It’s 'do or die' time for Iowa State today against No. 15 Tigers

AMES - Not much has needed to be said around Iowa State's football offices this week.

Players, coaches, trainers, ball boys, secretaries - everyone understood the situation heading into tonight's regular-season finale against No. 15-ranked Missouri at Jack Trice Stadium. The Cyclones' season - and whether or not it continues into December for a second straight year - hinges on pulling the upset.

“It's do or die,” safety Mike O'Connell said. “There's no other way to put it. We have to win.”

ISU comes into Senior Day at 5-6 overall and 3-4 in Big 12 play after last week's debacle at last-place Colorado.

Most had thought the bowl-clinching win would come there. Instead, it was worst-case scenario as the game was a blowout and starting quarterback Austen Arnaud had his career come to an end because of a knee injury.

Arnaud spent the week tending to his torn up knee while helping backup Jerome Tiller prepare. He knows motivation for his teammates to rebound - and get back to the postseason - will be extremely high.

Speeches aren't necessary.

“With a loss and embarrassment like that, not a lot needs to be said,” Arnaud said.

Coach Paul Rhoads knows the value a second win over a ranked team this season would bring.

The fruits of last year's Insight Bowl berth are being felt now with the additional practice time and exposure to coaching. Next season the Cyclones begin a nine-game conference schedule with the newly configured Big 12, minus Nebraska and Colorado.

“(A win) will be very important to moving the program ahead faster,” Rhoads said, “but it won't be the end of the world if we don't get that done. We've made a lot of progress and are headed in the right direction.”

ISU's senior class has been the biggest reason for that upward climb.

There's been significant peaks and valleys along the way for fifth-year seniors like O'Connell, Arnaud, center Ben Lamaak, tailback Alexander Robinson and receiver Jake Williams.

They were recruited by Dan McCarney, who after 12 seasons reluctantly gave way to Gene Chizik. Chizik lasted two unsuccessful seasons, producing a 5-19 record before bolting for Auburn. Rhoads became the program's third head coach in four years in December 2008 and promptly produced its first bowl victory since 2004.

“It's been a journey,” O'Connell said. “It's been full of so many memories. I couldn't be more happy to go out with such a great group of guys who have stuck together through the ups and the downs. I'm so proud to be a Cyclone.”

Rhoads knows it hasn't been an easy road for those guys.

“I have tried to imagine all the transition they've gone through,” he said. “What's so important to me is how they've embraced myself and the staff. Everybody in this program would like nothing more than send them out victorious and give them one more opportunity to play on a national stage.”

Game Guide

• Teams: Iowa State (5-6, 3-4) vs. Missouri (8-2, 4-2)
• Where: Jack Trice Stadium (53,613), Ames
• When: 6 p.m. today
• Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny and 36
• TV: Mediacom Connections
• Radio: KGYM-AM (1600)
• Spread: Missouri by 11
• Series: Missouri leads, 59-34-9
• Coaches: Paul Rhoads is 12-12 in his second season at Iowa State. Missouri's Gary Pinkel is in his 10th season with a 75-48 record.

Game Analysis

When Iowa State has the ball

For just the third time in the last 37 games, Austen Arnaud will not be the team's starting quarterback. Earlier than expected, the injured senior is giving way to sophomore Jerome Tiller.

But Tiller is not without experience. He won at Nebraska last year in his first career start and has played in a handful of other games the last two seasons. That said, Missouri's defense will provide a big challenge for Tiller.

The Tigers lead the Big 12 and are 10th nationally in scoring defense (17.5 ppg). Tiller is going to be pressured. Missouri averages 3.0 sacks a game and in sophomore Aldon Smith has a future top NFL Draft pick on the defensive line. Smith is playing hurt and his production is down from a year ago, but putting a tight end or back on his side to help block wouldn't hurt.

The Cyclones had their worst rushing performance in more than a decade last weekend at Colorado, totaling minus-6 yards. It would be a huge help to Tiller, who also can run the ball, if the running game can get going again. Alexander Robinson has had some big games against the Tigers in the past and enters today 152 yards shy of a second straight 1,000-yard season.

Missouri has allowed a Big 12-low nine rushing touchdowns and its red-zone defense ranks second nationally.

Advantage: Missouri

When Missouri has the ball

This is one of the most prolific offenses in the country, and has been for the last several years.

Star sophomore Blaine Gabbert is the one directing traffic for the Tigers. The 6-5, 235-pounder is a dual threat, owning one of the stronger arms in college football and a set of legs that can run around and through defenders.

He's got a pair of really good players to throw to in tight end Michael Egnew and receiver T.J. Moe. Egnew and Moe rank ninth and 10th, respectively, in the NCAA in receptions per game. Egnew is the leading pass-catching tight end in the nation with 71 receptions.

The Tigers' run game is average, though over the last four games they are averaging 203 yards a game. Junior De'Vion Moore is the leading rusher, but three others (sophomore Kendial Lawrence and true freshmen Henry Josey and Marcus Murphy) have made it a tailback by committee approach while running behind an offensive line that has 131 career starts between them.

The Cyclones had trouble defending this group a year ago in Columbia, Mo., and will need to be sure tacklers with Missouri's short, quick passing game.

Advantage: Missouri

Special teams

Part of the total package that is Missouri is its strong kicking game. Place kicker Grant Ressel is 16 of 18 on field goals this season and is an impressive 93.3 percent accurate (42 of 45) for his career. Last year's 65 of 66 effort on field goals and PATs set an NCAA single-season record for combined kick accuracy.

Iowa State's Grant Mahoney has proved to be money inside of 40 yards (4 of 4) but is just 4 of 11 on kicks longer than that. The punting game is about even. ISU freshman Kirby Van Der Kamp continues to do well, averaging 45.5 yards per attempt. Missouri's Matt Grabner isn't quite that good, though his net punting average of 39.98 ranks eighth in the NCAA.

Advantage: Missouri

The scoreboard

Iowa State shouldn't have any trouble getting motivated for this one with bowl eligibility hanging in the balance. But wanting it and doing it are different things.

Missouri has superior talent and isn't starting a backup quarterback. The Tigers' spread offense traditionally is not one ISU has success stopping, and this defense is a tired after 11 straight weeks of playing a lot of snaps.

The Cyclones are hoping Tiller's youthful exuberance can counteract what he doesn't have in experience or poise. He won at Nebraska a season ago, but unlike that memorable win, the offense is going to have to produce some points.

Missouri 38, Iowa State 20