn't mean Democrats will be divided when they have a nominee, said Brad Anderson, who ran Barack Obama's campaigns in Iowa.

He's been 'genuinely surprised” by the size of Sanders' crowds in Iowa - 700 in Des Moines and Davenport and 500 in Iowa City - and attributes that to Sanders addressing Iowa Democrats' top three issues - 'income inequality, income inequality and income inequality.”

Anderson doubts Sanders was able to capitalize on those audiences because he didn't have enough staff to capture names, addresses and phone numbers of the people who attend rallies.

In the end, he predicted that the enthusiasm Sanders is generating will help the party.

'Everyone in thankful for the excitement Bernie Sanders brings,” said Anderson, who works for Link Strategies, a Des Moines-based campaign consulting firm. 'It will make Clinton a stronger candidate.”