Fact Checker: Checking in on Jeb Bush’s record on job creation

Introduction

'As governor, he helped create 1.3 million new jobs. He vetoed billions in government spending. He cut taxes $19 billion, balanced eight budgets and shrank state government. He took on unions and won with new accountability and over 200 new charter schools. The state was Florida, the governor was Jeb Bush.'

Source of claim: The claims were made in a TV spot — which began airing in Iowa Sept. 15 — funded by Right to Rise, the super PAC supporting former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's presidential bid.

Analysis

Messages to Right to Rise were not returned. But the TV spot cites the sources it used to make each claim.

Because of the number of claims covering Bush's eight-year tenure — he first was elected in 1998 — we'll analyze those that are most measurable.

• 'He helped create 1.3 million new jobs.'

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that Florida's labor force grew from about 7.6 million in 1999 to more than 9.1 million in 2006, making for an increase of roughly 1.5 million. The unemployment rate started at 4 percent in 1999, peaked at 6 percent in 2002 and dropped to 3.4 percent in 2006.

Tacking on five years to each end of Bush's two terms as governor show that the unemployment rate was dropping for years before he took office. After his departure, it began to grow considerably, as it did in much of the nation.

While the number of employed Floridians climbed under his tenure, so did the state's population and the nation's housing boom. It's impossible to measure how much Bush helped that growth, but it did occur.

• 'He cut taxes $19 billion.'

This one is more difficult to check. Right to Rise points toward the Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research as its source, but little information is available on how it reached that number.

A non-profit group has looked into the revenue effect of Bush's tax cuts during his two terms.

According to an April economic analysis by Martin Sullivan with Tax Analysts, a 45-year-old organization dedicated to tax news and analysis, Florida revenue estimates show that legislation passed in 1999 and 2000 — Bush's most aggressive years for tax cutting — reduced state revenue by almost $1.5 billion.

According to the report, which used revenue estimates published by the Florida Legislature and provided by the state's Office of Economic and Demographic Research, much of Bush's first two years of tax cutting included reductions in property taxes, the state tax on intangible assets and the state unemployment tax.

Tax Analysts estimates the revenue reduction during Bush's terms to be $13.04 billion, compared with $19.3 billion touted in the ad.

This is not an exact science, however, as the report's estimates on state revenue count only the first two years after legislation is enacted, and its figures are not adjusted for inflation.

Additionally, estimates do not include revenue adjustments for the phaseout of the federal tax credit for state estate taxes, which began in 2002 and was eliminated in 2005.

The report indicates the federal phaseout reduced Florida revenue by about $800 million per year, which could help explain the gap between $13.04 billion and Right to Rise's $19.3 billion. Because the estate tax cut was a federal mandate, Bush can't take credit for its effects.

Many things can affect state revenue beyond tax receipts, including grants, fees and lottery proceeds. The report does not distinguish between tax and nontax revenues.

• 'and balanced eight budgets'

Florida, like many states, is required by its Constitution to operate on a balanced budget, with revenues collected sufficient to meet appropriations, preventing any deficit, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

It technically is accurate to say Bush signed off on eight balanced budgets, but that was required.

• 'and shrank state government'

According to annual reports from the Florida Department of Management Services, established state positions dropped from 172,069 in 1999 to 171,333 in June 2007, marking a drop of 736 positions. Remove the growth in state university employees — which the governor does not oversee — over those eight years, and the number of state jobs actually dropped by nearly 8,600 positions.

• 'over 200 new charter schools'

Florida's charter school program began in 1996 with five schools, according to the Florida Department of Education.

There were 118 charter schools operating in the state when Bush took office. Eight years later, there were 334, making for a growth of 216. While the report does not give the number that closed, the final number provided indicates the total number of schools operating for any given year.

Conclusion

Most of the claims that were measured by Fact Checker are largely factual. But an analysis of Bush's tax cuts shows Right to Rise overstated his impact.

When all claims measured are considered, we give a B for accuracy.

The Fact Checker team checks statements made by an Iowa political candidate/office holder or a national candidate/office holder about Iowa, or in advertisements that appear in our market. Claims must be independently verifiable. We give statements grades from A to F based on accuracy and context. If you spot a claim you think needs checking, email us at factchecker@sourcemedia.net.

This Fact Checker was researched and written by Mitchell Schmidt.