Could Iowa caucuses get bucked off ‘goat rodeo?’

Will Iowa get bucked off its first-in-the-nation spot in the quadrennial “goat rodeo” that is the presidential nominating process?

It's a storyline worth following as the 2012 primary-caucus season begins – probably about Nov. 3 – a day after the mid-term general election, according to an attorney who handles election-related cases for Republican clients.

“Whether Iowa goes first in 2012 is up for grabs in unprecedented fashion,” Ben Ginsberg, who played a role in the Bush-Gore recount in 2000 and the Franken-Coleman recount in Minnesota two years ago, said at an election law conference in the Chicago suburb of Rosemont earlier this week.

He suggests if there is a plethora of GOP hopefuls, many states will have favorite sons– or favorite daughters, as the case may be – and try to jump ahead of Iowa to give their home state candidate the advantage of an early win.

“It's a recipe for mayhem,” Ginsberg said.

Already, Republicans Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Pence Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and others are considered possible 2012 GOP contenders for the nomination.

Ginsberg predicted decisions by the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee to start the nominating process in Iowa won't prevent the process from becoming a “goat rodeo,” a term used to describe a chaotic situation involving many people with different agendas that make it nearly impossible to instill order.

Sue Dvorsky, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party, doesn't see how that will be any different than 2008 when both Democrats and Republicans had wide-open nominating processes for the first time since the 1950s.

Previous attempts to leapfrog over Iowa have not worked in the past, said Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn.

“I think the orderly nature of the caucuses and primaries in the early states is appreciated by the campaigns because it helps them plan accordingly,” he said.

Another thing, Strawn said, is that the open field increases the importance of doing well in the early states – Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

“That's where the media and the people who handicap these races are watching,” he said. “If someone tries to move a state up to get a little wind at their back, it will be hard to do if no one is paying attention to that state.”

The Iowa caucuses, Dvorsky said, give candidates the opportunity to talks to real voters in a lot of places. A wide-open Republican nomination contest won't change that.

“Does that mean there will be jockeying? Sure, but there always is,” she said.

Despite potential challenges, Ginsberg thinks Iowa will go first “even if that means the caucuses are a year from now.”