Iowa’s winter could be no worse than normal

The government's newly released winter forecast says much of the northern United States could be in for a colder and snowier time than usual, but not necessarily Iowa.

Because of a moderate to strong La Nina, the forecast calls for a colder and wetter than average in the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest. It calls for warmer and drier conditions than average in the southwest and southern plains, and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Iowa's not in any of those regions. It's in the Central region, for which the forecast predicts an equal chance that temperatures and precipitation will be above or below normal.

The winter forecast was released on Thursday by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.

Iowa State Climatologist Harry Hillaker has read the forecast, but doesn't agree entirely. Hillaker said he'd go with somewhat wetter and colder conditions than usual, particularly for Eastern Iowa.

“They're hedging us a little on the warmer side, but I would push us more on the cooler side,” Hillaker said, adding that he'd also expect a bit more precipitation than usual.

Hillaker noted that the Iowa has had four consecutive wetter-than-average winters and three of the last four winters were colder than average. He noted that extremely heavy snowfalls across Iowa three winters ago were in a El Nina year.

An El Nina pattern is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is the opposite of the El Nino weather pattern, which is associated with warmer than normal water temperatures.

An El Nino pattern last year brought extrely heavy rain and snowfall that led to severe flooding in parts of the United States, NOAA officials noted in announcing the forecast. Even though this year's El Nina pattern is the opposite, it can still bring weather extremes.