Even with loss at Ohio State, Iowa still has a BCS shot

If Iowa wins at Ohio State (insert eyeroll) on Saturday, the Hawkeyes still have a shot at one of the five Bowl Championship Series bowls.

The winner Saturday wraps up the Big Ten's automatic BCS berth and trip to the Rose Bowl. The loser enters the at-large pool and a likely New Year's Day bowl in Florida.

Well, Iowa still looks attractive among for the other BCS bowls -- the Fiesta, Sugar and Orange -- should the Hawkeyes beat Minnesota in the finale. Here's a couple of scenarios that could put Iowa in one of those three bowls even with two losses.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

• Six of the 10 BCS slots are taken by automatic qualifiers, champions of the Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, SEC, Pac-10 and ACC conferences.
• Four spots are up for grabs. One team competing in a non-automatic BCS conference automatically qualifies for a BCS bowl if it is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS rankings. The others enter the at-large pool and do not automatically qualify.
• Notre Dame and other at-large teams can qualify for a BCS bowl if they have at least nine wins and rank in the final 14.
• Only two teams from a conference can participate in BCS bowls

 FIRST (AND MORE LOGICAL) AT-LARGE SCENARIO FOR IOWA

• The SEC will send a second team to the BCS, presumably the Alabama-Florida loser.
• One of the non-automatic powerhouses -- either Boise State or TCU -- will qualify for a BCS bowl. The other, if unbeaten, should qualify because the BCS bowls cave to political pressure. That takes two spots.
• Runners-up for the Big 12, ACC and Big East conferences lack credentials (at best a three-loss team in the Big 12) or fan power (non-traveling teams from the Big East and ACC have two losses each). Georgia Tech appears likely to take the ACC crown and automatic Orange Bowl berth, and Miami doesn't travel well to other bowls.
• Notre Dame has virtually no shot at the top 14.
• That leaves one open spot, pitting the Big Ten against the Pac-10. That's when the lobbying comes in. USC brings eyeballs on TV, while Iowa brings fans.

SECOND (AND LESS LOGICAL) AT-LARGE SCENARIO

• The SEC will send a second team to the BCS, presumably the Alabama-Florida loser.
• One of the non-automatic powerhouses -- either Boise State or TCU -- will qualify for a BCS bowl. If the other loses, such as TCU against Utah this week, there's no way it plays in the BCS. That opens up two spots.
• The Big Ten will claim one of the automatic spots. A 10-2 Iowa team beats a 10-2 Penn State team for one of the openings.

SO WHERE WOULD IOWA GO?

Not the Rose Bowl, that's for sure, or the BCS championship. The Fiesta and Sugar bowls would get two picks each for losing their automatic qualifiers to the national title game (Fiesta with  Texas, Sugar with Florida-Alabama winner). The Sugar Bowl would take the SEC runner-up based on tradition, while the Fiesta Bowl isn't beholden to a Big 12 runner-up.

After the Sugar (presuming it loses the BCS' No.1 team) and the Fiesta (the BCS' No. 2 team) makes their picks, the Orange Bowl picks next, followed by the Fiesta and Sugar.

Under the first scenario placing Iowa in a BCS bowl, here's how the bowls would play out:

• BCS Championship: Alabama/Florida vs. Texas -- almost a done deal
• Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon -- looks like a good game
• Sugar: Florida/Alabama vs. Cincinnati -- Cincinnati is an automatic qualifier and the last pick 
• Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa -- Tickets are the key
• Fiesta: TCU vs Boise State -- Other scenario that could knock off Iowa would have USC in the Fiesta Bowl and move one of these others to the Orange or Sugar.

Under the second scenario placing Iowa in a BCS bowl, here's how the bowls would play out:

• BCS Championship: Alabama/Florida vs. Texas -- see above
• Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon -- see above
• Sugar: Florida/Alabama vs. Cincinnati -- see above
• Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa 
• Fiesta: USC vs. TCU

Of course, all of this posturing is moot if Iowa beats Ohio State on Saturday.