State cross country capsules, predictions

FORT DODGE — Capsules for the state cross country meet Saturday at Lakeside Golf Course.

Class 4A Girls

Time — 11 a.m.

Top individuals — There are plenty to choose from at Johnston, which raided the top six spots in a dominating performance at the Council Bluffs regional. A 10th-place finisher at state last year, junior Jessica McKee ran 17:45, beating freshman sister Brooke McKee by 9 seconds. Iowa City West is strong out front with Gabby Skopec and Bailey Nock. Iowa City High's Mary Arch edged Cedar Rapids Kennedy's Ella Popenhagen and City's Anna Lindower in the closest finish of the five regionals. All finished within a second of each other.

Teams to watch — An influx of elite youth makes Johnston a solid favorite. Three freshmen are among the top six that monopolized the leaderboard at the Council Bluffs regional. After the Dragons, take your pick among four teams from the Mississippi Valley Conference. Cedar Falls is the MVC champion and outran Dubuque Hempstead by a 13-point margin at the Cedar Falls region. Iowa City High ran away from the competition at Noelridge Park, and Iowa City West edged Pleasant Valley by five points on the Spartans' home course.

How they'll finish — 1. Johnston, 2. Cedar Falls, 3. Iowa City High, 4. Iowa City West, 5. Dubuque Hempstead. 

Class 4A Boys

Time — 11:30 a.m.

Top individuals — Cedar Falls' Sam Schillinger is the top returning individual from last year, finishing third as a junior. He won the district on his home course last week in 16:10, beating the pack by 15 seconds. Ryan Murphy of Linn-Mar ran strictly to win at Noelridge Park and succeeded in 15:57. He was sixth last year. Trevor Kirk of West Des Moines Valley and Nicholas Yanek of Pleasant Valley were fourth and seventh in 2015, and both were district champions (at Ankeny and Pleasant Valley, respectively).

Teams to watch — Defending-champion West Des Moines Dowling carried the No. 1 ranking into the postseason, and narrowly won the Council Bluffs district title over Johnston, 43-48. Yanek paced Pleasant Valley to a 22-point margin over a strong Cedar Rapids Prairie outfit on the Spartans' home course. MVC Super meet champion Dubuque Hempstead was impressive in a district-title run at Cedar Falls. The surprise from districts came at Noelridge Park, where upstart Cedar Rapids Washington outran both Iowa City High and Linn-Mar. Duplicate that performance, and the Warriors have an outside shot to reach the clubhouse deck with a top-three finish Saturday.

How they'll finish — 1. Pleasant Valley, 2. West Des Moines Dowling, 3. Cedar Rapids Prairie, 4. Dubuque Hempstead, 5. Cedar Rapids Washington.

Class 3A Girls

Time — Noon

Top individuals — Julia Schumacher of Davenport Assumption is the defending champion, but ran second to teammate Joy Ripslinger at the Solon regional last week. Those two figure to lead the pack. Center Point-Urbana has a freshman ace in Adrianna Katcher, who ran 18:29 and won the Decorah regional by 24 seconds. Ellie Friesen of Crestwood was third in that race; she was fourth in Class 2A last year while running for Osage. Raegan Andersen and Ellie Mendlik give Denison-Schleswig a pair of top runners.

Teams to watch — The field is balanced, and it's a pretty good bet that one of the three qualifiers from the Decorah regional will capture the title. Dubuque Wahlert came into the postseason as the top-ranked team, but Charles City was the regional champion with 72 points, followed by Decorah (78) and Wahlert (80). Decorah has a history of peaking for state, and that might give the Vikings the edge. Regional champions Pella and Mount Vernon-Lisbon probably have the best shot at busting into that trio. Davenport Assumption is the defending champion and has two aces, but probably not enough depth to repeat.

How they'll finish — 1. Decorah, 2. Dubuque Wahlert, 3. Pella, 4. Charles City, 5. Mount Vernon-Lisbon.

Class 3A Boys

Time — 12:30 p.m.

Top individuals — Mount Pleasant's Logan Murray and Carlisle's J.J. Orput claimed the top two spots at last year's state meet (separated by less than a second), and it won't be a surprise if they lead the pack again. Murray was the individual champ at the Pella district, while Orput raced past the field at Atlantic by a 28-second margin. Marion's duo of juniors Jeremy Fopma and Myles Bach figure to be the top challengers; they were 1-2 at the Solon district, with Fopma running in 15:46.

Teams to watch — With five runners back from last year's championship squad, Mount Vernon-Lisbon has been the frontrunner in this class all fall, and the Mustangs are pretty solid favorites to reign again. They won the Solon district, scoring 29 points and winning by 31. Grinnell, the 2015 runner-up, is the most likely candidate to push the Mustangs. The Tigers also bring back five runners, and won a strong district at Pella by 23 points. After that, it's probably Gilbert and Dallas Center-Grimes, separated by just four points at the Atlantic district.

