Pregame Iowa-Illinois notes on Brandon Paul, injuries and Big Ten Tournament predictions

INDIANAPOLIS - After his 22-point, 14-rebound effort against Iowa 11 days ago, Illinois center Meyers Leonard is the logical focal point for Iowa on both ends of the court. But the Hawkeyes shouldn't forget about Illinois guard Brandon Paul, either.

Paul, a junior, averaged 15 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists a game for the ninth-seeded Fighting Illini, who play 8th seed Iowa at 10:30 a.m. Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament. Paul was named third team all-Big Ten by the coaches.

Paul posted perhaps the season's most impressive game in a 79-74 win against Ohio State on Jan. 10. Paul scored 43 points and hit eight 8-pointers against the Buckeyes, and at that time lofted the Illini to the Big Ten conference lead. Paul's 43 points were the high score by a Big Ten player this year.

"He's as talented a player as there is in college basketball when it comes right down to it," Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery said. "He's got the ability to go by you, and he's got the ability to finish at the rim. He has tremendous range. He takes advantage of his length defensively. He's constantly stripping guys, and he blocks shots and he rebounds. I mean, he just helps you in a lot of ways."

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Iowa has at least three players with lingering injuries, but all should be available to play Thursday morning.

Freshman forward Aaron White suffered a thumb injury against Nebraska last week but he will be able to play. Sophomore guard Devyn Marble banged his left elbow against Northwestern and had trouble for most of the first half handling the ball.

"My elbow's fine," Marble said. "My fingers are still a little tingly. But I'm good."

Junior guard Eric May isn't in such good shape, however. He's missed two games with back spasms and the last time he played more than 12 minutes was against Nebraska on Jan. 26.

"He's really trying," McCaffery said. "He's better than he was, but he has no explosion which is what his game is. He can get after you defensively and fly down the court in transition, and he can get them into traffic and make a play for a rebound. He's just not able to do that right now.

"So he's given us what he can give us, and I appreciate that. He's a terrific competitor."

May, a 6-foot-5 Dubuque native, has scored just six points in the last eight games. He started the season scoring 12, 20 and 14 points against Chicago State, North Carolina A&T and Northern Illinois, respectively. May often passes up open shots, something he rarely did in the past.

"If you remember the play in the Illinois game on the break, he should have gone right up and right up through Meyers Leonard," McCaffery said. "Now (Leonard is) a little bit imposing at times. But Eric May would have normally have gone up there, and he just kicked it back out.

"He's lacing them up and giving us some quality minutes, but he's not himself."

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Iowa-Illinois is an unpredictable matchup. Illinois has all the talent in the world, but the Illini have lost 11 of their last 13 and eight of their last nine. The only win was at home against Iowa, a team the Illini have beaten 22 of 23 at Assembly Hall since 1987. Illinois Coach Bruce Weber likely is out after the season, and more often than not the Illini appear lethargic.

Iowa has knocked off four ranked opponents in Big Ten competition - Michigan, Wisconsin (twice) and Indiana. But Iowa also lost to last-place Nebraska and Penn State. Iowa ranks last in the Big Ten in points allowed.

If Iowa starts strong on offense, which I think will happen, I see Iowa winning 77-71. It would be the first Big Ten Tournament victory for the Hawkeyes since 2006.

Here are my Big Ten Tournament predictions:

FIRST ROUND

• 8. Iowa 77, 9. Illinois 71
• 5. Indiana 83, 12. Penn State 72
• 7. Northwestern 62, 10. Minnesota 59
• 6. Purdue 79, 11. Nebraska 62

QUARTERFINALS

• 1. Michigan State 67, 8. Iowa 63
• 5. Indiana 74, 4. Wisconsin 67
• 7. Northwestern 57, 2. Michigan 54
• 3. Ohio State 75, 6. Purdue 67

SEMIFINALS

• 5. Indiana 81, 1. Michigan State 79
• 3. Ohio State 76, 7. Northwestern 66

FINALS

• 3. Ohio State 83, 5. Indiana 71