Iowa 1st District Republicans see opportunity in open-seat race

Unable to defeat incumbent U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley in the past three elections, Eastern Iowa Republican were heartened by the prospect of an open-seat race when the Waterloo Democrat announced he would run for the Senate.

However, open seat or not, the folks who handicap congressional races don't see the 1

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District race as much of a race at all.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Charlie Cook's Political Report see it as “Likely Democrat” and the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call don't see it as competitive.

That's due in large part to the fact the number of voters registered as Democrats in the 20-county district outnumber Republicans by nearly 33,000.

Oh, and President Obama took 56 percent of the 1

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District vote in 2012.

That was then, according to Rod Blum, a Dubuque businessman seeking the 2014 Republican nomination.

He predicts a “wave election” favoring Republicans similar to 2010 because public opinion has turned against the president, Democrats and Washington.

“Real people – the people out here, are so upset with what's going on,” he said Monday in Cedar Rapids. There's ObamaCare, a handful of scandals, endless wars and government overreach, he said.

That's the way the race is seen over at Cedar Rapids businessman Steve Rathje's campaign.

“Look, it's an off-year election and the president's (poll) numbers are on the skids,” said Doug Wagner, Rathje's campaign manager. He sees the political atmosphere turning against Obama and Democrats “because people are looking at Washington and saying, ‘This isn't what we voted for.'”

Rathje and Blum are the only Republicans in the race, but Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen of Hiawatha is expected to join them, perhaps, next month.

On the Democratic ticket, former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy of Dubuque and Cedar Rapids City Councilwoman Monica Vernon are running. Former State Sen. Swati Dandekar of Marion and Cedar Rapids attorney Dave O'Brien are considering running.

Despite the registration advantage, Wagner predicts 2014 will be an uphill battle for any Democrat.

The economy isn't rebounding as fast as the president suggests, job opportunities are scarce “and no one is doing anything about it,” Wagner said.

When Blum and Wagner read the registration numbers, they see nearly 40 percent of 1

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District voters choosing the “No Party” label.

“A lot of those independent lean toward conservative values,” Wagner said. “They're upset with what's in the news.”

Those folks see the country on the wrong track and Blum believes they'll be looking for a fresh approach in 2014.

“They're looking for someone who is authentic … someone who lives in the real world,” Blum said.

For more on their campaigns, visit www.steverathje.com and www.rodblum.com.

The 1

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District includes Linn, Worth, Mitchell, Howard, Winneshiek, Allamakee, Bremer, Fayette, Clayton, Black Hawk, Buchanan, Delaware, Dubuque, Marshall, Tama, Benton, Jones, Jackson, Poweshiek and Iowa counties.

james.lynch@sourcemedia.net