Bush steps toward presidential candidacy likely to shake up 2016 field in Iowa

CEDAR RAPIDS- Jeb Bush's announcement that he's actively considering a presidential campaign is likely to shake up the field of 2016 GOP presidential wannabes who already are staking their flags in Iowa, the first stop on the road to the nomination.

Although Bush previously has talked about seeking the GOP nomination, his announcement came as something of a surprise for some Iowa GOP insiders.

'I'm surprised that it's this early, but I guess we've been hearing rumors for some time that he was seriously thinking about it,” Gov. Terry Branstad said Tuesday morning.

'The fact that he's announcing an exploratory committee early may indicate that he's taking this real seriously. I didn't expect this was going to happen this quickly.”

By making his intentions known 8 months before the Iowa GOP straw poll and more than a year ahead of the first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses, Bush automatically become a front-runner, if not the front-runner, according to Tim Albrecht of Redwave Digital and a veteran of numerous Republicans campaigns.

'By getting in early he will shake up the field and influence the timeline of other candidates,” Albrecht said. Bush's announcement likely will force some other candidates' 'would-be supporters to make decisions about who they'll back.”

The downside for Bush, 61, who served as governor of Florida from 1999 to 2007, may be that voters, including some Republicans, think the Bush family has resided in the White House long enough. His father, George H.W. Bush, was a one-term president after spending eight years as Ronald Reagan's vice president. His brother, George W. Bush, ended two terms in the White House unpopular with many in the party because of his spending, bail outs, and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Democrats have had their fill of Bushes, too, according to state party Chairman Scott Brennan.

'Just as Barbara Bush said herself, we've had enough Bushes in the White House,” he said.

However, GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann thinks it would be great to see both Presidents Bush come back to Iowa to campaign for Jeb.

'To have two former presidents driving up and down Interstate 80 and I-35 campaigning - it doesn't get any better than that,” Kaufmann said.

Craig Robinson of TheIowaRepublican.com hears about 'Bush fatigue,” but says that 'for the most part, they are people who never would support a candidate like Jeb Bush.”

He can't assume that high name recognition and fundraising will be enough to win the caucuses, Kaufmann said.

'Everybody knows the name, but they don't know Jeb Bush,” he said. 'He's starting from scratch.”

Robinson has heard that Bush has an invitation to U.S. Rep. Steve King's Jan. 24 Freedom Summit, which features a lineup of many conservatives who may seek the 2016 GOP nomination. Organizers did not immediately respond to a request for confirmation.

Robinson would advise Bush to attend even though many of the activists the Citizens United-sponsored event will attract are unlikely Bush supporters.

'It's probably not a roomful he can convince, but if you're running for president in Iowa you'll run into people like that at every event,” Robinson said. 'If he's serious, he should be there.”

Bush's support for immigration reform and common core, for example, could be obstacles with Iowa caucusgoers, Branstad said. That makes it more important for Bush to share his vision with Iowans.

'I think Iowans are pretty open-minded and objective and, at this point, it's a wide-open situation,” Branstad said. 'It's really up to who's willing to work hard and come here and, hopefully, articulate a vision that Iowans can identify with.”

Those issues will be deal-breakers with some Iowa Republicans, Robinson said. He thinks Bush's challenge will be to expand the pool of caucusgoers beyond tea party activists and single-issues voters. To be successful, he said Bush needs to attract Republicans who vote in primaries, but aren't regular caucus participants.

He pointed to Branstad's success when he came out of retirement in 2010 to run for a fifth term as governor.

'The power of the Branstad candidacy was bringing people back into the party fold,” Robinson said. 'The same could be said for Bush if he's seen as a steady hand at the wheel.”

Albrecht predicted Bush will appeal to a 'wide swath” of the Republican Party.

'Republicans like governors,” he said. 'He has a record of success in Florida and I think he'll find support across a broad section of the party.”