In Iowa's case, bowl speculation is useless

Every year, I say never again. Never will I fall in the trap of speculating about bowl destinations and pairings in the week before they're announced. And every year I get amnesia.

Last year, I was sure we'd have an Iowa-Nebraska Insight Bowl. Little did I know the Big 12 wouldn't give Nebraska the pleasure of going to that game to face Iowa to jump-start their new Big Ten rivalry.

Two years ago, I thought Iowa was Fiesta Bowl-bound for sure. No way would the Fiesta schedule a Boise State-TCU game. And the Hawkeyes ended in the Orange Bowl.

I could go on and on of the times I was wrong about this stuff. It's not just me, either.

A big part in factoring Iowa's bowl this year is knowing if a second Big Ten team will be eligible for a BCS bowl.

It's been given as a fact that Michigan is headed for the Sugar Bowl as the second Big Ten team in a BCS game. I went with that a couple days ago. Just one problem. You have to finish in the top 14 of the BCS standings to be eligible for a BCS bowl as an at-large team, and Michigan is No. 16 with one week to go. Here are the standings:

1

LSU

1.0000

2

Alabama

.9551

3

Oklahoma State

.8712

4

Stanford

.8559

5

Virginia Tech

.7811

6

Houston

.7399

7

Boise State

.7027

8

Arkansas

.7003

9

Oregon

.6862

10

Oklahoma

.6710

11

Kansas State

.5702

12

South Carolina

.5684

13

Michigan State

.5369

14

Georgia

.5348

15

Wisconsin

.4576

16

Michigan

.4310

17

Baylor

.3910

How does Michigan climb two spots after Saturday's games? Well, it would help if Georgia gets thumped by LSU in the SEC title game. That's one.

The Michigan State-Wisconsin winner in the Big Ten title game obviously will stay ahead of the Wolverines. The loser could plummet, but will it if the game is close? I guess so, but I have no idea.

Iowa State could knock off Kansas State to drop the Wildcats beneath Michigan. That's about it.

 And what if Baylor beats Texas Saturday? Would the Bears rise above Michigan? I don't know that, either.

So how are we supposed to figure out which bowl Iowa attends if we don't even know who's going to the Capital One or Outback bowls? I think it will be either the Insight, Meineke Car Care or TicketCity bowls for the Hawkeyes, with the Meineke my slim favorite. But I don't know. Repeat: I. Do. Not. Know.