Political scientists see Branstad in strong position for re-election

JOHNSTON - It might be hard to tell from the campaign ads already beginning to fill the airways, but the lack of movement in Iowa gubernatorial polls may be because the race isn't fully formed.

'Some of these races are not fully developed yet,” Loras College politics professor Christopher Budzisz said Friday during the taping of Iowa Press. 'So, sometimes it's that the bright lines that will be in stark contrast that will be made during a campaign ... (haven't) occurred yet.”

It's also possible the lack of movement in polls of those races is due to the fact outside groups haven't begun to invest heavily in the Iowa races, to 'move the meter, so to speak,” according to Budzisz, who directs the Loras College Poll.

Budzisz, Dianne Bystrom, director of Iowa State University Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics, and Chris Larimer, associate professor of political science at the University of Northern Iowa, discussed polling and politics on the show which will air Friday on IPTV at 7:30 p.m. and noon on Sunday, and at 8:30 a.m. Saturday on IPTV World. It's available beginning Friday night at www.iptv.org.

Quinnipiac University Polls beginning in 2013 have shown fifth-term GOP Gov. Terry Branstad has lost ground, dropping from 49 percent in 2013 to 47 percent this week in head-to-head match-ups with Democratic Sen. Jack Hatch. Hatch's numbers have risen from 33 percent to 38 percent.

'Branstad fatigue” may be a factor, Bystrom said.

'He has very high approval ratings but there's also a significant number of people who think that he has been in office for too long,” she said. 'I think that is bringing his numbers down a little bit. But still he is ahead and he's ahead by a good margin.”

Despite the lack of improvement in Branstad's numbers against an opponent who is struggling to raise money and is relatively unknown by 64 percent of registered voters, Larimer thinks the governor is in pretty good shape.

Research, Larimer said, indicates the 'relative unemployment rate,” that is the federal unemployment rate, the state unemployment rate and the difference between them, is a key indicator of a governor's chances of getting re-elected.

In Iowa, he said, the unemployment rate has been about 2 percentage points lower than the federal rate.

Also, Branstad's approval ratings in about two dozen polls have been trending upward toward 50 to 55 percent, Larimer said.

That, plus a good state economy and a 9-point lead 'bodes well for him,” Larimer said about Branstad. 'Even though it's sort of a static lead ... the research would suggest he is in a very strong position. Most people know who he is and all the economic factors are going in his favor.”

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