Divisional equity crucial to Big Ten realignment efforts

CHICAGO -- Statistics, tradition and rhetoric are against a Big Ten East-West split along the Illinois-Indiana border.

Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany said in June competitive balance is the first criteria when determining divisional alignment, followed by rivalries and geography. Delany reiterated those principles earlier this week at Big Ten Media Days in Chicago.

The Big Ten plans to split into two divisions in 2011, when Nebraska joins the conference as its 12th team. Within the next 45 days, Big Ten officials will finalize the divisional set-up, and the league will complete the 2011 season with a conference title game in Indianapolis.

To develop an equitable divisional structure, Big Ten officials compiled team win-loss records and other data from 1993 through 2009, a 17-year sample. He called it the Big Ten's "modern" era ushered in by Penn State's inclusion, plus the lowering of scholarships from 93 to 85 and the precursor to the Bowl Championship Series.

A snake method (1-4-5-8-9-12, 2-3-6-7-10-11) based on league wins over a 17-year-period, divisions lined up almost equally. One division would comprise Ohio State (106 wins), Penn State (86), Wisconsin (79), Purdue (63), Northwestern (59) and Indiana. The other would include Nebraska (96), Michigan (94), Iowa (71), Michigan State (63), Illinois (45) and Minnesota (44). The league could then preserve long-time rivalries like Michigan-Ohio State and Minnesota-Wisconsin by designating those games as annual rivalries.

"If it's not a competitive setup, I think we'll all regret it later," Iowa Athletics Director Gary Barta said. "No. 1, let's make sure however we set this up that it's competitive over a long period of time. No. 2, how many of these rivalries can we protect. It became apparent to me that they all might not get protected, but it looks like we'll get to protect almost all of them. No. 3, geographically, is there a way to take those first two and then make it make sense geographically? I think we're getting close."

Another divisional hybrid providing the most balance could include an East-West combination that flips Penn State to the West for Northwestern. An eastern division of Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue and Northwestern posted 418 league wins since 1993, compared to 421 for Nebraska, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois.

When taking Delany's principles in reverse order, a geographical split might have merit. Obviously, geography is solved and rivalries largely remain in place. Of the league's 22 designated rivalries that are played annually, only two -- Northwestern-Purdue, Illinois-Indiana -- would be interrupted.

The competitive balance is skewed toward the east, both historically and with data. Eastern schools have won 445 league games since 1993, compared the western group's 394. Three of the league's four winningest programs since 1993 -- Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State -- hail from the Big Ten's east. Those three schools have played in a combined 19 BCS bowl games since 1993. Only one other eastern school, Purdue, has played in one. Indiana, an eastern division, had only 33 wins over the 17-year-period, 11 less than Minnesota, the second-lowest.

But the west is more balanced. In the west, five schools have played in a combined 16 BCS bowl games since 1993. Nebraska, which joins the Big Ten in 2011, boasts the second-most conference and overall wins since 1993. Iowa and Wisconsin have winning Big Ten records over the same span and combined to play in five BCS bowls.

"I'd be shocked if it was a geographical split," Wisconsin Athletics Director Barry Alvarez said in a previous interview.

Although history doesn't favor an equal East-West split, current factors might make it a consideration. Historical power Michigan is coming off a 1-7 last-place league finish, and Minnesota just built a $288.5 million stadium which could boost the program's recruiting profile.

"I think competitive fairness from the perspective of the coach, the player, the fan, media, it's got to be seen in those divisions," Delany said. "But they also have to be constructed in a wise way that does everything we can within that first principle or consistent with that first principle to preserve traditional rivals."