Long-term effects of bird flu still uncertain

DES MOINES — Iowa produces more eggs than any state in the country, and is ninth nationally in turkey production.

But both industries are being rocked by a relentless virus that is forcing farmers to destroy entire flocks. A highly pathogenic avian influenza — or bird flu — believed to be introduced by wild waterfowl such as ducks and geese has infected dozens of Iowa farms, causing the death and disposal of up to 21 million birds.

While some farmers cope with devastating losses, others are taking every precaution possible to prevent the disease's spread, knowing full well it all could be in vain.

Through Friday there have been 44 cases, most of them in northwest Iowa. More are discovered almost daily, and a federal official said he thinks another round will hit in the fall when migratory birds return to the region.

Despite the massive impact on Iowa's turkey and poultry populations, prices at the grocery store are unlikely to change drastically, according to an economist at Iowa State University who specializes in agriculture.

Lee Schulz, an economics professor at Iowa State, said grocery-store prices tend to be 'sticky' so as to not erode customer loyalty. So consumers should not have to worry about sudden price spikes on eggs or turkey.

'Looking in the short-term, those prices don't change very much,' Schulz said.

But the bird losses are sure to have some kind of effects eventually, Schulz said. To what degree, he said, is difficult to ascertain while new cases are being discovered almost daily.

Schulz said the losses could affect the supply of turkeys and eggs for exports; it could affect the demand for those products if trade partners ban them while the virus is present; it could affect the state's economy as farm operations and tangential businesses may have to lay off workers; and general uncertainty could have negative effects on the market.

'It's too early to put a quantitative number to it. I haven't seen any studies yet that have projected that cost,' Schulz said. 'It's all speculation because this still is evolving.'

Similarly, it is difficult to put a price in the fiscal impact farmers will face.

There is a federal program that provides financial assistance to farmers who have to put down birds to prevent the disease's spread.

The program provides assistance only for birds that are proactively and properly destroyed; it does not compensate farmers for birds that already have died from the virus.

Randy Olson, executive director of the Iowa Poultry Association, said that because farmers have been so proactive since first hearing of the virus' spread in other states, most have identified it before suffering large losses.

'These farmers have very extensive testing protocols, and these farmers are in their barns every day. So they see signs on the early end of this timeline. I've understood that these farmers have generally noticed signs (of infection) before massive death loss,' Olson said. 'It's really important that they catch this early.'

The impact will not be felt only on poultry and turkey farms, Olson said. He said there will be tangential effects. For example, with roughly a third of the state's egg-laying hens wiped out by the virus, there are fewer birds eating corn and soybean meal.

'So this disease, which has a devastating impact to the individual egg farmers, also has detrimental effects on grain and oil seed demand,' Olson said.

In Minnesota, Jennie-O Turkey Store said this week it will lay off 233 employees at a processing plant because of bird flu outbreaks that have cut its turkey supply, the Associated Press reported.

Northey said the state is doing everything it can to help farmers minimize their losses. He praised the cooperative efforts of not only the different levels of government, but the varied departments within those levels. For example, the state departments of agriculture, homeland security, public health, natural resources, human services, transportation and public safety all have worked in some fashion on the outbreak.

Olson said he expects farmers will rebound. In the meantime, he suggested Iowans can show their support at the breakfast table.

'Everyone,' Olson said, 'should add an additional egg for breakfast to join in a sign of solidarity with the egg farmers that are going through a very tough time.'

Where flu has struck

Infected operations by county:

Buena Vista: 12

Sioux: 9

Cherokee: 5

O'Brien: 3

Osceola: 3

Wright: 3

Sac: 3

Pocahontas: 2

Clay: 1

Kossuth: 1

Madison: 1

Palo Alto: 1

Avian influenza by the numbers:

16.5 billion: Eggs produced annually in Iowa, the most in the nation

59.5 million: Egg-laying chickens raised in Iowa

11 million: Turkeys raised annually in Iowa, ninth-most in the nation

20 million-plus: Total number of birds affected by the recent bird flu outbreak

5.7 million: Largest number of birds affected on a single farm

44: Iowa farms with confirmed or suspected cases

12: Most number of cases in one county, Buena Vista County

Sources: Iowa Department of Agriculture