OK places to be in August: The beach, the mountains, and outside the preseason football rankings

Time after time this summer, I've heard people say the Iowa football team does better when less is expected of it.

I'd like to report that's bunk, wishful thinking drummed up by Hawkeye fans who want a reason to be pleased their team is unranked going into the first week of the 2011 season.

But it's true. Iowa wasn't ranked entering the 2002 and 2003 seasons and finished both years No. 8 in the nation. Iowa was in the top 16 of the 2005 and 2006 Associated Press preseason rankings, but didn't show up in the final Top 25.

The Hawkeyes were 22nd in the 2009 AP preseason poll, seventh at season's end. They were No. 9 in last year's preseason rankings, but weren't ranked at all when the season was over.

It looks like a decade of “You're not the boss of me, outside expectations.” Given Iowa's unranked status now, Hawkeye fans can probably go ahead and make plans to be in one of the nice January bowls.

But the best thing to do is dismiss preseason rankings altogether. Because it isn't just Iowa that the pollsters can't peg four months before the dust has settled.

Since 2002, Wisconsin has been in the preseason Top 25 seven times. In four of those years, it ended the season unranked. But in the same time period, the Badgers were ranked in three final polls after starting the season on the “others receiving votes” list.

Penn State was in the preseason Top 25 last year, Michigan State wasn't. The Spartans were the ones that were No. 14 in the final AP poll, while the Nittany Lions were unranked.

Nebraska was in the preseason Top 25 but not the postseason poll in 2002, 2006 and 2007, and was in the postseason poll but not the preseason one in 2003 and 2005.

Auburn was No. 22 in last year's preseason rankings. Oregon was No. 11. Texas was No. 5. Which two played in the national-title game, and which went 5-7?

So this expectations deal with Iowa applies a lot of places. I don't think failed or exceeded expectations are to be taken all that seriously because ...

Because some seasons the whole of a team is far greater than the sum of its parts, and some seasons it isn't. For Iowa last year, it wasn't.

The Hawkeyes averaged 6.7 more points, 34 more rushing yards and 47 more total yards per game in 2010 than 2009. They allowed nine fewer quarterback sacks in ‘10 than ‘09, and had a plus-11 improvement in turnover margin. They completed 9 percent more of their passes in ‘10 than ‘09, and averaged a full yard more per offensive play.

Yet, they went 7-5 in the regular-season after going 10-2 the year before. Obviously, there were no stats featuring marked defensive improvement from ‘09 to ‘10. For instance, Iowa allowed 62.2 percent of completed passes last year after holding foes to a superb 49.6 percent in 2009.

Also, some years you win the close games. Iowa was 4-2 in 2009 games decided by one score. Last year it was 2-5.

And, there's this: The ball takes funny bounces.

There isn't a poll-voter or psychic working today who can see what's coming in the season ahead, so it's not like anyone's expectations really matter.