Iowa-Penn State game analysis

When the Hawkeyes have the ball

Penn State's front seven is the best the Hawkeyes will face this season, if all hands are on deck for the Nittany Lions. The availability of linebackers Navorro Bowman (groin) and Sean Lee (sprained knee) is up in the air. Bowman has missed the last two games with a right groin injury, which showed up in August. Lee leads PSU in tackles (14 solos, 18 assists) and tackles for loss (7.5).

Lee is telling coaches he wants to play. Bowman practiced some throughout the week. These decisions will probably run up to about 7:11 tonight.

If they don't go, Penn State still is pretty well fortified in the middle. Tackle Jared Odrick was Herculean in Iowa City last season and has picked up where he left off, sitting among Big Ten leaders in sacks (2.0) and tackles for loss (3.5). Odrick (295 pounds) and Ollie Ogbu (285) give Penn State the most fearsome tackle duo in the Big Ten. They will be opposite an inside trio for Iowa that hasn't seen anything like these two. Center Rafael Eubanks' health bears watching going into this.

The Hawkeyes have injury problems of their own, of course. As many as four starters are up in the air for tonight's game, including left tackle Bryan Bulaga (undisclosed illness), tight end Tony Moeaki (ankle) and wide receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. Moeaki probably has the best chance to play of the trio.

Quarterback Ricky Stanzi has started slowly in all three of Iowa's starts. In the first half, he has a pass efficiency of 93.1 and a completion percentage of 49.1. The second half has been Stanzi's half - a 72.9 completion percentage and 163.72 efficiency. Last week, he threw a pick six. Iowa might be able to live with less than 50 percent completion, but it might not survive a first-half turnover or two at Penn State.

Advantage: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions have the ball

Penn State's offense houses two of the Big Ten's marquee names this season - quarterback Daryll Clark and tailback Evan Royster. They fueled a Big Ten championship last season. So far this year, Clark has shown off his arm, earning Big Ten POW with 29 of 40 for 353 yards and three TDs in the season opener against Akron. Against Temple last week, Royster went for 134 yards and a TD.

Clark doesn't have a relay team of NFL-caliber wide receivers this season. Junior Graham Zug was the team leader with 11 receptions heading into Temple, but left the game with an apparent head injury and is a maybe today. Also, the Lions have three new starters on the O-line.

Iowa probably has an edge here. DE Adrian Clayborn vaulted into all-conference mode against Arizona last week, with three QB hurries, a sack and a forced fumble. DE Broderick Binns had a hurry and a pass broken up. DT Karl Klug played his best game of the season with a second-half sack.

Royster compiled his seventh 100-yard rushing game last week, averaging 7.1 yards a carry. Penn State is 7-0 when Royster rushes for more than 100 yards.

The Hawkeyes' best hope here is take-aways. Iowa is tied for the Big Ten lead with eight take-aways and a 1.00 turnover margin. Sophomore safety Tyler Sash leads the Big Ten and is tied for third in the nation with four interceptions. Clark and Royster give Penn State an edge, but Iowa's D-line can flip this with a full day's work.

Advantage: Penn State

Special teams

The Nits experienced some shakiness last week against Temple. They lost an onsides kick, allowed two kick returns of 30-plus yards and generated just 28 yard of their own on kick returns and nearly had a FG blocked. Punter Jeremy Boone has a live leg, averaging 47.4 yards on nine punts so far this season. Kicker Colin Wagner has made just two of four this season.

The Hawkeyes have been solid across the board on special teams. Punter Ryan Donahue is the star. He's responsible for the Hawkeyes' No. 4 national rank in net punting (42.86 yards per punt). Basically, when Donahue punts, it's a 43-yard loss for the other team. An amazing stat. Kicker Daniel Murray had a good week against Arizona, drilling his only two attempts (20, 40 yards). PSU fans know he's the man who beat them last season and they'll let him have it.

Advantage: Iowa

The Scoreboard

Iowa will have trouble with Penn State's defensive line. Penn State's offensive line will have trouble with Iowa's front four. Iowa has a decided advantage in special teams and that should work to keep this close. Injuries will factor, especially on Iowa's O-line. Bulaga got the NFL's attention with his performance against PSU's Aaron Maybin last season. Iowa has Stanzi, who's started slowly but finished with flair. Penn State is driven by two proven, high-level performers in Clark and Royster. Proven performance and “White Out” give the Lions an edge in a close game.

Penn State 28, Iowa 24