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Misleading statistics in Big Ten play last week
Oct. 19, 2011 2:44 pm
IOWA CITY - Statistics provided little more than a broken window into the complicated soul of Big Ten football success last weekend.
The numbers provided no rationale for victory in four league games. In fact, many statistics were completely misleading in the final outcome.
Wisconsin and Indiana each ran 65 offensive plays Saturday. The Badgers held a slight lead in time of possession. Yet, Wisconsin destroyed Indiana in every phase and triumphed 59-7.
Michigan State was flagged 13 times for 124 yards and gave up six first downs via penalty against rival Michigan. The Spartans shrugged off those flags and won 28-14.
Ohio State played at unbeaten Illinois. Ohio State completed only one pass, converted only 3-of-12 third-down opportunities, ran 14 fewer plays and quarterback Braxton Miller was sacked four times. But in the fourth quarter, Miller's lone completion turned into a 17-yard touchdown strike and the Buckeyes won 17-7.
“I knew we hadn't completed a pass yet so if we're going to complete one, might as well be for a touchdown,” Ohio State tight end Jake Stoneburner said.
But the king of statistical anomalies occurred in the Iowa-Northwestern game. Northwestern buried Iowa in time of possession, holding the ball for 38 minutes, 23 seconds. Northwestern's offense ran a whopping 92 plays to Iowa's 50.
“It felt like 192, I think, for all of us, and it's a credit to them,” Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said.
“I saw they had (92) plays or something,” Iowa quarterback James Vandenberg said. “I thought that was incredible. I knew we only had 22 in the first half. That was really low for us.”
Northwestern had 29 first downs to Iowa's 17. The Wildcats churned 495 yards of total offense, while Iowa gained 379 yards.
“Well, you get 500 yards, but it's not about yards,” Northwestern Coach Pat Fitzgerald said. “It's about points and the offense.”
Most amazing of all, Northwestern converted 16 of 22 third-down opportunities to Iowa's 1-of-7. Yet Iowa overcame the statistics and won convincingly, 41-31.
“We're not too worried about that stuff as long as we're putting points on the board and giving our defense a chance, and we were able to do that,” Vandenberg said.
So how were these games won? Ohio State ran for 95 more yards. The Buckeyes twice took over inside Illinois' 25 after turnovers. Ohio State converted both Illinois turnovers into touchdowns.
Michigan State outrushed Michigan by 131 yards and returned an interception for a touchdown. Wisconsin gained 8.1 yards per play, outrushed Indiana by 109 yards and returned both a punt and fumble for a touchdown. Iowa outrushed Northwestern by only 2 yards, but the Hawkeyes' yards per carry were 5.5 compared to Northwestern's 3.7. Iowa also returned an interception for a touchdown.
The usual statistics that define a football game - time of possession, plays, third-down conversions, first downs, field position, and penalties - bore no statistical relevance on Saturday. Maybe in Mark Twain's football world, statistics are nothing but lies and damned lies. That was true last weekend in the Big Ten - except for rushing yards and turnovers. Those statistics were pertinent.
Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa (7) is tackled by Iowa defensive lineman Mike Daniels (93) during the first half Saturday, Oct. 15, 2011, in Iowa City, Iowa. Iowa won 41-31. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Illinois defensive back Michael Buchanan (99) tries to hold on to Ohio State running back Dan Herron (1) during the second half Saturday, Oct. 15, 2011, in Champaign, Ill. Ohio State defeated Illinois 17-7. (AP Photo/Seth Perlman)

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