IPCC AR6 says weather is not more extreme

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Assessment Report 6, Working Group 1 is now out and available to the public. Chapter 11, Tables 11.4 — 11.7 of the report shows that the IPCC has little confidence that extreme weather has increased, and even less confidence in the human contribution to it. (IPCC AR6 WG1, Chapter 11)

Although there is regional variability, the increased costs of extreme weather are due primarily to increased development and the increased value of property at risk.

In 2019 The Clean Grid Alliance — which includes renewable developers, environmental groups, and others said transmission line congestion threatens to dramatically slow renewable energy development in the upper Midwest, and that it could have a ripple effect that goes far beyond keeping the lights on.

There is growing awareness that industrial wind and solar require large areas which means energy must be transmitted over greater distances (recall the proposals from over a decade ago for the Rock Island Clean Line). It also increases the amount of battery storage required to provide backup for intermittent sources as well as increasing the amount of generation required to carry the load and charge the batteries too.

Small modular nuclear reactors could be located close to demand centers thus reducing transmission line congestion, intermittent generation and battery backup requirements and, if CO2 emissions are a problem, could reduce those too. They have been operated safely on Navy ships for decades.

Fred Hubler

Cedar Rapids