Trump’s deportation policy could drive up farm wages

Across America's orchards and crop fields, a shrinking supply of migrants already has driven pay up faster than in the broader workforce. President Donald Trump's immigration policy may turbocharge that trend.

Wages for U.S. fieldworkers rose 36 percent over the past decade through the conclusion of last year's harvest in October, compared with 27 percent among non-farm employees, government data show. R

educing the supply of labor wouldn't just cause pay gains to accelerate. The Trump administration's expanded deportations for undocumented immigrants could put some growers out of business if the actions aren't accompanied by increases in workers available through legal guest-worker programs.

'You would see operations just shut down,” said Zaid Kurdieh, who employs about two dozen legal immigrants at Norwich Meadows Farm in central New York state. 'Even if you fill the gap with legal workers, the wages will jump just to get people to work,” said Kurdieh, whose 80-acre organic farm supplies a wide range of vegetables to farmers markets in New York and New Jersey.

While policy shifts on taxes and health care are months or years from taking effect - much less having a broad influence on the world's largest economy - farms and their workers may provide a more real-time look at the impact of a signature Trump action.

Other industries with a significant proportion of undocumented workers include construction and hospitality, with one study suggesting that unauthorized immigrants contribute about 3 percent of private-sector gross domestic product.

Trump's immigration plan, outlined in memos on Tuesday, would add 15,000 border-enforcement agents to enforce immigration laws and expand the categories of undocumented immigrants targeted for expulsion. The administration argues the moves are necessary to fulfill campaign promises to restore the integrity of national borders, while critics call it a detailed blueprint for the mass deportation of 11 million undocumented immigrants.

The extent of actual deportations and the system's capacity to handle them is unclear. Officials haven't given targets for the number of expulsions, after more than 2.7 million during former President Barack Obama's eight-year term.

Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly vowed on Thursday that there would be no 'mass” deportations.

While much of the U.S. farm economy is mechanized, fresh produce and dairy remain heavily dependent on human labor. Immigrants, both legal and unauthorized, have supplied that labor for generations. American farms have already faced worker shortages from Obama's stepped-up deportations and a decline in arrivals from Mexico, traditionally the main source of migrants.

About a quarter of the U.S. farm workforce, more than 300,000 people, don't have valid immigration papers, according to a 2009 survey by the Pew Hispanic Center. Other studies suggest the number may be more than 1 million and as much as 70 percent of all workers.