Flu cases predicted to jump in Iowa

Flu could be hitting Iowa hard and heavy in the coming weeks.

“We're not even close to the peak,” state epidemiologist Dr. Patricia Quinlisk said Thursday.

With more schools reporting greater absenteeism due to illness, Quinlisk predicted that peak to hit in three to four weeks.

“We're going to see a lot more activity,” she said.

This season is on a more typical timeline than last season, Quinlisk noted.

Last season, the H1N1 virus was already widespread – the highest level of flu activity – by October 2009.

Flu cases then tapered off by December of that year.

This season, there were few cases until November, although Iowa had some reports of flu late in the summer.

Quinlisk said the biggest difference this season is having three separate strains in circulation at the same time: an influenza A (H3N2) virus, an influenza B virus and the 2009 H1N1 virus.

“That, I've just never seen before,” she said.

Children are still getting hit hardest by the H1N1 virus, Quinlisk said, with the A strain mostly affecting the elderly and the B virus affecting “any age.”

With three strains circulating, a person could get the flu three times in a single season.

In fact, having one strain of flu could suppress the immune system to make a person susceptible to becoming more ill.

“They don't give you any protection at all” from other strains, Quinlisk said.

Iowa typically has 1,000 to 2,000 deaths attributed to influenza per year.

Officially, 41 Iowans died and 575 were hospitalized during the H1N1 pandemic.

Quinlisk said the difference was that H1N1 spared the state's elderly population. That group is more prone to pneumonia, kidney failure and other secondary conditions triggered by the flu.

She said there is still time to get a flu shot. This season's vaccine has been a good match to all three strains in circulation.