Do House Democrats have a shot at the majority, including Iowa’s 1st District?

WASHINGTON - The past few elections have been a disaster for House Democrats. Their majority at the beginning of Barack Obama's presidency is a distant memory and, conventional wisdom has it, is unlikely to return this decade.

The last time Republicans held a bigger majority in the House, Babe Ruth was playing for the Yankees.

But Democrats are hoping this year will be the year they turn things around. Of the 10 seats most likely to change hands in November, they've got a shot at a minimum of seven - including Iowa's 1st District seat held by Republican Rod Blum. They could even pick up three or four of those without trying too hard, thanks to a handful of gerrymandered districts redrawn in their favor.

Republicans say it's too early to be making many projections. Democrats would need to sweep most or all of the 27 Republican-held seats that are currently regarded as competitive and then win even more districts to get the magic number 30 needed for a majority. (The current breakdown is 246 to 188, meaning Democrats need to turn 30 Republican seats blue.)

Republicans also are buoyed by recent congressional primaries that suggest that, while voters may want to send a newbie to the White House, they might be OK with sending a veteran back to Congress to work with him.

Here are the some of the top House races most likely to flip parties. Possibly. Maybe.

Nebraska 2nd, Rep. Brad Ashford, D: There are only two Democratic incumbents on this list, and Rep. Brad Ashford, who represents one of the most Republican-leaning seats that House Democrats hold, is one of them. The Omaha freshman lawmaker originally struggled to raise money, making Republicans salivate they'd at least have one easy pickup.

Republicans recruited retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Don Bacon, who has a great resume but also faces a primary challenger and has stumbled in fundraising. .

Illinois 10th, Rep. Bob Dold, R: Dold's seat in the northern Chicago suburbs is one of the most Democratic districts Republicans hold this cycle. The seat has flip-flopped between Democrat and Republican in recent elections - specifically between Dold and his Democratic rival, former congressman Brad Schneider, who wants the seat back.

Nevada 4th, Rep. Crescent Hardy, R: Democrats started counting down to November 2016 for the chance to kick Hardy, a political novice, out when he first won his surprise victory in 2014. The vast district is essentially split between rural central Nevada and the diverse northern Las Vegas suburbs. Democrats have three contenders battling it out in the primary.

Iowa 1st, Rep. Rod Blum, R: The district most likely to flip without the interference of redrawn borders is Blum's. Like Hardy, Blum was a somewhat surprising surfer on the GOP's 2014 wave. Obama won the district by a 14-point margin in 2012.

Blum hasn't necessarily helped make his case to northeastern Iowa's more moderate voters - he's consistently voted as if he represents a heavily conservative district rather than a swing or even blue-leaning one. His first vote was to oppose Speaker John Boehner's re-election as House Speaker.

This past week, Blum stirred up a mini-controversy - and some headlines back home - when he tweeted a picture of cranes on D.C.'s Southwest waterfront and said the city 'needs a recession.” On the bright side for Republicans, Blum does have some $1 million to try to fend off whoever comes out of a Democratic primary, whether that's former Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon or former Iowa State House Speaker Patrick Murphy.

Arizona 1st, OPEN, D: This is one of many open seats. But unlike the others, Arizona's expansive 1st Congressional District is not up for grabs because of redistricting. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D, is challenging Sen. John McCain, R, in what could be a competitive race if the Trump winds blow against McCain. She leaves a district that's voted for the Republican presidential candidate in at least the past four elections.

Arizona state House Speaker David Gowan and Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, are both wading through controversies. Democrats are bullish on their leading candidate, former state lawmaker Tom O'Halleran, a moderate Republican-turned-independent-turned Democrat.