Recent weather reminiscent of June 2008

Weather conditions are reminiscent of those that prevailed two years ago when heavy rains swelled nine Iowa rivers to record heights, meteorologist John Haase with the National Weather Service in Davenport said Monday.

The soil is saturated, many rivers are at or near flood stage and another stalled front portends frequent and possibly heavy rains, Haase said.

“The next few days will be critical. If we can get through them with no widespread, heavy rains, we'll have a chance to dry out starting Thursday,” he said.

The major differences between this year and 2008, he said, are that the heaviest rains have been confined to smaller areas and that most of them have been downstream of Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, rather than upstream as they were in 2008.

Rainfall has averaged 7.08 inches statewide through the first 21 days of June, which compares with 7.41 inches through the comparable portion of June 2008, according to State Climatologist Harry Hillaker.

While this June has been nearly as wet as its 2008 counterpart, it has also been much warmer – 3.6 degrees above normal, compared with 3.1 degrees below normal in 2008, Hillaker said.

“That makes quite a big difference in the evaporation rate and the rate plants use water,” he said.

Craig Hanson, who coordinates flood management for the Cedar Rapids Public Works Department, said he is more worried about flash flooding on Indian, Prairie and other area creeks than he is about the Cedar River, which was about 2.5 feet below flood stage Monday afternoon in Cedar Rapids.

Noting another difference between 2008 and this year, Hanson said Iowa corn and soybean crops are much more fully developed and able to absorb more water than they were two years ago.

“But if we get 3 to 4 inches all at once, we will have problems,” Hanson said.

Iowa City City Engineer Ron Knoche said this month has been “fairly reminiscent” of June 2008.

“I wouldn't say I'm nervous, but we are definitely keeping a close eye on the forecast,” Knoche said.

The elevation level at Coralville Lake, a flood control reservoir just north of Iowa City, stood at 696.5 feet Monday, well below the 712 feet at which water flows over the spillway, as it did in 2008 and 1993.

John Castle, Corps operations manager at the lake, said it had reached about a third of its storage capacity as of Monday. The lake is predicted to be at 701 feet by the end of the week, which would put it at 47 percent of its capacity, he said.

The good news, Hillaker said, is that, beyond Wednesday, the forecast calls for warmer and drier than normal weather through the Fourth of July.