How they'll finish — 1. Mount Vernon-Lisbon, 2. Grinnell, 3. Gilbert, 4. Dallas Center-Grimes, 5. Mount Pleasant.

Class 2A Girls

Time — 1 p.m.

Top individuals — Junior Paige Holub of Monticello is the two-time defending champion, and ran 19:22 for an 18-second win at the Monticello regional. Mid-Prairie's Anna Hostetler (junior) and Marie Hostetler (freshman) ran 1-2 at the Pella regional in 17:57 and 17:58, rolling up a margin of 55 seconds on the rest of the field. Never discount Becca McDermott of Cascade, a three-time runner-up, despite a fifth-place regional finish. Karley Larson of Underwood was the regional champion at Atlantic and placed third at state in 2015.

Teams to watch — After being unseated by Cascade last year, Monticello is a pretty firm favorite to regain its throne Saturday. The Panthers bring back six runners from last year's team, led by Holub and Jordyn Patterson, and beat a strong Springville-Central City squad by 32 points at the Monticello regional. South Winneshiek was third at state last year and brings its team back virtually intact. The Warriors built a 28-point margin to win the Garner regional. Pocahontas Area is ranked No. 2 and won its regional at Orange City by 29 ponts.

How they'll finish — 1. Monticello, 2. Pocahontas Area, 3. South Winneshiek, 4. Springville-Central City, 5. Mid-Prairie.

Class 2A Boys

Time — 1:30 p.m.

Top individuals — The top four runners from last year's state meet have graduated, and that moves guys like Reece Smith of Garner GHV and Gable Sieperda of GLR-Central Lyon toward the front of the list of contenders. Smith was fifth last year as a freshman, and was dominant in a title run at the Garner district, running in 15:57 and winning by 41 seconds. Sieperda was sixth in 2015 and claimed top honors at the Orange City district in 16:25. Ogden's Andrew Stumbo was the 1A champion last year, and moves up a class. He won the Atlantic district by 18 seconds.

Teams to watch — Despite losing its top runner to graduation, defending champion Garner-Hayfield/Ventura is the team to beat again. The Cardinals had the top two runners at the Garner district and outran runner-up Clear Lake by eight points. Northwest Iowa powers Unity Christian and Western Christian went 1-2 at the Orange City district. Unity was the 2A runner-up in 2015. Mid-Prairie hopes to improve on a fourth-place finish last year, and ruled the Pella district by 24 points.

How they'll finish — 1. Garner GHV, 2. Unity Christian, 3. Clear Lake, 4. Mid-Prairie, 5. Western Christian.

Class 1A Girls

Time — 2 p.m.

Top individuals — Last year's runner-up, Camryn Reeg of Bellevue is the one to watch. Reeg ran away from the field at the Noelridge Park regional, finishing in 19:13, 51 seconds ahead of her closest competitor. Madison Schiernbeck of Ida Grove OA-BCIG captured the title at the Holstein regional and finished eighth at state last year. Sheridan LaCoste of Rockford and Jenna Twait of Hudson finished 1-2 at a strong Cedar Falls regional.

Teams to watch — No doubt, the strongest two regionals were at Cedar Falls and Noelridge Park, and it wouldn't be a big surprise of all of the top five came from those two sites. Elkader Central and Pekin were the top two teams at state in 2015, and those two were regional champions. Top-rated Elkader Central outscored No. 2 Hudson by 20 points, and No. 5 Pekin outran No. 3 Bellevue Marquette and No. 4 North Linn in a competitive meet. Now, the deck gets reshuffled one more time, and it's hard to predict how the cards will fall.

How they'll finish — 1. Pekin, 2. Elkader Central, 3. Bellevue Marquette, 4. Hudson, 5. North Linn.

Class 1A Boys

Time — 2:30 p.m.

Top individuals — A third-place finisher last year, Jake Hansen of West Fork moves to the role of favorite. He ran 16:38 at the Ankent district, beating Shane Breheny of Nodaway Valley by 16 seconds. Breheny was fourth last year. Riley Bauer of North Union ran a dominating race at the Holstein district, finishing in 15:54 and winning by more than a minute. Teammates Ryan Millikin and Malcolm Myers of Pekin ran 1-2 at the district at Noelridge Park.

Teams to watch — Nodaway Valley won the 1A title by 58 points past year, and returns its top three runners. That's a formula for a repeat, and it might not be close. Nodaway won the Ankeny district title by 65 points, placing four runners in the top nine. Pekin outdueled Calamus-Wheatland, 44-63, at Noelridge Park last week, and the Panthers probably have the inside track for second place again. Guthrie Center ACGC raced to a 39-point cushion at the Panora district.

How they'll finish — 1. Nodaway Valley, 2. Pekin, 3. Guthrie Center ACGC, 4. Calamus-Wheatland, 5. Hudson.

l Comments: (319) 368-8857; jeff.linder@thegazette.com