On Topic: The big story

I could be seriously wrong about this, but I'd put down money that one of the biggest stories of the 2010s will be a business story - oil.

Not just for those of us delighted Eastern Iowans at the gas pump but also for much of the rest of the country and planet - for, among others, the scorched-earth politicos of Washington, D.C.; the anguished energy ministers in Doha, Dubai, Riyadh, Tehran and Caracas; and the discomforted - we hope - chief decision-maker in Moscow.

The significance of this story lies in both its still-unfolding and wide-sprawling effects as well as its colorful, tortured pedigree.

Back in a March column, I suggested the quarrels in Ukraine brewing then could be viewed as a much a business story as one of war and unrest.

In short, Russia wanted the former USSR satellite to trade with it. But Ukraine's new government - after President Viktor Yanukovych bolted for the hills - was determined to join the European Union.

To encourage Ukrainians to see his offer in a different light, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who fears NATO on his doorstep, moved tanks and troops into Crimea. Western nations in response imposed sanctions.

Those measures put a clamp on much of Russia's chief export, oil, among other actions, and have pushed Russia's central bank to estimate that nation's economy will wither by 4.5 percent this year. That's a big number.

Putin, for his part, is nothing if not a long-game player. Indeed, he uses these 'provocations” to remind his countrymen why they should stand behind his iron leadership.

Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have flooded the oil market, driving down the price. Using up the 'surplus” could take years, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei has said.

OPEC hasn't liked Russia's share of the business. Plus - in case you mistook their actions as solidarity with American interests - it wants to hobble the rise of U.S. shale drilling.

Why bother investing in shale when barrels of oil are so cheap, right?

Look at it this way: It's as if all competing interests are poking at the principle of supply and demand with long sticks, hoping to entice the frog to jump in their preferred direction.

The repercussions of all these shenanigans are banging around, for good or ill, pretty much everywhere. Consider just a few wide-ranging items:

l We get cheap fill-ups - By mid-December, the cost of gas at the pump fell below $2 in Eastern Iowa and elsewhere in the country - something almost unthinkable a short time ago.

l The U.S. energy industry clenches its teeth - Due to the massive drop in oil prices, Texas's economy, for example, which boomed at 4.4 percent each year between 2009 to 2013, according to the Wall Street Journal, is now bracing for what could be a roller-coaster-like plunge.

That would affect everything from jobs and the housing market even to the presidential aspirations of Gov. Rick Perry, who campaigned last time out in part by pointing to the Lone Star state's robust times.

So while today's cheap gas might be great for some states, it's dreadful for others, including Texas, that rely on oil production, according to calculations by University of Nevada, Las Vegas economist Stephen P.A. Brown. He came up with his findings for a think tank called Resources for the Future. (You can see his report at www.rff.org.)

l Carl Icahn gets the jitters - As oil prices worldwide continue to slide, corporations and investors of all shapes and sizes take a hit. Icahn Associates, as large an investor as one could dream to be, lost more than $300 million on its holdings in a Canadian energy company before it sold off its shares, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Some days major stock markets continue bounce like a rattling tin can being kicked along a rotten stretch of road, colliding with each rock, rut and curb.

l Energy job cuts - BP and others have announced reductions. As Ed Davey, the United Kingdom's energy secretary admitted to the Financial Times this past Thursday, 'The recent sharp reductions in oil prices are very challenging for companies active in the North Sea ...

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And then, after all, we should keep this in mind: What goes down must come up.

Oil prices will gain altitude again. Some pine for that day. But among others who won't be happy could include all those folk who've rushed out to buy trucks rather than more-fuel-efficient automobiles - not unlike the many who opted for gas-hog SUVs during the last low-pump-price period.

Ward's Automotive Group notes that trucks outsold car sales in December by the most since 2005.

On a broader scale, recovering oil prices will flip the balance on those happy-unhappy states, pull down on the U.S. economy's growth and strengthen Putin's global resolve.

In addition, it would set in motion who knows what other unforeseen developments, foreign and domestic.

Brace yourselves. This story is far from finished.

l Michael Chevy Castranova is enterprise editor and Sunday business editor of The Gazette. (319) 398-5873; michael.castranova@thegazette.com