The Big Analysis -- Michigan State

When the Hawkeyes have the ball

This is the best defensive line coach Mark Dantonio has had at Michigan State.

DT Jerel Worthy (6-3, 310) is a force of nature (5.5 tackles for loss, two sacks), but the story has been ends Marcus Rush and William Gholston. The second-year players have been dominant at times. They're both in the top 15 of the Big Ten in tackles for loss (a combined 17). They've also combined for five sacks. Nose tackle Kevin Pickelman (6-4, 288) has made his presence felt in games and can be a match-up problem. His production (5.5 tackles for loss, two sacks) is right there with the more heralded Worthy.

Michigan State and Penn State might be the lone Big Ten teams that can lean on its front four to provide pressure on a quarterback and play the run like an iron fist. The front four also has kept the path clear for linebackers Denicos Allen and Max Bullough to run wild. Bullough leads the Spartans with 58 tackles. Allen is on a first-team all-Big Ten path with 11 tackles for loss and 6 sacks (tied for second in the Big Ten).

The Spartans' defense is much faster overall than a year ago, mostly because of Allen and strong safety Isaiah Lewis. Lewis (5-10, 195-pound sophomore) is going to be a pro, along with a few others on this defense. Corners Darqueze Dennard and Johnny Adams have been very good, though Adams was smoked a few times last week by Minnesota's Da'Jon McKnight. Dennard sat out with a concussion, but he'll be back for Iowa.

Weakside linebacker Chris Norman has missed the past two games with a sprained shoulder, but he'll bring his speed back to the position Saturday.

If Iowa running back Marcus Coker keeps up this pace he's been on Saturday, Iowa has a good chance of winning. Coker's last four games have been as hot as any back in the country and hotter than any Iowa back since 2008. The 6-0, 230-pound sophmore has averaged 161.75 yards (647 yards), 26.5 carries and has scored eight TDs. Coker has basically had Brandon Wegher's freshman season (641 yards, eight TDs) the last four weeks.

Now, Iowa will need more than Coker against a physical and aggressive Michigan State defense, headed by coordinator Pat Narduzzi. Iowa has more in quarterback James Vandenberg (18 TDs, four INTs) and wide receiver Marvin McNutt.

It's time to recognize McNutt's season, which is on track to be the all-time best by an Iowa receiver. Going in, McNutt has 57 catches for 959 yards and nine TDs. The Iowa season records in each of those categories goes 82, 1,037 and 11. All within striking range for the 6-4, 215-pounder.

One stat buried in last week's victory over Michigan was Iowa's performance in short yardage. The Hawkeyes had 12 plays that ranged from needing 1 yard for a first down to 6 yards. They achieved the objective four out of those 12 plays, including a 13-yard TD from from Coker.

Iowa fooled no one on Vandenberg's quick snap and drive that was stopped on a fourth-and-1 in the first half. The Hawkeyes wouldn't have needed the goal-line stand from their 3 if they weren't stopped on a pair of third-and-1 opportunities in the fourth quarter.

Advantage: Michigan State

When the Spartans have the ball

The Spartans' extreme offensive line makeover from 2010 included the replacement of two tackles and center from last season. And then, just for degree of difficulty, they lost right tackle Skyler Burkland and center Blake Treadwell to season-ending injuries.

So, that at least partially explains why the Spartans are last in the Big Ten with 130.33 rushing yards a game and 3.7 yards a carry. But after this unit bottomed out (29 rush yards against Notre Dame and 71 vs. Ohio State), it has trended up. The Spartans went for 213 yards in a 28-14 victory over Michigan. Iowa gained 131 in a win over the Wolverines last week. Along the lines of comparative stats, the Spartans had just 106 against Minnesota while Iowa piled up 269.

The reality is the Spartans are young up front, but the rookies are learning and getting decidedly tougher to play against. Center Travis Jackson is a redshirt freshman with a bright future at center.

The Spartans still have backs Le'Veon Bell (6-2, 237) and Edwin Baker (first-team all-Big Ten last season). Baker has, however, fumbled in three of the last four games and has been passed by Bell, whose 35-yard TD run sealed it against the Gophers last week.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins has been excellent this year when well-protected. He's the No. 3 QB in the Big Ten with 221.0 yards a game, but he's carried a lot of the burden for an offense that has essentially rebuilt its O-line twice this season. Wide receiver B.J. Cunningham is No. 3 in the conference with 91.9 yards a game. Keshawn Martin is a solid two (39 catches, 384 yards, three TDs). MSU has weapons at tight end in Brian Linthicum and Dion Sims, though Sims is dealing with a wrist injury. WR Keith Nichol hasn't met a big play he hasn't liked.

Just as Iowa has struggled on the road, the Spartans are 1-2 and have scored just 26 points. The Nebraska performance was a thud. First-year offensive coordinator Dan Roushar tried to attack the Huskers with deep passes into two-deep coverage. That could be a trust issue with a relatively new O-line.

Iowa's worst performance defensively this season was at Penn State, which ran right at the Hawkeyes for 231 yards, the most against an Iowa defense since 2007. Iowa might be facing a dose of heavy formations from the Spartans this week. MSU coach Mark Dantonio would love nothing more than to have his team impose its will on the Hawkeyes in Kinnick.

Iowa is down D-end Dominic Alvis for the rest of the season. So, what can Iowa do? The strength of the defense, in week 10, is cornerbacks Shaun Prater and Micah Hyde. Defensive coordinator Norm Parker has called for more man coverage this year to sneak a few more defenders close to the line of scrimmage.

If Iowa can get to a stalemate on the line of scrimmage, it's on Prater and Hyde to hang with Cunningham and Martin. Getting to that stalemate won't be easy. Michigan was one kind of rushing attack; Michigan State is an entirely different beast.

Advantage: Michigan State

Special teams

Keshawn Martin is among MSU's career leaders in punt return (505) and kick return (1,085) yards. This season, he's concentrating on punt returns and it seems to be paying off. He's third in the Big Ten with 13.3 yards on 14 returns. Kick returner Nick Hill is fifth in the conference with 24.24 yards a return.

MSU punter Mike Sadler is coming off a Big Ten special teams player of the week against Minnesota, dropping  four of five punts inside UM's 20-yard line. Kicker Dan Conroy is the school's career leader with 82 percent on field goals. This season, he's made 8 of 12 with two of four from 50-plus.

After just kind of gliding along and avoiding disaster, Micah Hyde had his best day as a punt returner with two for 28 yards last week against Michigan. If you think of it in first downs, every 10 yards Hyde gets on a return is one less first down Iowa's offense will need against perhaps its toughest challenge this season. Sophomore kicker Mike Meyer bounced back nicely from a tough performance at Minnesota with a 42-yarder against Michigan.

Advantage: Michigan State

The Scoreboard

Yes, all those advantages for Michigan State. What this mechanism doesn't account for is how close those "advantages" might be. Michigan State's defense is among the conference's elite, but Iowa's trio of McNutt, Coker and Vandenberg also is among the conference's best collection of firepower. When the Spartans have the ball, they haven't been automatic. An inexperienced O-line will do that. Iowa's defense is vulnerable, but it plays like it's fighting for its life on every snap, which it kind of is. Michigan State is the more proven team -- coming out of at Ohio State (W), Michigan (W), Wisconsin (W) and at Nebraska (L) with a 3-1 record -- and there's the edge.

Michigan State 28, Iowa 24