Anybody's guess how Straw Poll will shake out

AMES - Saturday is an important dress rehearsal for a cast of Republican presidential hopefuls.

The GOP auditioning process starts when thousands of party activists converge on the Iowa State University campus to partake of food, drink, entertainment and speeches at this major fundraiser. They also deliver their collective reviews for the still-developing Republican players seeking the 2012 presidential nomination.

The straw poll balloting will give the first indication of each candidate's organizational, fundraising and messaging skills. It gives the top-tier finishers a major bounce in the bid to capture the first prize in the 2012 presidential nominating process - Iowa's kickoff precinct caucuses. Candidates who show poorly will struggle to stay in the race.

"It's still a very fluid race," said Matt Strawn, Republican Party of Iowa chairman, shortly after eight candidates competed in a feisty debate Thursday night. "I think for the first time in a long time there's probably more uncertainty over what the ultimate finish will be in Ames. I think people are deciding even at the last minute who to support.

"I like to say that most of the activists I talk to are at the dating phase when it comes to the candidates they're talking to, not the marrying stage. So it's still early in the process," he said.

The target for most of the candidates in recent months has been President Barack Obama, but a number of subplots have developed among the GOP combatants. Most political observers view the straw poll as a three-way race among Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

Bachmann and Pawlenty continued their intrastate sparring on the C.Y. Stephens Auditorium stage Thursday night by taking some political shots at each other. Paul and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum locked horns over foreign policy and marriage issues. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney - considered the front-runner nationally, though not competing in the straw poll - defended his health care record.

Saturday's intrigue also will center around whether Tea Party activists and social and religious conservatives will coalesce around one candidate, like they did for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2007, or dilute their effect by spreading their support among contenders.

Paul likely will draw another strong showing from libertarian and fiscal conservatives, while others in the field will compete for the party's establishment wing, focused heavily on economic issues.

Bachmann, Pawlenty, Paul, Santorum, business executive Herman Cain of Georgia and Michigan Rep. Thaddeus McCotter have reserved space at the straw poll site and are guaranteed ballot slots.

In addition, Iowa GOP officials have agreed to include Romney, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman on the ballot. They also are providing a write-in option for unannounced Republicans like Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee.

Perry and Palin have taken steps to draw attention away from the Ames straw poll. Perry has indicated he will announce his candidacy Saturday in South Carolina and then travel to Waterloo on Sunday. Palin brought her national bus tour to the Iowa State Fair on Friday.