Iowa Democrats see Branstad vetoes as key to House majority

CEDAR RAPIDS — Iowa Democrats believe they have found a silver lining behind Gov. Terry Branstad's veto of key parts of a bipartisan funding plan for kindergarten-through-grade-12 schools, regents' universities and to keep open two state mental health institutes.

Although Branstad won't be on the ballot in 2016, the Iowa Democratic Party (IDP) says it is 'obvious that Iowans are sick and tired of Branstad's irresponsible 'my way or the highway' approach to governing' and will take out their frustrations on Republican House incumbents.

'This is a good opportunity for us to take back the majority' for the first time since 2010, said House Minority Leader Mark Smith, D-Marshalltown.

Branstad's vetoes and House Republicans' refusal to override them may provide an opportunity. But Iowa State University political science professor Steffen Schmidt said regaining control of the House 'depends on whether Democrats can get their (stuff) together. In recent elections they have been unorganized and fielded losing candidates.'

The IDP memo titled, 'Branstad's Vetoes Will Haunt State House Republicans in 2016,' seems 'more about shaping the dynamics of the next (session) and less about shaping the dynamics of the next election,' said Cary Covington, associate professor of political science at University of Iowa.

Drake University political science professor Dennis Goldford called it an example of the Peter Pan principle: 'If you wish for something hard enough, it will become true.'

'Instead of trumpeting a state of affairs that already exists, they're attempting to create a state of affairs by trumpeting it' — a tactic both parties employ, according to Goldford.

It's more than wishful thinking, according to the IDP. Democratic-leaning polling firm Public Policy Polling, based in Raleigh, N.C., found majorities of Iowa voters disagree with Branstad's vetoes of $56 million in one-time money for K-12 schools and a plan to maintain mental health services at the Mount Pleasant and Clarinda mental health institutes.

Also, 49 percent disapprove his veto of university funding.

Fading memory?

Even before that poll was conducted, all 69 Democratic legislators signed a petition for a special session to override Branstad's vetoes. Two-thirds of the 150 senators and representatives were needed.

Republicans 'blindly stood behind Gov. Branstad's vetoes,' the IDP said.

'As a result of their silence and refusal to put the interests of Iowa families first, legislative Republicans own Branstad's vetoes as much as Terry Branstad does,' according to the IDP. 'Iowans will remember the GOP vetoes in November 2016.'

Not only is that election 14 months away, but there will be a legislative session before then, which 'will make it difficult to keep these vetoes at the forefront of voters' minds,' said Chris Larimer, associate professor of political science at University of Northern Iowa.

If the 2016 session is a repeat of 2015, the IDP may be right, Larimer said, but if the Legislature approves a more generous school funding plan 'memory of the vetoes will fade.'

It might be a repeat, Smith said, because newly elected House Speaker Linda Upmeyer, R-Clear Lake, and Majority Leader Chris Hagenow, R-Windsor Heights were part of negotiations with the governor, but didn't support a special session to override his veto.

'I think there will be more fodder for (voters) being angry about these things,' he said.

Even if that's the case, Goldford pointed out that in any given House election here are as many as a quarter of the 100 seats that are not contested, and even contested seats are not necessarily competitive.

'No disrespect to hardworking candidates,' Goldford said, 'I see such races as analogous to high school student-council races — you get all your friends and relatives to vote for you.'

Generally, Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, would agree legislative elections are 'about local issues and the quality of your candidates.'

However, he said, 'the real local issue here is that not a single House Republican who voted for one-time funding for K-12 education was willing to stand by their vote to override the governor's veto.'

Schmidt doubted many Iowans are as interested as Smith, Gronstal and the IDP in the legislative process and the balance of power between the executive and legislative branches.

'There is no energy for special sessions, especially because voters don't understand any of this,' he said. 'Go to the mall and ask 100 people about these issues and 99.5 will say, 'Huh?' I think it's a moot issue.'