Cedar Rapids school district enrollment analysis to guide facility plans

CEDAR RAPIDS — Cedar Rapids school officials are examining areas of the district that have the most potential for future housing developments — and looking at other enrollment trends — to guide them in making decisions as a new facility plan is created and another bond referendum is taken to voters, possibly in November 2025.

The attendance boundary for newly-constructed West Willow Elementary School, 6225 First Ave. SW, Cedar Rapids, has the most potential for housing developments, with almost 28 percent of the total potential units expected over the next 10 years in the district — or more than 3,000 potential units, a district analysis shows.

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The second fastest-growing attendance boundary is at Hiawatha Elementary School, 603 Emmons St., Hiawatha, with 17.5 percent of total potential units in the district over the next decade.

Other elementary schools with the largest potential for housing developments within their attendance boundaries are on the west side of Cedar Rapids and the northeast side near Hiawatha, according to the analysis. This includes:

The enrollment analysis — commissioned by the district and presented Monday to the Cedar Rapids school board — will guide future conversations about any potential changes that might be considered to optimize the student learning experience, according to board documents. It was conducted using data from October 2023 by RSP & Associates, which assists school districts in long-range planning.

Rob Schwartz, chief executive officer of RSP & Associates, said the data illustrates where people are most densely populated within an attendance boundary and where future housing developments could be constructed.

Schwartz said the data can help school officials make changes to individual school attendance boundaries proactively, if the data shows a school might be “burdened by a lot of kids without a lot of space in those buildings.”

It can also better help school officials understand the “turnover” in subdivisions, where there might be a lot of families with similar-age children all at once before they age out of the school system.

School board President Cindy Garlock said the data “lays the groundwork” for facility planning. “It helps us know where those schools need to be for the future,” she said.

Where are the students?

Housing construction within the Cedar Rapids school district attendance boundary has been stable, with about 400 units built each year. Census data also indicates a stable increase to the population, according to the study. There are almost 11,000 total potential units identified for development within the district over the next decade.

District enrollment overall has increased by 26 students from last year. The largest historical increase in enrollment in Cedar Rapids schools was from the 2021-22 to the 2022-23 school year, with an increase of 2.8 percent or 395 students.

But a contributor to the historical decline in enrollment in the district is a drop in birthrates in Linn County, resulting in smaller kindergarten classes each year, according to the study.

Van Buren Elementary School has seen the most growth of students since the official enrollment count was taken Oct. 1, 2023. The school’s enrollment increased by 46 students this school year.

Almost 72 percent of the student growth experienced at Van Buren this year are new students, likely moving into the new residential areas within the Van Buren attendance boundary, according to the report.

The district sees on average 13.4 elementary-age students per 100 single-family homes, and an average of 10.2 elementary-age students per 100 multifamily homes.

Taylor Elementary, 720 Seventh Ave. SW, has the largest single-family home yield rate — the ratio of students who attend each school to the number of housing units in that school’s attendance area — with 23 students per 100 single-family homes in 2023.

Arthur Elementary, 2630 B Ave., NE, and Erskine Elementary, 600 36th St. SE, have the smallest single family yield rate, with eight students per 100 single-family homes.

Taylor and Van Buren have the largest 2023 multifamily home yield rate, with 14 students per 100 multifamily homes.

Madison Elementary, 1341 Woodside Dr. NW, has the smallest multifamily home yield rate, with three students per 100 multifamily homes in 2023.

RSP & Associates conducted a similar analysis for the Cedar Rapids school board ahead of the last general obligation bond referendum — a $220 million ask that was turned down by district voters in November 2023.

A second presentation regarding the enrollment analysis will be made to the Cedar Rapids school board later this year, including an analysis of school buildings by architects. The architects from Shive-Hattery and MA+ Architecture were hired by the school board earlier this year to help with facility planning.

Elementary enrollment

The analysis shows the district retains about 87 percent of students from the beginning — kindergarten — to the end — 12th grade. The district has the lowest retention of students from kindergarten to first grade, and also ninth to 12th grade, based on 13 years of data.

The enrollment change in the community can be influenced by birthrate, demographics, types of development and housing affordability, according to the study.

A three-year average shows significant loss of students at the elementary and high school level, Schwartz said.

Schwartz said if the district could reverse the migration of elementary students leaving the district — even by half — enrollment would be significantly higher. About 2,000 elementary school-aged kids have left the district over the past three years, and 1,600 students have entered the district during the period.

For the 2023-24 school year, Johnson STEAM Academy, 355 18th St. SE, Cedar Rapids — which is also near where there is the greatest student density — had the highest number of elementary students who left the district. There were 64 students who left Johnson, but 41 who enrolled in.

Van Buren Elementary School had the largest number of students who came into the district. There were 66 students gained this year, and 29 who left.

Middle and high school enrollment

Class sizes are projected to continue to be highest at the high school and smallest at the middle school.

Three out of the 12 grade levels increased from the 2022-23 school year, with the district seeing the largest growth in students in incoming freshman classes — and then student loss year-to-year in high school.

The largest grade-level this school year is ninth grade, with 1,260 students. Over a three-year average, incoming ninth grade classes have about 167 additional students each year.

The largest decrease in class sizes is incoming 11th-graders, with 88 fewer students going into 11th grade than were in 10th grade over a three-year average.

The smallest grade-level in the district is 12th grade, with about 1,000 students.

RSP & Associates also recently conducted an enrollment analysis and assisted with facility plans in the Des Moines Public School District for the 2023-24 school year. The firm also conducted enrollment analysis for the College Community and Clear Creek Amana Community school districts within the last three years.

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